Dota 2: Aurora vs CyberHero - Game 1 Winner

17 of 33 top Polymarket traders hold Aurora (52%) · Aurora at 99¢ · $77K held · ends Nov 15

Aurora99¢CyberHero1¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Aurora

Consensus Traders

Aurora 52%

Total Value

$76.8K

Combined PnL

$1.1K

Smart Money Entry

79.3¢ → 98.8¢

+25% since entry · 17 traders

Research grade

NeutralAurora at 99%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Aurora

17 of 33 top traders (52%)16 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Aurora99%

CyberHero1%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Aurora17 traders

Total Value$73.8K

Total Shares77,672

Combined PnL+$12.0K

CyberHero16 traders

Total Value$3.0K

Total Shares53,420

Combined PnL$-11.0K

Aurora — 52%CyberHero — 48%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GE GeorgeRe	Auroraavg 77.4¢	$19.5K	$24.9K	+$5.4K	53% 718-648 (1366)
Tolkonevminus2	Auroraavg 71.4¢	$7.1K	$9.9K	+$2.7K	47% 71-81 (152)
EX Excentrico	Auroraavg 82.3¢	$6.6K	$7.9K	+$1.3K	8% 12-133 (145)
YA yadens	Auroraavg 88.8¢	$6.6K	$7.3K	+$721.47	28% 33-84 (117)
GE GEAEW	Auroraavg 81¢	$7.2K	$7.1K	-$133.32	68% 19-9 (28)
R2 r2d2v2	Auroraavg 78¢	$3.5K	$3.6K	+$22.61	14% 31-186 (217)
QW qwerqr1251251	Auroraavg 93¢	$3.0K	$3.2K	+$130.53	25% 54-162 (216)
relativesignificance	Auroraavg 79.5¢	$2.8K	$2.9K	+$141.8	55% 162-133 (295)
JE jelly2026	Auroraavg 77.3¢	$4.3K	$2.8K	+$1.1K	54% 91-76 (167)
SC Scrip-scripCTR	CyberHeroavg 19¢	$1.9K	$1.9K	+$50	19% 4-17 (21)
BU Bunnycat	Auroraavg 75.2¢	$1,000	$1.3K	+$315.06	56% 28-22 (50)
PI pipipi150	Auroraavg 62¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	-$7.37	68% 73-35 (108)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh	Auroraavg 75.8¢	$628.73	$588.01	-$40.73	50% 2543-2505 (5048)
JA JabamiYumekosRBQ	Auroraavg 81.3¢	$1.6K	$445.33	+$277.06	73% 22-8 (30)
0X 0x6453Db824e2bFa4eAcE63b16F716ba663cf66a16-1740178698115CTR	CyberHeroavg 20¢	$364	$409.5	+$45.5	17% 17-83 (100)
0X 0xE16D3F2A5807999b358aFfD9445C3a09E45E5e30-1776429210592CTR	CyberHeroavg 20.4¢	$5.1K	$375.4	$-4.7K	47% 474-538 (1012)
TO TommyLeePeeca	Auroraavg 89.2¢	$3.0K	$302.24	-$47.09	21% 60-226 (286)
NO NotJump	Auroraavg 90.7¢	$3.0K	$288.33	-$33.4	52% 852-801 (1653)
RA RandomVibecoder	Auroraavg 68.7¢	$381.36	$270.18	+$64.51	48% 537-588 (1125)
cat3xcat3xCTR	CyberHeroavg 27.8¢	$3.8K	$95.72	$-2.8K	5% 10-182 (192)
minjiCTR	CyberHeroavg 23¢	$1.0K	$48.94	-$973.46	55% 24-20 (44)
errormarginCTR	CyberHeroavg 32¢	$1.0K	$32.81	-$967.19	8% 16-185 (201)
0xheavy888CTR	CyberHeroavg 31¢	$465	$22.5	-$442.5	54% 503-422 (925)
DamwonChampions2026CTR	CyberHeroavg 28.6¢	$399.95	$20.95	-$379.01	56% 24-19 (43)
Up0nlyCTR	CyberHeroavg 28.3¢	$679.99	$17.47	-$640.94	61% 28-18 (46)

