Texas State vs. Oregon State

14 of 23 top Polymarket traders hold Texas State (61%) · Texas State at 70¢ · $111K held · ended Nov 8

Texas State70¢Oregon State30¢Ended Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Texas State

Consensus Traders

Texas State 61%

6 arb excluded

Total Value

$111.3K

Combined PnL

$9.1K

Smart Money Entry

52¢ → 69.5¢

+34% since entry · 14 traders

Research grade

NeutralTexas State at 70%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Texas State

14 of 23 top traders (61%)6 arbitrage traders dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Texas State70%

Oregon State31%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Oregon State9 traders

Total Value$28.1K

Total Shares54,019

Combined PnL+$66.83

Texas State14 traders

Total Value$54.3K

Total Shares85,230

Combined PnL+$9.0K

Oregon State — 39%Texas State — 61%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
MU Multicoloured-SerfCTR	Oregon Stateavg 63.9¢	$13.2K	$14.5K	+$1.3K	48% 405-446 (851)
FE ferrariChampions2026	Texas Stateavg 37.1¢	$8.4K	$12.6K	+$4.3K	42% 8192-11384 (19576)
TA takeormakeARB<$100	Texas Stateavg 57.3¢	$11.2K	$11.1K	-$118.12	52% 5134-4713 (9847)
└ Texas State leg	Texas Stateavg 57.3¢	$6.2K	$6.9K	+$769.52
└ Oregon State leg	Oregon Stateavg 43.1¢	$5.0K	$4.2K	-$887.64
0X 0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465	Texas Stateavg 56.2¢	$10.2K	$10.6K	+$412.3	53% 6334-5615 (11949)
65 6512395314597884CTR	Oregon Stateavg 44¢	$12.1K	$10.6K	-$571.82	51% 5014-4884 (9898)
TA TAIWANNUMBERONE	Texas Stateavg 59.8¢	$8.3K	$9.4K	+$1.1K	54% 1393-1200 (2593)
RN1ARB<$100	Texas Stateavg 56¢	$8.9K	$9.2K	+$311.16	53% 63014-55227 (118241)
└ Texas State leg	Texas Stateavg 56¢	$4.6K	$4.9K	+$210.46
└ Oregon State leg	Oregon Stateavg 40.5¢	$4.3K	$4.4K	+$100.7
PR primm	Texas Stateavg 53.9¢	$7.2K	$9.0K	+$1.8K	47% 1317-1506 (2823)
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Oregon Stateavg 50.4¢	$6.5K	$4.4K	-$814.88	48% 63191-68207 (131398)
└ Texas State leg	Texas Stateavg 55.4¢	$2.1K	$2.6K	+$530.2
└ Oregon State leg	Oregon Stateavg 50.4¢	$2.9K	$1.8K	$-1.3K
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100	Texas Stateavg 53.3¢	$3.7K	$3.7K	+$19.07	53% 14954-13478 (28432)
└ Texas State leg	Texas Stateavg 53.3¢	$1.9K	$2.3K	+$423.89
└ Oregon State leg	Oregon Stateavg 44.3¢	$1.8K	$1.4K	-$404.82
CUTJALENHURTS	Texas Stateavg 54.9¢	$3.2K	$3.6K	+$408.79	52% 6414-6029 (12443)
EN ENDBOSSLLC	Texas Stateavg 56¢	$2.5K	$3.1K	+$520.88	44% 330-424 (754)
VI vibing123	Texas Stateavg 56.6¢	$1.9K	$2.2K	+$362.07	52% 1674-1564 (3238)
betdge	Texas Stateavg 56.7¢	$1.5K	$1.4K	-$31.71	49% 1247-1285 (2532)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872	Texas Stateavg 59.7¢	$895	$877.5	-$17.5	56% 8738-6795 (15533)
CM cm2897CTR	Oregon Stateavg 46¢	$1.2K	$869.7	-$361.26	51% 2230-2185 (4415)
OJ ojgCTR	Oregon Stateavg 34.9¢	$742.8	$757.09	+$14.3	43% 838-1096 (1934)
BI BillBenter2026	Texas Stateavg 55.8¢	$484.26	$585.9	+$101.64	57% 19479-14427 (33906)
JU justaluckydudeARB<$100	Texas Stateavg 50.6¢	$407.9	$450.48	+$42.58	53% 12378-10927 (23305)
└ Texas State leg	Texas Stateavg 50.6¢	$219.14	$283.5	+$64.36
└ Oregon State leg	Oregon Stateavg 39¢	$188.76	$166.98	-$21.78
RollAwayTheDew	Texas Stateavg 62¢	$399.9	$435.38	+$35.48	54% 542-460 (1002)
AV averagejoetradersCTR	Oregon Stateavg 44.5¢	$460.3	$358.92	-$101.38	57% 676-519 (1195)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR	Oregon Stateavg 43¢	$344.96	$348.97	+$4.01	46% 1795-2102 (3897)
OX oxe78sh4w98CTR	Oregon Stateavg 44.7¢	$446.98	$346.6	-$100.38	53% 626-550 (1176)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846	Texas Stateavg 55¢	$281.83	$345.81	+$63.98	59% 33715-23828 (57543)
0X 0xfFFF6537CTR	Oregon Stateavg 41¢	$410	$325	-$85	49% 1142-1178 (2320)

