Haiti vs. United States: O/U 2.5

6 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Over (50%) · Over at 65¢ · $9K held · ends Nov 14

Over65¢Under35¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 50%

Total Value

$8.6K

Combined PnL

$204.55

Smart Money Entry

62.7¢ → 65¢

+4% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 65%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

6 of 12 top traders (50%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over65%

Under35%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over6 traders

Total Value$7.8K

Total Shares12,135

Combined PnL+$223.52

Under6 traders

Total Value$729.07

Total Shares2,083

Combined PnL-$18.96

Over — 50%Under — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

1 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

4h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

14% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUnder 83% · 6

Diverging

Top 1000Under 86% · 7

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465	Overavg 62¢	$3.5K	$3.6K	+$140.63	51% 3872-3656 (7528)
MU Multicoloured-Serf	Overavg 63.5¢	$2.7K	$2.8K	+$42.22	49% 635-674 (1309)
GO GoalLineGhost	Overavg 62.6¢	$808	$832.7	+$24.7	53% 2094-1845 (3939)
LI LightParadoxCTR	Underavg 36¢	$281.98	$274.15	-$7.83	37% 964-1664 (2628)
NM NM-P	Overavg 62.9¢	$257.58	$264.31	+$6.73	59% 3767-2593 (6360)
GC GC-P	Overavg 62.9¢	$257.58	$264.31	+$6.73	37% 357-610 (967)
LI LimousinCTR	Underavg 36¢	$185.26	$180.11	-$5.15	36% 937-1647 (2584)
MA MadridTimeCTR	Underavg 36¢	$128.23	$124.67	-$3.56	37% 972-1637 (2609)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Underavg 36¢	$87.27	$84.85	-$2.42	36% 953-1669 (2622)
VeryLucky888<$100	Overavg 62¢	$62	$64.5	+$2.5	53% 1366-1192 (2558)
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100	Underavg 35¢	$53.2	$53.2	+$0	49% 3844-4007 (7851)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Underavg 35¢	$12.1	$12.1	+$0	42% 1002-1373 (2375)

0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465

Over

Invested

$3,487.53

Value

$3.6K

PnL

+$140.63

Record

51%

3872-3656 (7528)

Multicoloured-Serf

Over

Invested

$2,731.11

Value

$2.8K

PnL

+$42.22

Record

49%

635-674 (1309)

GoalLineGhost

Over

Invested

$808

Value

$832.7

PnL

+$24.7

Record

53%

2094-1845 (3939)

LightParadoxCTR

Under

Invested

$281.98

Value

$274.15

PnL

-$7.83

Record

37%

964-1664 (2628)

NM-P

Over

Invested

$257.58

Value

$264.31

PnL

+$6.73

Record

59%

3767-2593 (6360)

GC-P

Over

Invested

$257.58

Value

$264.31

PnL

+$6.73

Record

37%

357-610 (967)

LimousinCTR

Under

Invested

$185.26

Value

$180.11

PnL

-$5.15

Record

36%

937-1647 (2584)

MadridTimeCTR

Under

Invested

$128.23

Value

$124.67

PnL

-$3.56

Record

37%

972-1637 (2609)

VenusianCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$87.27

Value

$84.85

PnL

-$2.42

Record

36%

953-1669 (2622)

VeryLucky888<$100

Over

Invested

$62

Value

$64.5

PnL

+$2.5

Record

53%

1366-1192 (2558)

FlaznorpCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$53.2

Value

$53.2

PnL

+$0

Record

49%

3844-4007 (7851)

sentrioCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$12.1

Value

$12.1

PnL

+$0

Record

42%

1002-1373 (2375)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 65%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Over

6 of 12 top traders (50%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

1 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

4h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

14% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUnder 83% · 6

Diverging

Top 1000Under 86% · 7

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance67.1%

65.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$48.98

Max Loss

-$100.00

149.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.