Map Handicap: PRV (-1.5) vs 33 (+1.5)

6 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold 33 (67%) · 33 at 100¢ · $22K held · ends Nov 15

PARIVISION<1¢33>99¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

33 67%

Total Value

$22.4K

Combined PnL

$10.1K

Smart Money Entry

39.8¢ → 100¢

+151% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

Neutral33 at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 9 top traders (67%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

PARIVISION0%

33100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

336 traders

Total Value$18.1K

Total Shares18,113

Combined PnL+$10.9K

PARIVISION3 traders

Total Value$4.3K

Total Shares8,185

Combined PnL-$753.92

33 — 67%PARIVISION — 33%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+4 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 90%

Freshness

Fresh

7h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on 33. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 90% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharp33 100% · 1

Aligned

ctr33 75% · 4

Aligned

Top 100033 67% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
VI vibing123	33avg 37¢	$4.4K	$11.8K	+$7.4K	61% 1202-764 (1966)
0X 0xC9BFc7986767173b4f1c3FC9B2c6b255F	33avg 45.4¢	$2.0K	$4.5K	+$2.4K	55% 177-144 (321)
RA RayayaCTR	PARIVISIONavg 63¢	$4.4K	$3.7K	-$700	56% 19-15 (34)
fyrsken	33avg 45.9¢	$425.31	$925.02	+$499.71	49% 67-71 (138)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080	33avg 40¢	$320	$799.19	+$479.19	30% 486-1131 (1617)
KA KaczkaCTR	PARIVISIONavg 53¢	$573.58	$344.52	-$20.65	9% 21-208 (229)
ZZ Zzzz87CTR	PARIVISIONavg 59.2¢	$316.82	$283.55	-$33.27	58% 114-81 (195)
XT xtxpleasecallme<$100	33avg 43.6¢	$29.98	$62.21	+$32.22	38% 3808-6231 (10039)
PV pvc975<$100	33avg 99.9¢	$25.2	$25.22	+$0.01	98% 492-11 (503)

vibing123

Invested

$4,378.15

Value

$11.8K

PnL

+$7.4K

Record

61%

1202-764 (1966)

0xC9BFc7986767173b4f1c3FC9B2c6b255F

Invested

$2,030.68

Value

$4.5K

PnL

+$2.4K

Record

55%

177-144 (321)

RayayaCTR

PARIVISION

Invested

$4,410

Value

$3.7K

PnL

-$700

Record

56%

19-15 (34)

fyrsken

Invested

$425.31

Value

$925.02

PnL

+$499.71

Record

49%

67-71 (138)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080

Invested

$320

Value

$799.19

PnL

+$479.19

Record

30%

486-1131 (1617)

KaczkaCTR

PARIVISION

Invested

$573.58

Value

$344.52

PnL

-$20.65

Record

21-208 (229)

Zzzz87CTR

PARIVISION

Invested

$316.82

Value

$283.55

PnL

-$33.27

Record

58%

114-81 (195)

xtxpleasecallme<$100

Invested

$29.98

Value

$62.21

PnL

+$32.22

Record

38%

3808-6231 (10039)

pvc975<$100

Invested

$25.2

Value

$25.22

PnL

+$0.01

Record

98%

492-11 (503)

Research grade

Neutral33 at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 9 top traders (67%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+4 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 90%

Freshness

Fresh

7h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on 33. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 90% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharp33 100% · 1

Aligned

ctr33 75% · 4

Aligned

Top 100033 67% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that 33 wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.