Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Team Falcons, while the market favors Vitality (51%). 12 of 24 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner

12 of 24 top Polymarket traders hold Team Falcons (50%) · Team Falcons at 50¢ · $143K held · ends Nov 11

Vitality51¢Team Falcons49¢Ends Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Team Falcons

Consensus Traders

Team Falcons 50%

5 arb excluded

Total Value

$143.2K

Combined PnL

$19.4K

Smart Money Entry

34.3¢ → 49.5¢

+44% since entry · 12 traders

Research grade

NeutralTeam Falcons at 50%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Team Falcons

12 of 24 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors Vitality 51%)5 arbitrage traders dimmed12 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Vitality51%

Team Falcons50%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Team Falcons12 traders

Total Value$67.6K

Total Shares139,899

Combined PnL+$19.6K

Vitality12 traders

Total Value$41.5K

Total Shares63,327

Combined PnL-$207.9

Team Falcons — 50%Vitality — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FA fantasy7788CTR	Team Falconsavg 34.7¢	$21.0K	$29.9K	+$8.9K	42% 103-141 (244)
0x99a093771ad58bcfc3023cd75566415fARB<$100	Vitalityavg 74.1¢	$25.7K	$24.6K	$-1.0K	64% 47-26 (73)
└ Team Falcons leg	Team Falconsavg 32¢	$8.3K	$12.8K	+$4.5K
└ Vitality leg	Vitalityavg 74.1¢	$17.4K	$11.8K	$-5.5K
CORGIICTR	Team Falconsavg 35.1¢	$14.2K	$20.0K	+$5.8K	0% 0-488 (488)
0X 0x06081d47a698bff1c673d77c50c11dd4c9da3120-1793914245258	Vitalityavg 64¢	$12.8K	$16.8K	+$4.0K	— 0-2 (2)
LL lllllllIlllCTR	Team Falconsavg 35¢	$7.5K	$9.1K	+$1.6K	1% 2-202 (204)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100	Vitalityavg 70.8¢	$6.9K	$5.9K	$-1.0K	56% 3827-2997 (6824)
└ Vitality leg	Vitalityavg 70.8¢	$5.7K	$4.1K	$-1.6K
└ Team Falcons leg	Team Falconsavg 32.9¢	$1.2K	$1.9K	+$623.06
FR frohp5	Vitalityavg 65.6¢	$6.9K	$5.3K	$-1.6K	60% 1222-803 (2025)
RE redvinny	Vitalityavg 76.8¢	$13.0K	$4.0K	$-1.8K	7% 10-128 (138)
forsenxd	Vitalityavg 65¢	$2.8K	$3.6K	+$804.8	48% 353-375 (728)
10 10scat	Vitalityavg 65.8¢	$4.2K	$3.2K	-$967.46	3% 14-513 (527)
SU SuperMegaMan	Vitalityavg 63¢	$2.4K	$3.2K	+$794.4	49% 603-624 (1227)
0X 0x2A97E8680FbED0fFCB4661cAc73B066dd3e12FFB-1771833636314CTR	Team Falconsavg 31.5¢	$1.6K	$2.6K	+$933.3	10% 13-122 (135)
0X 0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465	Vitalityavg 65¢	$2.7K	$2.1K	-$565.22	51% 3684-3525 (7209)
RA Rayaya	Vitalityavg 64¢	$2.6K	$2.0K	-$540	— 1-0 (1)
FK fkALG2FalconsTESCTR	Team Falconsavg 23.7¢	$946.54	$1.9K	+$993.46	46% 891-1056 (1947)
GT gt7238CTR	Team Falconsavg 33.3¢	$877.69	$1.3K	+$425.63	3% 15-447 (462)
PA pauleta23ARB<$100	Vitalityavg 68.8¢	$1.1K	$1.2K	+$270.67	27% 165-457 (622)
└ Team Falcons leg	Team Falconsavg 25.7¢	$435.36	$837.2	+$401.84
└ Vitality leg	Vitalityavg 68.8¢	$490.66	$360.2	-$131.17
31 319113331313111ARB<$100	Team Falconsavg 36.2¢	$1.2K	$1.2K	+$36.03	48% 54-59 (113)
└ Team Falcons leg	Team Falconsavg 36.2¢	$643.29	$755.24	+$111.95
└ Vitality leg	Vitalityavg 67.6¢	$508.32	$432.4	-$75.92
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighARB<$100	Vitalityavg 65.5¢	$945.63	$1.2K	+$229.87	53% 1703-1483 (3186)
└ Team Falcons leg	Team Falconsavg 24¢	$417.96	$687.78	+$269.82
└ Vitality leg	Vitalityavg 65.5¢	$527.67	$487.72	-$39.95
CA calm919CTR	Team Falconsavg 32¢	$696	$1.1K	+$358.88	0% 0-80 (80)
polaroid14CTR	Team Falconsavg 40¢	$759.37	$939.73	+$180.35	— 1-2 (3)
WE westing.v1CTR	Team Falconsavg 24¢	$346.08	$713.79	+$367.71	11% 8-63 (71)
BI BillBenter2026	Vitalityavg 70.9¢	$858.91	$623.73	-$235.18	19% 116-482 (598)
ZT ZTMZqClEsjMmwCDWXoG	Vitalityavg 65.1¢	$639.98	$496.47	-$143.51	18% 83-387 (470)
SE sentrio	Vitalityavg 65¢	$126.67	$163.7	+$37.03	35% 280-514 (794)

fantasy7788CTR

Team Falcons

Invested

$21,000

Value

$29.9K

PnL

+$8.9K

Record

42%

103-141 (244)

