Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Beijing Playoffs

5 of 19 top Polymarket traders hold Natus Vincere (26%) · Natus Vincere at 65¢ · $311K held · ends Nov 8

Natus Vincere65¢BetBoom Team35¢Ends Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Natus Vincere

Consensus Traders

Natus Vincere 26%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$311.0K

Combined PnL

$-2.6K

Smart Money Entry

61¢ → 64.5¢

+6% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralNatus Vincere at 65%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Natus Vincere

5 of 19 top traders (26%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed14 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Natus Vincere65%

BetBoom Team36%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Natus Vincere5 traders

Total Value$215.9K

Total Shares354,173

Combined PnL-$317.41

BetBoom Team14 traders

Total Value$71.2K

Total Shares183,827

Combined PnL$-2.2K

Natus Vincere — 26%BetBoom Team — 74%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FA fantasy7788	Natus Vincereavg 60.9¢	$180.1K	$178.8K	$-1.3K	43% 102-138 (240)
LL lllllllIlll	Natus Vincereavg 61.8¢	$33.8K	$34.7K	+$938.99	54% 322-277 (599)
RO robloxgamblemaster-2008-10-18CTR	BetBoom Teamavg 39.5¢	$31.6K	$29.2K	$-2.4K	50% 7740-7873 (15613)
KateBollingerARB<$100	Natus Vincereavg 59.5¢	$25.2K	$23.0K	+$836.01	68% 1824-865 (2689)
└ Natus Vincere leg	Natus Vincereavg 59.5¢	$16.3K	$17.7K	+$1.4K
└ BetBoom Team leg	BetBoom Teamavg 39¢	$5.9K	$5.4K	-$528.56
CORGIICTR	BetBoom Teamavg 42.1¢	$20.8K	$20.2K	-$529.54	41% 418-597 (1015)
forsenxdCTR	BetBoom Teamavg 38.1¢	$8.2K	$8.8K	+$627.29	53% 1123-983 (2106)
0X 0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465CTR	BetBoom Teamavg 38¢	$2.6K	$2.5K	-$102.1	53% 6334-5615 (11949)
VeryLucky888CTR	BetBoom Teamavg 39.7¢	$3.7K	$2.4K	+$68.19	58% 47904-34520 (82424)
VI vibing123	Natus Vincereavg 58¢	$2.1K	$2.2K	+$36.9	52% 1674-1564 (3238)
LooksMaxing101CTR	BetBoom Teamavg 38¢	$1.9K	$2.0K	+$150	51% 888-849 (1737)
RA RayayaCTR	BetBoom Teamavg 41¢	$1.6K	$1.6K	-$0	61% 1227-797 (2024)
LO lossxCTR	BetBoom Teamavg 42.3¢	$1.5K	$1.5K	-$47.38	59% 307-211 (518)
CA Catch8877CTR	BetBoom Teamavg 38¢	$1.4K	$1.4K	+$17.98	53% 171-150 (321)
BI biying88888CTR	BetBoom Teamavg 40¢	$1.2K	$1.2K	-$14.96	66% 173-91 (264)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100	Natus Vincereavg 64¢	$451.02	$440.56	-$10.46	53% 14954-13478 (28432)
└ Natus Vincere leg	Natus Vincereavg 64¢	$261.02	$263.06	+$2.04
└ BetBoom Team leg	BetBoom Teamavg 38¢	$190	$177.5	-$12.5
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	BetBoom Teamavg 39.3¢	$535.17	$416.66	+$1.48	48% 63191-68207 (131398)
└ BetBoom Team leg	BetBoom Teamavg 39.3¢	$237.17	$232.16	-$3.02
└ Natus Vincere leg	Natus Vincereavg 60¢	$180	$184.5	+$4.5
FE ferrariChampions2026CTR	BetBoom Teamavg 38¢	$179.36	$172.28	-$7.08	42% 8192-11384 (19576)
AM ameisgoat11	Natus Vincereavg 63¢	$126	$129	+$3	52% 9022-8174 (17196)
CA calculate10CTR<$100	BetBoom Teamavg 38¢	$95	$88.75	-$6.25	54% 1335-1152 (2487)
WE westing.v1CTR<$100	BetBoom Teamavg 42.2¢	$72.2	$70.13	-$2.07	— 0-2 (2)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	BetBoom Teamavg 39.2¢	$19.24	$11.29	-$0.19	54% 10485-8797 (19282)
GL glennyorkshire<$100	Natus Vincereavg 61¢	$3.05	$3.18	+$0.13	45% 205-249 (454)

