Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (56%). 9 of 10 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Wigan Athletic FC vs. Barnsley FC: O/U 3.5

9 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Over (90%) · Over at 45¢ · $13K held · ends Nov 14

Over45¢Under55¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 90%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$12.7K

Combined PnL

$-1.5K

Smart Money Entry

43¢ → 44.5¢

+4% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 45%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

9 of 10 top traders (90%)Underdog side (market favors Under 56%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over45%

Under56%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over9 traders

Total Value$11.2K

Total Shares29,490

Combined PnL$-1.5K

Under1 trader

Total Value$1.2K

Total Shares2,219

Combined PnL-$33.28

Over — 90%Under — 10%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465CTR	Overavg 43¢	$11.2K	$9.8K	$-1.4K	51% 3849-3640 (7489)
CUTJALENHURTS	Underavg 57¢	$1.3K	$1.2K	-$33.28	52% 2626-2464 (5090)
SE sentrioCTR	Overavg 43¢	$677.55	$685.43	+$7.88	43% 949-1283 (2232)
MO mouzsynapseCTR	Overavg 43¢	$401.86	$350.46	-$51.4	40% 110-167 (277)
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100	Underavg 55.9¢	$296.6	$299.48	+$2.88	54% 2027-1761 (3788)
└ Under leg	Underavg 55.9¢	$174.6	$173.23	-$1.37
└ Over leg	Overavg 43¢	$122	$126.26	+$4.26
FL FlaznorpCTR	Overavg 42.2¢	$272.47	$281.03	+$8.56	49% 3640-3753 (7393)
ZT ZTMZqClEsjMmwCDWXoGCTR<$100	Overavg 44.1¢	$38.27	$38.63	+$0.36	34% 242-477 (719)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100	Overavg 43¢	$43	$37.5	-$5.5	53% 1232-1075 (2307)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Overavg 43¢	$28.81	$25.13	-$3.68	56% 434-347 (781)
0X 0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382CTR<$100	Overavg 43¢	$13.33	$11.63	-$1.71	48% 269-290 (559)
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100	Overavg 38¢	$1.9	$1.88	-$0.02	48% 1953-2074 (4027)

0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465CTR

Over

Invested

$11,198.67

Value

$9.8K

PnL

$-1.4K

Record

51%

3849-3640 (7489)

CUTJALENHURTS

Under

Invested

$1,264.8

Value

$1.2K

PnL

-$33.28

Record

52%

2626-2464 (5090)

sentrioCTR

Over

Invested

$677.55

Value

$685.43

PnL

+$7.88

Record

43%

949-1283 (2232)

mouzsynapseCTR

Over

Invested

$401.86

Value

$350.46

PnL

-$51.4

Record

40%

110-167 (277)

GoalLineGhostARB<$100

Under

Invested

$296.6

Value

$299.48

PnL

+$2.88

Record

54%

2027-1761 (3788)

Both legs:

Under$174.655.9¢-$1.37

Over$12243¢+$4.26

FlaznorpCTR

Over

Invested

$272.47

Value

$281.03

PnL

+$8.56

Record

49%

3640-3753 (7393)

ZTMZqClEsjMmwCDWXoGCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$38.27

Value

$38.63

PnL

+$0.36

Record

34%

242-477 (719)

VeryLucky888CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$43

Value

$37.5

PnL

-$5.5

Record

53%

1232-1075 (2307)

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$28.81

Value

$25.13

PnL

-$3.68

Record

56%

434-347 (781)

0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$13.33

Value

$11.63

PnL

-$1.71

Record

48%

269-290 (559)

ferdinand2CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$1.9

Value

$1.88

PnL

-$0.02

Record

48%

1953-2074 (4027)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 45%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Over

9 of 10 top traders (90%)Underdog side (market favors Under 56%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance46.7%

44.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$113.95

Max Loss

-$100.00

214.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.