Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner

8 of 15 top Polymarket traders hold Team Falcons (53%) · Team Falcons at 53¢ · $134K held · ends Nov 14

FURIA48¢Team Falcons52¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Team Falcons

Consensus Traders

Team Falcons 53%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$133.7K

Combined PnL

-$151.1

Smart Money Entry

53.7¢ → 52.5¢

-2% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralTeam Falcons at 53%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Team Falcons

8 of 15 top traders (53%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

FURIA48%

Team Falcons53%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Team Falcons8 traders

Total Value$68.9K

Total Shares131,271

Combined PnL$-1.5K

FURIA7 traders

Total Value$64.4K

Total Shares135,597

Combined PnL+$1.4K

Team Falcons — 53%FURIA — 47%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FA fantasy7788	Team Falconsavg 54¢	$50.0K	$48.6K	$-1.4K	43% 114-152 (266)
TH Thunderous-Authoritarian-SnarlCTR	FURIAavg 46¢	$40.3K	$41.6K	+$1.3K	21% 9-34 (43)
RO robloxgamblemaster-2008-10-18CTR	FURIAavg 47¢	$16.1K	$16.3K	+$171.27	51% 748-715 (1463)
LO lonmi2511	Team Falconsavg 53¢	$12.4K	$12.3K	-$117.22	60% 707-480 (1187)
FE fengdubisheng117CTR	FURIAavg 48.6¢	$3.7K	$3.6K	-$82.85	15% 10-56 (66)
rafaleaoo	Team Falconsavg 53¢	$2.6K	$2.6K	-$25	3% 23-648 (671)
JA JabJabich	Team Falconsavg 53¢	$2.1K	$2.1K	-$20	29% 26-63 (89)
0X 0xC9BFc7986767173b4f1c3FC9B2c6b255FCTR	FURIAavg 47.4¢	$1.6K	$1.6K	-$12.64	55% 162-133 (295)
BananaFarmer	Team Falconsavg 53¢	$1.3K	$1.3K	-$11.2	46% 12-14 (26)
VeryLucky888	Team Falconsavg 50.7¢	$1.3K	$979.89	+$36.68	53% 1318-1151 (2469)
12monkeys	Team Falconsavg 53¢	$954	$945	-$9	42% 18-25 (43)
VladooosCTR	FURIAavg 48¢	$887.35	$878.11	-$9.24	65% 46-25 (71)
ZZ Zzzz87CTR	FURIAavg 47¢	$441.33	$446.03	+$4.69	62% 87-54 (141)
WE weeeskiesARB<$100	Team Falconsavg 53¢	$209.94	$208.05	-$1.89	44% 11-14 (25)
└ Team Falcons leg	Team Falconsavg 53¢	$140.98	$139.65	-$1.33
└ FURIA leg	FURIAavg 47.9¢	$68.96	$68.4	-$0.56
GH ghorrockARB<$100	FURIAavg 47.2¢	$154.02	$154.38	+$0.35	52% 1696-1538 (3234)
└ FURIA leg	FURIAavg 47.2¢	$101.66	$100.06	-$1.59
└ Team Falcons leg	Team Falconsavg 51.6¢	$52.37	$54.31	+$1.95
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Team Falconsavg 50.6¢	$91.65	$95.72	+$4.07	48% 3192-3494 (6686)
└ Team Falcons leg	Team Falconsavg 50.6¢	$66.81	$70.61	+$3.8
└ FURIA leg	FURIAavg 46¢	$24.84	$25.11	+$0.27
NA NagastaBagambi<$100	Team Falconsavg 52.6¢	$16.44	$16.42	-$0.02	5% 1-19 (20)
SU suntoriCTR<$100	FURIAavg 49¢	$9.52	$9.13	-$0.39	46% 2546-3015 (5561)

fantasy7788

Team Falcons

Invested

$50,000

Value

$48.6K

PnL

$-1.4K

Record

43%

114-152 (266)

Thunderous-Authoritarian-SnarlCTR

FURIA

Invested

$40,256.41

Value

$41.6K

PnL

+$1.3K

Record

21%

9-34 (43)

robloxgamblemaster-2008-10-18CTR

FURIA

Invested

$16,099.07

Value

$16.3K

PnL

+$171.27

Record

51%

748-715 (1463)

lonmi2511

Team Falcons

Invested

$12,425.32

Value

$12.3K

PnL

-$117.22

Record

60%

707-480 (1187)

fengdubisheng117CTR

FURIA

Invested

$3,731.99

Value

$3.6K

PnL

-$82.85

Record

15%

10-56 (66)

rafaleaoo

Team Falcons

Invested

$2,650

Value

$2.6K

PnL

-$25

Record

23-648 (671)

JabJabich

Team Falcons

Invested

$2,120

Value

$2.1K

PnL

-$20

Record

29%

26-63 (89)

0xC9BFc7986767173b4f1c3FC9B2c6b255FCTR

FURIA

Invested

$1,582.67

Value

$1.6K

PnL

-$12.64

Record

55%

162-133 (295)

BananaFarmer

Team Falcons

Invested

$1,325

Value

$1.3K

PnL

-$11.2

Record

46%

12-14 (26)

VeryLucky888

Team Falcons

Invested

$1,317.71

Value

$979.89

PnL

+$36.68

Record

53%

1318-1151 (2469)

12monkeys

Team Falcons

Invested

$954

Value

$945

PnL

-$9

Record

42%

18-25 (43)

VladooosCTR

FURIA

Invested

$887.35

Value

$878.11

PnL

-$9.24

Record

65%

46-25 (71)

Zzzz87CTR

FURIA

Invested

$441.33

Value

$446.03

PnL

+$4.69

Record

62%

87-54 (141)

weeeskiesARB<$100

Team Falcons

Invested

$209.94

Value

$208.05

PnL

-$1.89

Record

44%

11-14 (25)

Both legs:

Team Falcons$140.9853¢-$1.33

FURIA$68.9647.9¢-$0.56

ghorrockARB<$100

FURIA

Invested

$154.02

Value

$154.38

PnL

+$0.35

Record

52%

1696-1538 (3234)

Both legs:

FURIA$101.6647.2¢-$1.59

Team Falcons$52.3751.6¢+$1.95

38791873984189ARB<$100

Team Falcons

Invested

$91.65

Value

$95.72

PnL

+$4.07

Record

48%

3192-3494 (6686)

Both legs:

Team Falcons$66.8150.6¢+$3.8

FURIA$24.8446¢+$0.27

NagastaBagambi<$100

Team Falcons

Invested

$16.44

Value

$16.42

PnL

-$0.02

Record

1-19 (20)

suntoriCTR<$100

FURIA

Invested

$9.52

Value

$9.13

PnL

-$0.39

Record

46%

2546-3015 (5561)

Research grade

NeutralTeam Falcons at 53%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Team Falcons

8 of 15 top traders (53%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Team Falcons wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance54.7%

52.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$82.67

Max Loss

-$100.00

182.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.