0x99a093771ad58bcfc3023cd75566415fARB<$100

Vitality

Invested

$25,658.31

Value

$24.6K

PnL

$-1.0K

Record

64%

47-26 (73)

Both legs:

Team Falcons$8,272.2832¢+$4.5K

Vitality$17,386.0374.1¢$-5.5K

CORGIICTR

Team Falcons

Invested

$14,220.93

Value

$20.0K

PnL

+$5.8K

Record

0-488 (488)

0x06081d47a698bff1c673d77c50c11dd4c9da3120-1793914245258

Vitality

Invested

$12,799.99

Value

$16.8K

PnL

+$4.0K

Record

—

0-2 (2)

lllllllIlllCTR

Team Falcons

Invested

$7,461.64

Value

$9.1K

PnL

+$1.6K

Record

2-202 (204)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100

Vitality

Invested

$6,930.35

Value

$5.9K

PnL

$-1.0K

Record

56%

3827-2997 (6824)

Both legs:

Vitality$5,697.6570.8¢$-1.6K

Team Falcons$1,232.732.9¢+$623.06

frohp5

Vitality

Invested

$6,948

Value

$5.3K

PnL

$-1.6K

Record

60%

1222-803 (2025)

redvinny

Vitality

Invested

$13,030.96

Value

$4.0K

PnL

$-1.8K

Record

10-128 (138)

forsenxd

Vitality

Invested

$2,753.26

Value

$3.6K

PnL

+$804.8

Record

48%

353-375 (728)

10scat

Vitality

Invested

$4,168.8

Value

$3.2K

PnL

-$967.46

Record

14-513 (527)

SuperMegaMan

Vitality

Invested

$2,383.21

Value

$3.2K

PnL

+$794.4

Record

49%

603-624 (1227)

0x2A97E8680FbED0fFCB4661cAc73B066dd3e12FFB-1771833636314CTR

Team Falcons

Invested

$1,640.24

Value

$2.6K

PnL

+$933.3

Record

10%

13-122 (135)

0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465

Vitality

Invested

$2,666.75

Value

$2.1K

PnL

-$565.22

Record

51%

3684-3525 (7209)

Rayaya

Vitality

Invested

$2,560

Value

$2.0K

PnL

-$540

Record

—

1-0 (1)

fkALG2FalconsTESCTR

Team Falcons

Invested

$946.54

Value

$1.9K

PnL

+$993.46

Record

46%

891-1056 (1947)

gt7238CTR

Team Falcons

Invested

$877.69

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$425.63

Record

15-447 (462)

pauleta23ARB<$100

Vitality

Invested

$1,111.56

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$270.67

Record

27%

165-457 (622)

Both legs:

Team Falcons$435.3625.7¢+$401.84

Vitality$490.6668.8¢-$131.17

319113331313111ARB<$100

Team Falcons

Invested

$1,151.61

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$36.03

Record

48%

54-59 (113)

Both legs:

Team Falcons$643.2936.2¢+$111.95

Vitality$508.3267.6¢-$75.92

keeptheblueflagflyinghighARB<$100

Vitality

Invested

$945.63

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$229.87

Record

53%

1703-1483 (3186)

Both legs:

Team Falcons$417.9624¢+$269.82

Vitality$527.6765.5¢-$39.95

calm919CTR

Team Falcons

Invested

$696

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$358.88

Record

0-80 (80)

polaroid14CTR

Team Falcons

Invested

$759.37

Value

$939.73

PnL

+$180.35

Record

—

1-2 (3)

westing.v1CTR

Team Falcons

Invested

$346.08

Value

$713.79

PnL

+$367.71

Record

11%

8-63 (71)

BillBenter2026

Vitality

Invested

$858.91

Value

$623.73

PnL

-$235.18

Record

19%

116-482 (598)

ZTMZqClEsjMmwCDWXoG

Vitality

Invested

$639.98

Value

$496.47

PnL

-$143.51

Record

18%

83-387 (470)

sentrio

Vitality

Invested

$126.67

Value

$163.7

PnL

+$37.03

Record

35%

280-514 (794)

Research grade

NeutralTeam Falcons at 50%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Team Falcons

12 of 24 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors Vitality 51%)5 arbitrage traders dimmed12 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Team Falcons wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance51.7%

49.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$93.24

Max Loss

-$100.00

193.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.