Dota 2: Aurora vs CyberHero - Game 2 Winner

20 of 34 top Polymarket traders hold Aurora (59%) · Aurora at 63¢ · $120K held · ends Nov 15

Aurora63¢CyberHero37¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Aurora

Consensus Traders

Aurora 59%

8 arb excluded

Total Value

$120.1K

Combined PnL

$4.5K

Smart Money Entry

64.6¢ → 62.5¢

-3% since entry · 20 traders

Research grade

NeutralAurora at 63%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Aurora

20 of 34 top traders (59%)8 arbitrage traders dimmed14 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Aurora63%

CyberHero38%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Aurora20 traders

Total Value$85.4K

Total Shares116,041

Combined PnL+$5.2K

CyberHero14 traders

Total Value$16.0K

Total Shares57,214

Combined PnL-$737.85

Aurora — 59%CyberHero — 41%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GE GeorgeRe	Auroraavg 68.6¢	$18.8K	$19.7K	+$1.9K	53% 718-649 (1367)
UN UNIVERSEMVP	Auroraavg 54.2¢	$14.9K	$11.3K	+$2.6K	37% 63-109 (172)
GX gxxyy	Auroraavg 68¢	$9.4K	$10.3K	+$905.25	69% 511-228 (739)
RA RandomVibecoderARB<$100	CyberHeroavg 45.6¢	$8.9K	$7.6K	$-1.2K	48% 538-589 (1127)
└ Aurora leg	Auroraavg 62.2¢	$4.0K	$4.5K	+$557.74
└ CyberHero leg	CyberHeroavg 45.6¢	$4.8K	$3.1K	$-1.8K
SC Scrip-scrip	Auroraavg 75¢	$7.5K	$7.5K	+$50	18% 4-18 (22)
Tolkonevminus2	Auroraavg 65.3¢	$6.5K	$6.8K	+$365.25	48% 74-81 (155)
JA JabamiYumekosRBQARB<$100	Auroraavg 66.8¢	$7.7K	$6.7K	-$689.32	74% 23-8 (31)
└ Aurora leg	Auroraavg 66.8¢	$5.0K	$5.3K	+$311.36
└ CyberHero leg	CyberHeroavg 47.1¢	$2.3K	$1.4K	$-1.0K
relativesignificance	Auroraavg 75¢	$9.3K	$6.4K	+$97.71	55% 163-133 (296)
0X 0xE16D3F2A5807999b358aFfD9445C3a09E45E5e30-1776429210592CTR	CyberHeroavg 25¢	$5.3K	$5.4K	+$106.97	47% 475-539 (1014)
0X 0x6453Db824e2bFa4eAcE63b16F716ba663cf66a16-1740178698115	Auroraavg 45.7¢	$3.7K	$3.6K	-$97.72	17% 17-84 (101)
Hawk.live	Auroraavg 58.3¢	$3.0K	$3.6K	+$581.2	57% 693-519 (1212)
DamwonChampions2026	Auroraavg 58.5¢	$3.2K	$3.2K	+$79.01	55% 24-20 (44)
cat3xcat3x	Auroraavg 66.1¢	$9.4K	$3.2K	$-1.0K	5% 10-183 (193)
0xheavy888	Auroraavg 60.6¢	$2.7K	$2.7K	+$63.64	55% 515-424 (939)
KA KaguyaNgCTR	CyberHeroavg 24.4¢	$2.4K	$2.5K	+$112.05	— 6-1 (7)
errormarginCTR	CyberHeroavg 31¢	$2.0K	$2.4K	+$448.11	8% 16-186 (202)
QW qwerqr1251251ARB<$100	Auroraavg 72.6¢	$2.7K	$2.1K	-$395.51	25% 55-162 (217)
└ Aurora leg	Auroraavg 72.6¢	$1.3K	$1.3K	-$22.14
└ CyberHero leg	CyberHeroavg 40.3¢	$1.2K	$802.5	-$373.37
Tolkonevminus3	Auroraavg 79¢	$2.0K	$1.9K	-$112.5	57% 39-29 (68)
minji	Auroraavg 59.6¢	$1.8K	$1.9K	+$71.61	53% 24-21 (45)
FatsLivesMatterCTR	CyberHeroavg 35.5¢	$2.4K	$1.8K	-$535.12	23% 21-71 (92)
JU JuiceFarm	Auroraavg 74¢	$1.4K	$1.2K	-$226.38	57% 50-37 (87)
NO NotJump	Auroraavg 57.8¢	$3.1K	$1.1K	-$78.6	52% 883-823 (1706)
TO TommyLeePeecaARB<$100	Auroraavg 68.1¢	$8.6K	$1.1K	-$1.53	21% 60-226 (286)
└ Aurora leg	Auroraavg 68.1¢	$700.36	$638.03	-$898.03
└ CyberHero leg	CyberHeroavg 36.1¢	$422.56	$444.4	+$896.5
BU BunnycatCTR	CyberHeroavg 56.3¢	$2.0K	$905.29	$-1.1K	57% 29-22 (51)
NO nomoredreamCTR	CyberHeroavg 33.8¢	$914.57	$743.24	-$171.33	43% 67-90 (157)

