Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 33 - Map 2 Winner

10 of 20 top Polymarket traders hold PARIVISION (50%) · PARIVISION at 100¢ · $49K held · ends Nov 15

PARIVISION>99¢33<1¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

PARIVISION

Consensus Traders

PARIVISION 50%

Total Value

$49.1K

Combined PnL

$-2.3K

Smart Money Entry

90.8¢ → 100¢

+10% since entry · 10 traders

Research grade

NeutralPARIVISION at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

PARIVISION

10 of 20 top traders (50%)10 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

PARIVISION100%

330%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

PARIVISION10 traders

Total Value$49.1K

Total Shares49,123

Combined PnL+$960.7

3310 traders

Total Value$8.01

Total Shares14,680

Combined PnL$-3.2K

PARIVISION — 50%33 — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+14 pts consensus

Breadth

11 traders

Top 2 hold 79%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

52% of non-arb traders are on PARIVISION. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 79% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpPARIVISION 100% · 2

Aligned

sniper33 100% · 1

Diverging

ctr33 77% · 13

Diverging

Top 1000PARIVISION 52% · 21

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
PV pvc975	PARIVISIONavg 99.9¢	$32.6K	$32.6K	+$0	98% 492-11 (503)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2	PARIVISIONavg 63.5¢	$7.7K	$6.4K	$-1.3K	56% 4162-3255 (7417)
RA Rayaya	PARIVISIONavg 75.1¢	$3.8K	$5.0K	+$1.2K	56% 19-15 (34)
latvian.demon	PARIVISIONavg 65.9¢	$1.6K	$2.5K	+$836.23	13% 71-467 (538)
LO looppau	PARIVISIONavg 99.9¢	$999	$999	+$0	99% 826-2 (828)
XT xtxpleasecallme	PARIVISIONavg 99.9¢	$1.0K	$978.49	-$4.98	38% 3808-6231 (10039)
poshposh	PARIVISIONavg 97.8¢	$308.41	$299.74	-$8.67	49% 1311-1390 (2701)
TO TommyLeePeeca	PARIVISIONavg 85.4¢	$6.5K	$241.98	+$181.71	23% 69-232 (301)
broskye<$100	PARIVISIONavg 99.5¢	$74.62	$74.93	+$0.3	44% 188-241 (429)
LR lryyy<$100	PARIVISIONavg 96¢	$42.24	$43.96	+$1.72	46% 972-1163 (2135)
KA KaczkaCTR<$100	33avg 1.3¢	$83	$3.23	-$79.77	9% 21-208 (229)
JA JabJabichCTR	33avg 28¢	$849.24	$1.52	-$847.73	35% 46-84 (130)
EZ EzmoneyfornowCTR	33avg 28.7¢	$578.62	$1.01	-$577.61	46% 26-30 (56)
GT gt7238CTR	33avg 19.2¢	$262.6	$0.68	-$261.92	9% 50-497 (547)
TO topdogbigboiCTR	33avg 34¢	$159.19	$0.47	-$158.72	39% 1558-2440 (3998)
SE sentrioCTR	33avg 33¢	$112.49	$0.34	-$112.15	41% 1175-1673 (2848)
NO NotJumpCTR	33avg 40.7¢	$591.41	$0.3	-$58.1	50% 1122-1124 (2246)
MR MrConsistencyCTR	33avg 18.8¢	$110.31	$0.29	-$110.02	37% 38-65 (103)
alpheclabs2CTR<$100	33avg 34¢	$52.02	$0.15	-$51.87	45% 366-448 (814)
AA aaaa298CTR	33avg 13.5¢	$5.6K	$0.01	-$961.29	1% 4-304 (308)

pvc975

PARIVISION

Invested

$32,596.94

Value

$32.6K

PnL

+$0

Record

98%

492-11 (503)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2

PARIVISION

Invested

$7,670.31

Value

$6.4K

PnL

$-1.3K

Record

56%

4162-3255 (7417)

Rayaya

PARIVISION

Invested

$3,774.07

Value

$5.0K

PnL

+$1.2K

Record

56%

19-15 (34)

latvian.demon

PARIVISION

Invested

$1,616.86

Value

$2.5K

PnL

+$836.23

Record

13%

71-467 (538)

looppau

PARIVISION

Invested

$999

Value

$999

PnL

+$0

Record

99%

826-2 (828)

xtxpleasecallme

PARIVISION

Invested

$1,005

Value

$978.49

PnL

-$4.98

Record

38%

3808-6231 (10039)

poshposh

PARIVISION

Invested

$308.41

Value

$299.74

PnL

-$8.67

Record

49%

1311-1390 (2701)

TommyLeePeeca

PARIVISION

Invested

$6,471.73

Value

$241.98

PnL

+$181.71

Record

23%

69-232 (301)

broskye<$100

PARIVISION

Invested

$74.62

Value

$74.93

PnL

+$0.3

Record

44%

188-241 (429)

lryyy<$100

PARIVISION

Invested

$42.24

Value

$43.96

PnL

+$1.72

Record

46%

972-1163 (2135)

KaczkaCTR<$100

Invested

$83

Value

$3.23

PnL

-$79.77

Record

21-208 (229)

JabJabichCTR

Invested

$849.24

Value

$1.52

PnL

-$847.73

Record

35%

46-84 (130)

EzmoneyfornowCTR

Invested

$578.62

Value

$1.01

PnL

-$577.61

Record

46%

26-30 (56)

gt7238CTR

Invested

$262.6

Value

$0.68

PnL

-$261.92

Record

50-497 (547)

topdogbigboiCTR

Invested

$159.19

Value

$0.47

PnL

-$158.72

Record

39%

1558-2440 (3998)

sentrioCTR

Invested

$112.49

Value

$0.34

PnL

-$112.15

Record

41%

1175-1673 (2848)

NotJumpCTR

Invested

$591.41

Value

$0.3

PnL

-$58.1

Record

50%

1122-1124 (2246)

MrConsistencyCTR

Invested

$110.31

Value

$0.29

PnL

-$110.02

Record

37%

38-65 (103)

alpheclabs2CTR<$100

Invested

$52.02

Value

$0.15

PnL

-$51.87

Record

45%

366-448 (814)

aaaa298CTR

Invested

$5,642.04

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$961.29

Record

4-304 (308)

Research grade

NeutralPARIVISION at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

PARIVISION

10 of 20 top traders (50%)10 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+14 pts consensus

Breadth

11 traders

Top 2 hold 79%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

52% of non-arb traders are on PARIVISION. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 79% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpPARIVISION 100% · 2

Aligned

sniper33 100% · 1

Diverging

ctr33 77% · 13

Diverging

Top 1000PARIVISION 52% · 21

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that PARIVISION wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.