Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from November 6 to November 13, 2026?
10 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold No (83%) · No at 100¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 13
⚠️
Avoid
No
12
No 83%
$1.2K
$2.46
99.3¢ → 99.7¢
+0% since entry · 10 traders
Research grade
AvoidNo at 100%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Culture / mentionsFull year, out of sample: culture lost −4.0 % a trade (n 1,214, 95 % CI −9.7 to +2.0); Oct 22 backtest: −7.1 % and −15.4 % in its two windows.
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
10 of 12 top traders (83%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
10 traders
Top 2 hold 63%
Freshness
Fresh
10h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
83% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 63% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Lucerys | Noavg 99.3¢ | $614.33 | $615.55 | +$1.24 | 37% 3204-5379 (8583) |
CI cigarettes | Noavg 99.1¢ | $176.6 | $177.56 | +$0.96 | 53% 5667-5090 (10757) |
 balthazar<$100 | Noavg 99.5¢ | $99.5 | $99.5 | +$0 | 51% 4654-4528 (9182) |
AK akroll<$100 | Noavg 99.5¢ | $91.5 | $91.5 | -$0 | 28% 521-1360 (1881) |
HA haveagoodday<$100 | Noavg 99.5¢ | $74.63 | $74.63 | +$0 | 40% 1456-2158 (3614) |
NO northdrawer<$100 | Noavg 99.5¢ | $59.7 | $59.7 | +$0 | 27% 936-2514 (3450) |
PO pollo07<$100 | Noavg 99.5¢ | $55.72 | $55.72 | +$0 | 27% 499-1317 (1816) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 99.3¢ | $21.03 | $21.06 | +$0.03 | 54% 562-474 (1036) |
XT xtxpleasecallme<$100 | Noavg 96.3¢ | $19.99 | $20.65 | +$0.65 | 41% 3118-4481 (7599) |
QW qwen300.fund<$100 | Noavg 99.6¢ | $19.92 | $19.9 | -$0.02 | 30% 2714-6211 (8925) |
QU quiet-ferretCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.4¢ | $1.96 | $1.8 | +$0 | 8% 9-104 (113) |
 LinaBell🦊CTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.5¢ | $2.02 | $1.62 | -$0.4 | — 0-9 (9) |
LucerysInvested
$614.33
Value
$615.55
PnL
+$1.24
Record
37%
3204-5379 (8583)
Invested
$176.6
Value
$177.56
PnL
+$0.96
Record
53%
5667-5090 (10757)
balthazar<$100Invested
$99.5
Value
$99.5
PnL
+$0
Record
51%
4654-4528 (9182)
Invested
$91.5
Value
$91.5
PnL
-$0
Record
28%
521-1360 (1881)
Invested
$74.63
Value
$74.63
PnL
+$0
Record
40%
1456-2158 (3614)
Invested
$59.7
Value
$59.7
PnL
+$0
Record
27%
936-2514 (3450)
Invested
$55.72
Value
$55.72
PnL
+$0
Record
27%
499-1317 (1816)
Invested
$21.03
Value
$21.06
PnL
+$0.03
Record
54%
562-474 (1036)
Invested
$19.99
Value
$20.65
PnL
+$0.65
Record
41%
3118-4481 (7599)
Invested
$19.92
Value
$19.9
PnL
-$0.02
Record
30%
2714-6211 (8925)
Invested
$1.96
Value
$1.8
PnL
+$0
Record
8%
9-104 (113)
LinaBell🦊CTR<$100Invested
$2.02
Value
$1.62
PnL
-$0.4
Record
—
0-9 (9)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.7¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.