Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold MOUZ NXT, while the market favors NAVI Junior (56%). 2 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Counter-Strike: NAVI Junior vs MOUZ NXT (BO3) - European Pro League Group C

2 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold MOUZ NXT (22%) · MOUZ NXT at 44¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 12

NAVI Junior56¢MOUZ NXT44¢Ends Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

MOUZ NXT

Consensus Traders

MOUZ NXT 22%

Total Value

$1.7K

Combined PnL

$22.34

Smart Money Entry

42.5¢ → 43.5¢

+2% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralMOUZ NXT at 44%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

MOUZ NXT

2 of 9 top traders (22%)Underdog side (market favors NAVI Junior 56%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

NAVI Junior56%

MOUZ NXT44%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

MOUZ NXT2 traders

Total Value$1.0K

Total Shares2,340

Combined PnL+$24.28

NAVI Junior7 traders

Total Value$706.9

Total Shares1,240

Combined PnL-$1.95

MOUZ NXT — 22%NAVI Junior — 78%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xC9BFc7986767173b4f1c3FC9B2c6b255FCTR	MOUZ NXTavg 42.5¢	$986.71	$1.0K	+$23.86	55% 138-115 (253)
JU JuiceFarm	NAVI Junioravg 57¢	$627	$621.5	-$5.5	63% 20-12 (32)
7E 0x7e59...7b8b<$100	NAVI Junioravg 60¢	$63.46	$60.82	-$2.65	—
F3 0xf317...9445<$100	NAVI Junioravg 59.6¢	$13.53	$12.83	-$0.7	—
C4 0xc4fe...601fCTR<$100	MOUZ NXTavg 41¢	$6.95	$7.37	+$0.42	—
38 38791873984189<$100	NAVI Junioravg 50¢	$4.6	$5	+$0.4	48% 1430-1573 (3003)
E5 0xe550...be3f<$100	NAVI Junioravg 56¢	$2.8	$2.82	+$0.02	—
VeryLucky888	NAVI Junioravg 55.2¢	$127.92	$2.57	+$6.46	52% 497-453 (950)
FL Flaznorp<$100	NAVI Junioravg 56¢	$1.35	$1.36	+$0.01	51% 1925-1866 (3791)

0xC9BFc7986767173b4f1c3FC9B2c6b255FCTR

MOUZ NXT

Invested

$986.71

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$23.86

Record

55%

138-115 (253)

JuiceFarm

NAVI Junior

Invested

$627

Value

$621.5

PnL

-$5.5

Record

63%

20-12 (32)

0x7e59...7b8b<$100

NAVI Junior

Invested

$63.46

Value

$60.82

PnL

-$2.65

Record

—

0xf317...9445<$100

NAVI Junior

Invested

$13.53

Value

$12.83

PnL

-$0.7

Record

—

0xc4fe...601fCTR<$100

MOUZ NXT

Invested

$6.95

Value

$7.37

PnL

+$0.42

Record

—

38791873984189<$100

NAVI Junior

Invested

$4.6

Value

PnL

+$0.4

Record

48%

1430-1573 (3003)

0xe550...be3f<$100

NAVI Junior

Invested

$2.8

Value

$2.82

PnL

+$0.02

Record

—

VeryLucky888

NAVI Junior

Invested

$127.92

Value

$2.57

PnL

+$6.46

Record

52%

497-453 (950)

Flaznorp<$100

NAVI Junior

Invested

$1.35

Value

$1.36

PnL

+$0.01

Record

51%

1925-1866 (3791)

Research grade

NeutralMOUZ NXT at 44%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

MOUZ NXT

2 of 9 top traders (22%)Underdog side (market favors NAVI Junior 56%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that MOUZ NXT wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance45.7%

43.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$118.65

Max Loss

-$100.00

218.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.