Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Prestige, while the market favors Sökerorg (100%). 7 of 11 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Counter-Strike: Sökerorg vs Prestige (BO3) - CCT Europe Closed Qualifier: Series Play-In

7 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Prestige (64%) · Prestige at 0.1¢ · $5K held · ends Nov 9

Sökerorg>99¢Prestige<1¢Ends Mon, Nov 9, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Prestige

Consensus Traders

Prestige 64%

Total Value

$5.0K

Combined PnL

$-1.3K

Smart Money Entry

30.5¢ → 0.1¢

-100% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

AvoidPrestige at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Prestige

7 of 11 top traders (64%)Underdog side (market favors Sökerorg 100%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Sökerorg100%

Prestige0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Sökerorg4 traders

Total Value$3.3K

Total Shares3,700

Combined PnL+$1.0K

Prestige7 traders

Total Value$1.7K

Total Shares12,132

Combined PnL$-2.3K

Sökerorg — 36%Prestige — 64%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
LI Liquidifier	Sökerorgavg 64.1¢	$2.2K	$3.1K	+$926.22	50% 1276-1262 (2538)
CR crmannetjeCTR	Prestigeavg 29.1¢	$3.2K	$1.5K	$-1.7K	43% 27-36 (63)
GL glennyorkshire	Sökerorgavg 49.2¢	$96.57	$130.39	+$39.22	47% 253-288 (541)
31 319113331313111CTR	Prestigeavg 40.1¢	$1.9K	$120.12	-$230.54	58% 517-377 (894)
OM omnibus-076daa<$100	Sökerorgavg 66.9¢	$65.49	$97.88	+$32.39	50% 24101-24191 (48292)
CI cigarettesCTR	Prestigeavg 38.5¢	$170.26	$66.13	-$104.13	50% 66229-66753 (132982)
LR lryyy<$100	Sökerorgavg 63¢	$15.4	$22	+$6.6	48% 40299-43258 (83557)
38 38791873984189CTR	Prestigeavg 46.7¢	$235.98	$17.59	-$210.04	48% 72042-77747 (149789)
LO lonmi2511CTR<$100	Prestigeavg 31¢	$5.42	$5.1	-$0.31	53% 1649-1489 (3138)
0X 0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465CTR<$100	Prestigeavg 43.9¢	$56.67	$0.06	-$56.61	53% 6772-5998 (12770)
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100	Prestigeavg 53.3¢	$3.96	$0	-$3.96	52% 49335-46295 (95630)

Liquidifier

Sökerorg

Invested

$2,169.69

Value

$3.1K

PnL

+$926.22

Record

50%

1276-1262 (2538)

crmannetjeCTR

Prestige

Invested

$3,161.66

Value

$1.5K

PnL

$-1.7K

Record

43%

27-36 (63)

glennyorkshire

Sökerorg

Invested

$96.57

Value

$130.39

PnL

+$39.22

Record

47%

253-288 (541)

319113331313111CTR

Prestige

Invested

$1,901.62

Value

$120.12

PnL

-$230.54

Record

58%

517-377 (894)

omnibus-076daa<$100

Sökerorg

Invested

$65.49

Value

$97.88

PnL

+$32.39

Record

50%

24101-24191 (48292)

cigarettesCTR

Prestige

Invested

$170.26

Value

$66.13

PnL

-$104.13

Record

50%

66229-66753 (132982)

lryyy<$100

Sökerorg

Invested

$15.4

Value

$22

PnL

+$6.6

Record

48%

40299-43258 (83557)

38791873984189CTR

Prestige

Invested

$235.98

Value

$17.59

PnL

-$210.04

Record

48%

72042-77747 (149789)

lonmi2511CTR<$100

Prestige

Invested

$5.42

Value

$5.1

PnL

-$0.31

Record

53%

1649-1489 (3138)

0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465CTR<$100

Prestige

Invested

$56.67

Value

$0.06

PnL

-$56.61

Record

53%

6772-5998 (12770)

FlaznorpCTR<$100

Prestige

Invested

$3.96

Value

PnL

-$3.96

Record

52%

49335-46295 (95630)

Research grade

AvoidPrestige at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Prestige

7 of 11 top traders (64%)Underdog side (market favors Sökerorg 100%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Prestige wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.1%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8974.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

9074.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.