Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (100%). 2 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Guandong GZ-Power FC vs. Nanjing City: O/U 3.5
2 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Under (29%) · Under at 0.1¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 7
⚠️
Avoid
Under
7
Under 29%
$2.4K
$143.33
51.5¢ → 0.1¢
-100% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
AvoidUnder at 0%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 7 top traders (29%)Underdog side (market favors Over 100%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 RN1 | Overavg 49¢ | $761.15 | $997.06 | +$235.91 | 53% 62226-54444 (116670) |
DA dashattackerCTR | Underavg 52.2¢ | $1.1K | $734.86 | -$376.99 | 73% 3094-1167 (4261) |
FL Flaznorp | Overavg 48.8¢ | $304.55 | $585.99 | +$281.44 | 51% 26991-25572 (52563) |
WA WagerWizard<$100 | Overavg 93.3¢ | $56.12 | $55.92 | -$0.2 | 84% 15044-2924 (17968) |
GO GoalLineGhost<$100 | Overavg 48¢ | $18.72 | $25.55 | +$6.83 | 50% 28862-28672 (57534) |
OM omnibus-076daaCTR<$100 | Underavg 19.4¢ | $8.82 | $6.83 | -$2 | 50% 21519-21799 (43318) |
LR lryyy<$100 | Overavg 87.5¢ | $7.3 | $5.63 | -$1.67 | 47% 9510-10646 (20156) |
RN1Invested
$761.15
Value
$997.06
PnL
+$235.91
Record
53%
62226-54444 (116670)
Invested
$1,111.85
Value
$734.86
PnL
-$376.99
Record
73%
3094-1167 (4261)
Invested
$304.55
Value
$585.99
PnL
+$281.44
Record
51%
26991-25572 (52563)
Invested
$56.12
Value
$55.92
PnL
-$0.2
Record
84%
15044-2924 (17968)
Invested
$18.72
Value
$25.55
PnL
+$6.83
Record
50%
28862-28672 (57534)
Invested
$8.82
Value
$6.83
PnL
-$2
Record
50%
21519-21799 (43318)
Invested
$7.3
Value
$5.63
PnL
-$1.67
Record
47%
9510-10646 (20156)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.