GeorgeRe

Aurora

Invested

$19,463.42

Value

$24.9K

PnL

+$5.4K

Record

53%

718-648 (1366)

Tolkonevminus2

Aurora

Invested

$7,109.78

Value

$9.9K

PnL

+$2.7K

Record

47%

71-81 (152)

Excentrico

Aurora

Invested

$6,554.99

Value

$7.9K

PnL

+$1.3K

Record

12-133 (145)

yadens

Aurora

Invested

$6,609.47

Value

$7.3K

PnL

+$721.47

Record

28%

33-84 (117)

GEAEW

Aurora

Invested

$7,199.27

Value

$7.1K

PnL

-$133.32

Record

68%

19-9 (28)

r2d2v2

Aurora

Invested

$3,527.57

Value

$3.6K

PnL

+$22.61

Record

14%

31-186 (217)

qwerqr1251251

Aurora

Invested

$3,038.34

Value

$3.2K

PnL

+$130.53

Record

25%

54-162 (216)

relativesignificance

Aurora

Invested

$2,784.26

Value

$2.9K

PnL

+$141.8

Record

55%

162-133 (295)

jelly2026

Aurora

Invested

$4,292.79

Value

$2.8K

PnL

+$1.1K

Record

54%

91-76 (167)

Scrip-scripCTR

CyberHero

Invested

$1,900

Value

$1.9K

PnL

+$50

Record

19%

4-17 (21)

Bunnycat

Aurora

Invested

$1,000

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$315.06

Record

56%

28-22 (50)

pipipi150

Aurora

Invested

$1,135.14

Value

$1.1K

PnL

-$7.37

Record

68%

73-35 (108)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh

Aurora

Invested

$628.73

Value

$588.01

PnL

-$40.73

Record

50%

2543-2505 (5048)

JabamiYumekosRBQ

Aurora

Invested

$1,624.99

Value

$445.33

PnL

+$277.06

Record

73%

22-8 (30)

0x6453Db824e2bFa4eAcE63b16F716ba663cf66a16-1740178698115CTR

CyberHero

Invested

$364

Value

$409.5

PnL

+$45.5

Record

17%

17-83 (100)

0xE16D3F2A5807999b358aFfD9445C3a09E45E5e30-1776429210592CTR

CyberHero

Invested

$5,100

Value

$375.4

PnL

$-4.7K

Record

47%

474-538 (1012)

TommyLeePeeca

Aurora

Invested

$3,016.84

Value

$302.24

PnL

-$47.09

Record

21%

60-226 (286)

NotJump

Aurora

Invested

$2,970

Value

$288.33

PnL

-$33.4

Record

52%

852-801 (1653)

RandomVibecoder

Aurora

Invested

$381.36

Value

$270.18

PnL

+$64.51

Record

48%

537-588 (1125)

cat3xcat3xCTR

CyberHero

Invested

$3,841.46

Value

$95.72

PnL

$-2.8K

Record

10-182 (192)

minjiCTR

CyberHero

Invested

$1,022.4

Value

$48.94

PnL

-$973.46

Record

55%

24-20 (44)

errormarginCTR

CyberHero

Invested

$1,000

Value

$32.81

PnL

-$967.19

Record

16-185 (201)

0xheavy888CTR

CyberHero

Invested

$465

Value

$22.5

PnL

-$442.5

Record

54%

503-422 (925)

DamwonChampions2026CTR

CyberHero

Invested

$399.95

Value

$20.95

PnL

-$379.01

Record

56%

24-19 (43)

Up0nlyCTR

CyberHero

Invested

$679.99

Value

$17.47

PnL

-$640.94

Record

61%

28-18 (46)

Research grade

NeutralAurora at 99%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Aurora

17 of 33 top traders (52%)16 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Aurora wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.8%

98.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.19

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.