Salford City FC vs. Northampton Town FC: O/U 2.5

8 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold Under (62%) · Under at 100¢ · $7K held · ended Nov 14

Over<1¢Under>99¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 62%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$7.0K

Combined PnL

$1.2K

Smart Money Entry

75¢ → 100¢

+33% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

8 of 13 top traders (62%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Over0%

Under100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under8 traders

Total Value$5.7K

Total Shares5,768

Combined PnL+$1.4K

Over5 traders

Total Value$1.2K

Total Shares5,922

Combined PnL-$185.82

Under — 62%Over — 38%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp	Underavg 64.4¢	$1.8K	$2.9K	+$1.0K	49% 3821-3983 (7804)
DA dashattacker	Underavg 87.1¢	$2.4K	$2.8K	+$357.28	64% 300-171 (471)
JA JabJabichCTR	Overavg 34.3¢	$936.58	$984.24	+$47.66	31% 29-66 (95)
RA rabbitfoot1CTR	Overavg 50¢	$112.66	$114.91	+$2.25	4% 14-384 (398)
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100	Overavg 35.5¢	$97.1	$99.35	+$2.25	53% 2085-1830 (3915)
└ Under leg	Underavg 47.9¢	$40.68	$68.34	+$27.66
└ Over leg	Overavg 35.5¢	$56.42	$31.01	-$25.41
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Overavg 1.6¢	$8.4	$91.88	+$83.48	36% 933-1644 (2577)
FE ferdinand2<$100	Underavg 68¢	$26.35	$38.73	+$12.38	48% 2074-2236 (4310)
MA MadridTime<$100	Underavg 40.4¢	$24.05	$32.47	+$8.42	37% 970-1635 (2605)
LI LightParadox<$100	Underavg 32¢	$3.92	$6.68	+$2.76	37% 960-1662 (2622)
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100	Overavg 11¢	$11.11	$6.57	-$4.55	35% 440-800 (1240)
ARTEM-DZYUBA<$100	Underavg 90¢	$4.5	$4.53	+$0.03	82% 709-151 (860)
SU suntori<$100	Underavg 63¢	$1.9	$3.01	+$1.11	46% 2653-3138 (5791)
VE VenusianCTR	Overavg 13.5¢	$315.83	$1.17	-$314.66	36% 948-1669 (2617)
poshposh<$100	Underavg 65¢	$1.08	$1.11	+$0.03	49% 1117-1185 (2302)

Flaznorp

Under

Invested

$1,849.48

Value

$2.9K

PnL

+$1.0K

Record

49%

3821-3983 (7804)

dashattacker

Under

Invested

$2,416.58

Value

$2.8K

PnL

+$357.28

Record

64%

300-171 (471)

JabJabichCTR

Over

Invested

$936.58

Value

$984.24

PnL

+$47.66

Record

31%

29-66 (95)

rabbitfoot1CTR

Over

Invested

$112.66

Value

$114.91

PnL

+$2.25

Record

14-384 (398)

GoalLineGhostARB<$100

Over

Invested

$97.1

Value

$99.35

PnL

+$2.25

Record

53%

2085-1830 (3915)

Both legs:

Under$40.6847.9¢+$27.66

Over$56.4235.5¢-$25.41

LimousinCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$8.4

Value

$91.88

PnL

+$83.48

Record

36%

933-1644 (2577)

ferdinand2<$100

Under

Invested

$26.35

Value

$38.73

PnL

+$12.38

Record

48%

2074-2236 (4310)

MadridTime<$100

Under

Invested

$24.05

Value

$32.47

PnL

+$8.42

Record

37%

970-1635 (2605)

LightParadox<$100

Under

Invested

$3.92

Value

$6.68

PnL

+$2.76

Record

37%

960-1662 (2622)

LuckyLooCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$11.11

Value

$6.57

PnL

-$4.55

Record

35%

440-800 (1240)

ARTEM-DZYUBA<$100

Under

Invested

$4.5

Value

$4.53

PnL

+$0.03

Record

82%

709-151 (860)

suntori<$100

Under

Invested

$1.9

Value

$3.01

PnL

+$1.11

Record

46%

2653-3138 (5791)

VenusianCTR

Over

Invested

$315.83

Value

$1.17

PnL

-$314.66

Record

36%

948-1669 (2617)

poshposh<$100

Under

Invested

$1.08

Value

$1.11

PnL

+$0.03

Record

49%

1117-1185 (2302)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

Smart Money Signal

Under

8 of 13 top traders (62%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.