fantasy7788

Natus Vincere

Invested

$180,140.79

Value

$178.8K

PnL

$-1.3K

Record

43%

102-138 (240)

lllllllIlll

Natus Vincere

Invested

$33,774.42

Value

$34.7K

PnL

+$938.99

Record

54%

322-277 (599)

robloxgamblemaster-2008-10-18CTR

BetBoom Team

Invested

$31,619.57

Value

$29.2K

PnL

$-2.4K

Record

50%

7740-7873 (15613)

KateBollingerARB<$100

Natus Vincere

Invested

$25,218.08

Value

$23.0K

PnL

+$836.01

Record

68%

1824-865 (2689)

Both legs:

Natus Vincere$16,303.5959.5¢+$1.4K

BetBoom Team$5,889.6239¢-$528.56

CORGIICTR

BetBoom Team

Invested

$20,756.04

Value

$20.2K

PnL

-$529.54

Record

41%

418-597 (1015)

forsenxdCTR

BetBoom Team

Invested

$8,201.29

Value

$8.8K

PnL

+$627.29

Record

53%

1123-983 (2106)

0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465CTR

BetBoom Team

Invested

$2,586.58

Value

$2.5K

PnL

-$102.1

Record

53%

6334-5615 (11949)

VeryLucky888CTR

BetBoom Team

Invested

$3,722.7

Value

$2.4K

PnL

+$68.19

Record

58%

47904-34520 (82424)

vibing123

Natus Vincere

Invested

$2,140.36

Value

$2.2K

PnL

+$36.9

Record

52%

1674-1564 (3238)

LooksMaxing101CTR

BetBoom Team

Invested

$1,900

Value

$2.0K

PnL

+$150

Record

51%

888-849 (1737)

RayayaCTR

BetBoom Team

Invested

$1,640

Value

$1.6K

PnL

-$0

Record

61%

1227-797 (2024)

lossxCTR

BetBoom Team

Invested

$1,524.61

Value

$1.5K

PnL

-$47.38

Record

59%

307-211 (518)

Catch8877CTR

BetBoom Team

Invested

$1,366.66

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$17.98

Record

53%

171-150 (321)

biying88888CTR

BetBoom Team

Invested

$1,197.2

Value

$1.2K

PnL

-$14.96

Record

66%

173-91 (264)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100

Natus Vincere

Invested

$451.02

Value

$440.56

PnL

-$10.46

Record

53%

14954-13478 (28432)

Both legs:

Natus Vincere$261.0264¢+$2.04

BetBoom Team$19038¢-$12.5

38791873984189ARB<$100

BetBoom Team

Invested

$535.17

Value

$416.66

PnL

+$1.48

Record

48%

63191-68207 (131398)

Both legs:

BetBoom Team$237.1739.3¢-$3.02

Natus Vincere$18060¢+$4.5

ferrariChampions2026CTR

BetBoom Team

Invested

$179.36

Value

$172.28

PnL

-$7.08

Record

42%

8192-11384 (19576)

ameisgoat11

Natus Vincere

Invested

$126

Value

$129

PnL

+$3

Record

52%

9022-8174 (17196)

calculate10CTR<$100

BetBoom Team

Invested

$95

Value

$88.75

PnL

-$6.25

Record

54%

1335-1152 (2487)

westing.v1CTR<$100

BetBoom Team

Invested

$72.2

Value

$70.13

PnL

-$2.07

Record

—

0-2 (2)

Pan9XCTR<$100

BetBoom Team

Invested

$19.24

Value

$11.29

PnL

-$0.19

Record

54%

10485-8797 (19282)

glennyorkshire<$100

Natus Vincere

Invested

$3.05

Value

$3.18

PnL

+$0.13

Record

45%

205-249 (454)

Research grade

NeutralNatus Vincere at 65%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Natus Vincere

5 of 19 top traders (26%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed14 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Natus Vincere wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance66.6%

64.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$50.08

Max Loss

-$100.00

150.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.