GeorgeRe

Aurora

Invested

$18,779.44

Value

$19.7K

PnL

+$1.9K

Record

53%

718-649 (1367)

UNIVERSEMVP

Aurora

Invested

$14,930.7

Value

$11.3K

PnL

+$2.6K

Record

37%

63-109 (172)

gxxyy

Aurora

Invested

$9,405.59

Value

$10.3K

PnL

+$905.25

Record

69%

511-228 (739)

RandomVibecoderARB<$100

CyberHero

Invested

$8,915.58

Value

$7.6K

PnL

$-1.2K

Record

48%

538-589 (1127)

Both legs:

Aurora$3,966.5662.2¢+$557.74

CyberHero$4,823.9945.6¢$-1.8K

Scrip-scrip

Aurora

Invested

$7,500

Value

$7.5K

PnL

+$50

Record

18%

4-18 (22)

Tolkonevminus2

Aurora

Invested

$6,484.17

Value

$6.8K

PnL

+$365.25

Record

48%

74-81 (155)

JabamiYumekosRBQARB<$100

Aurora

Invested

$7,691.91

Value

$6.7K

PnL

-$689.32

Record

74%

23-8 (31)

Both legs:

Aurora$4,954.8166.8¢+$311.36

CyberHero$2,265.4447.1¢$-1.0K

relativesignificance

Aurora

Invested

$9,335.45

Value

$6.4K

PnL

+$97.71

Record

55%

163-133 (296)

0xE16D3F2A5807999b358aFfD9445C3a09E45E5e30-1776429210592CTR

CyberHero

Invested

$5,300

Value

$5.4K

PnL

+$106.97

Record

47%

475-539 (1014)

0x6453Db824e2bFa4eAcE63b16F716ba663cf66a16-1740178698115

Aurora

Invested

$3,708.35

Value

$3.6K

PnL

-$97.72

Record

17%

17-84 (101)

Hawk.live

Aurora

Invested

$2,969.22

Value

$3.6K

PnL

+$581.2

Record

57%

693-519 (1212)

DamwonChampions2026

Aurora

Invested

$3,155.09

Value

$3.2K

PnL

+$79.01

Record

55%

24-20 (44)

cat3xcat3x

Aurora

Invested

$9,351.2

Value

$3.2K

PnL

$-1.0K

Record

10-183 (193)

0xheavy888

Aurora

Invested

$2,659.84

Value

$2.7K

PnL

+$63.64

Record

55%

515-424 (939)

KaguyaNgCTR

CyberHero

Invested

$2,390.55

Value

$2.5K

PnL

+$112.05

Record

—

6-1 (7)

errormarginCTR

CyberHero

Invested

$2,000

Value

$2.4K

PnL

+$448.11

Record

16-186 (202)

qwerqr1251251ARB<$100

Aurora

Invested

$2,749.11

Value

$2.1K

PnL

-$395.51

Record

25%

55-162 (217)

Both legs:

Aurora$1,345.9772.6¢-$22.14

CyberHero$1,175.8740.3¢-$373.37

Tolkonevminus3

Aurora

Invested

$1,974.97

Value

$1.9K

PnL

-$112.5

Record

57%

39-29 (68)

minji

Aurora

Invested

$1,788.39

Value

$1.9K

PnL

+$71.61

Record

53%

24-21 (45)

FatsLivesMatterCTR

CyberHero

Invested

$2,369.08

Value

$1.8K

PnL

-$535.12

Record

23%

21-71 (92)

JuiceFarm

Aurora

Invested

$1,396

Value

$1.2K

PnL

-$226.38

Record

57%

50-37 (87)

NotJump

Aurora

Invested

$3,098.52

Value

$1.1K

PnL

-$78.6

Record

52%

883-823 (1706)

TommyLeePeecaARB<$100

Aurora

Invested

$8,611.73

Value

$1.1K

PnL

-$1.53

Record

21%

60-226 (286)

Both legs:

Aurora$700.3668.1¢-$898.03

CyberHero$422.5636.1¢+$896.5

BunnycatCTR

CyberHero

Invested

$2,000

Value

$905.29

PnL

$-1.1K

Record

57%

29-22 (51)

nomoredreamCTR

CyberHero

Invested

$914.57

Value

$743.24

PnL

-$171.33

Record

43%

67-90 (157)

Research grade

NeutralAurora at 63%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Aurora

20 of 34 top traders (59%)8 arbitrage traders dimmed14 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Aurora wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance64.7%

62.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$54.66

Max Loss

-$100.00

154.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.