Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from November 6 to November 13, 2026?

10 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold No (91%) · No at 92¢ · $7K held · ends Nov 13

Yes9¢No91¢Ends Fri, Nov 13, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Consensus Traders

No 91%

Total Value

$6.9K

Combined PnL

-$60.56

Smart Money Entry

94.3¢ → 91.5¢

-3% since entry · 10 traders

Research grade

AvoidNo at 92%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Culture / mentionsFull year, out of sample: culture lost −4.0 % a trade (n 1,214, 95 % CI −9.7 to +2.0); Oct 22 backtest: −7.1 % and −15.4 % in its two windows.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

10 of 11 top traders (91%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes9%

No92%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No10 traders

Total Value$6.8K

Total Shares7,414

Combined PnL-$156.88

Yes1 trader

Total Value$105.55

Total Shares2,030

Combined PnL+$96.32

No — 91%Yes — 9%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

10 traders

Top 2 hold 89%

Freshness

Late

146h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

91% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 89% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Yes) and the top 1000 (10 on No) disagree here.

sharpNo 100% · 5

Aligned

ctrNo 50% · 2

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 100% · 10

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
QU quiet-ferret	Noavg 94¢	$5.6K	$5.5K	-$107.73	8% 9-104 (113)
Lucerys	Noavg 95.4¢	$590.19	$570.4	-$19.79	37% 3197-5378 (8575)
GH ghorrock	Noavg 97.1¢	$283.51	$185.22	-$14.28	54% 553-469 (1022)
CI cigarettes	Noavg 97.4¢	$145.35	$137.54	-$7.8	53% 5656-5081 (10737)
XT xtxpleasecallme	Noavg 93.2¢	$113.36	$113.06	-$0.31	41% 3115-4481 (7596)
LinaBell🦊CTR	Yesavg 0.5¢	$9.23	$105.55	+$96.32	— 0-9 (9)
BI Bigggggggg	Noavg 94¢	$102.51	$100.5	-$2.01	53% 1609-1415 (3024)
PO pollo07<$100	Noavg 94.9¢	$76.9	$74.68	-$2.22	27% 499-1317 (1816)
MI mildwindow27<$100	Noavg 93.9¢	$70.43	$69.15	-$1.27	29% 882-2138 (3020)
GR graynotebook19<$100	Noavg 93.8¢	$28.14	$27.66	-$0.48	26% 860-2483 (3343)
GO god83743894<$100	Noavg 95.5¢	$28.65	$27.66	-$0.99	17% 66-330 (396)

quiet-ferret

Invested

$5,639.32

Value

$5.5K

PnL

-$107.73

Record

9-104 (113)

Lucerys

Invested

$590.19

Value

$570.4

PnL

-$19.79

Record

37%

3197-5378 (8575)

ghorrock

Invested

$283.51

Value

$185.22

PnL

-$14.28

Record

54%

553-469 (1022)

cigarettes

Invested

$145.35

Value

$137.54

PnL

-$7.8

Record

53%

5656-5081 (10737)

xtxpleasecallme

Invested

$113.36

Value

$113.06

PnL

-$0.31

Record

41%

3115-4481 (7596)

LinaBell🦊CTR

Yes

Invested

$9.23

Value

$105.55

PnL

+$96.32

Record

—

0-9 (9)

Bigggggggg

Invested

$102.51

Value

$100.5

PnL

-$2.01

Record

53%

1609-1415 (3024)

pollo07<$100

Invested

$76.9

Value

$74.68

PnL

-$2.22

Record

27%

499-1317 (1816)

mildwindow27<$100

Invested

$70.43

Value

$69.15

PnL

-$1.27

Record

29%

882-2138 (3020)

graynotebook19<$100

Invested

$28.14

Value

$27.66

PnL

-$0.48

Record

26%

860-2483 (3343)

god83743894<$100

Invested

$28.65

Value

$27.66

PnL

-$0.99

Record

17%

66-330 (396)

Research grade

AvoidNo at 92%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Culture / mentionsFull year, out of sample: culture lost −4.0 % a trade (n 1,214, 95 % CI −9.7 to +2.0); Oct 22 backtest: −7.1 % and −15.4 % in its two windows.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

10 of 11 top traders (91%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

10 traders

Top 2 hold 89%

Freshness

Late

146h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

91% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 89% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Yes) and the top 1000 (10 on No) disagree here.

sharpNo 100% · 5

Aligned

ctrNo 50% · 2

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 100% · 10

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance92.8%

91.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$7.70

Max Loss

-$100.00

107.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.