Multicoloured-SerfCTR

Oregon State

Invested

$13,193.67

Value

$14.5K

PnL

+$1.3K

Record

48%

405-446 (851)

ferrariChampions2026

Texas State

Invested

$8,363.82

Value

$12.6K

PnL

+$4.3K

Record

42%

8192-11384 (19576)

takeormakeARB<$100

Texas State

Invested

$11,197.54

Value

$11.1K

PnL

-$118.12

Record

52%

5134-4713 (9847)

Both legs:

Texas State$6,157.7657.3¢+$769.52

Oregon State$5,039.7843.1¢-$887.64

0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465

Texas State

Invested

$10,187

Value

$10.6K

PnL

+$412.3

Record

53%

6334-5615 (11949)

6512395314597884CTR

Oregon State

Invested

$12,059.6

Value

$10.6K

PnL

-$571.82

Record

51%

5014-4884 (9898)

TAIWANNUMBERONE

Texas State

Invested

$8,299.78

Value

$9.4K

PnL

+$1.1K

Record

54%

1393-1200 (2593)

RN1ARB<$100

Texas State

Invested

$8,898.01

Value

$9.2K

PnL

+$311.16

Record

53%

63014-55227 (118241)

Both legs:

Texas State$4,643.0956¢+$210.46

Oregon State$4,254.9240.5¢+$100.7

primm

Texas State

Invested

$7,205.63

Value

$9.0K

PnL

+$1.8K

Record

47%

1317-1506 (2823)

38791873984189ARB<$100

Oregon State

Invested

$6,502.58

Value

$4.4K

PnL

-$814.88

Record

48%

63191-68207 (131398)

Both legs:

Texas State$2,091.2855.4¢+$530.2

Oregon State$2,915.7650.4¢$-1.3K

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100

Texas State

Invested

$3,695.48

Value

$3.7K

PnL

+$19.07

Record

53%

14954-13478 (28432)

Both legs:

Texas State$1,861.1853.3¢+$423.89

Oregon State$1,834.344.3¢-$404.82

CUTJALENHURTS

Texas State

Invested

$3,179.85

Value

$3.6K

PnL

+$408.79

Record

52%

6414-6029 (12443)

ENDBOSSLLC

Texas State

Invested

$2,536.45

Value

$3.1K

PnL

+$520.88

Record

44%

330-424 (754)

vibing123

Texas State

Invested

$1,870.65

Value

$2.2K

PnL

+$362.07

Record

52%

1674-1564 (3238)

betdge

Texas State

Invested

$1,451.96

Value

$1.4K

PnL

-$31.71

Record

49%

1247-1285 (2532)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872

Texas State

Invested

$895

Value

$877.5

PnL

-$17.5

Record

56%

8738-6795 (15533)

cm2897CTR

Oregon State

Invested

$1,230.96

Value

$869.7

PnL

-$361.26

Record

51%

2230-2185 (4415)

ojgCTR

Oregon State

Invested

$742.8

Value

$757.09

PnL

+$14.3

Record

43%

838-1096 (1934)

BillBenter2026

Texas State

Invested

$484.26

Value

$585.9

PnL

+$101.64

Record

57%

19479-14427 (33906)

justaluckydudeARB<$100

Texas State

Invested

$407.9

Value

$450.48

PnL

+$42.58

Record

53%

12378-10927 (23305)

Both legs:

Texas State$219.1450.6¢+$64.36

Oregon State$188.7639¢-$21.78

RollAwayTheDew

Texas State

Invested

$399.9

Value

$435.38

PnL

+$35.48

Record

54%

542-460 (1002)

averagejoetradersCTR

Oregon State

Invested

$460.3

Value

$358.92

PnL

-$101.38

Record

57%

676-519 (1195)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR

Oregon State

Invested

$344.96

Value

$348.97

PnL

+$4.01

Record

46%

1795-2102 (3897)

oxe78sh4w98CTR

Oregon State

Invested

$446.98

Value

$346.6

PnL

-$100.38

Record

53%

626-550 (1176)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846

Texas State

Invested

$281.83

Value

$345.81

PnL

+$63.98

Record

59%

33715-23828 (57543)

0xfFFF6537CTR

Oregon State

Invested

$410

Value

$325

PnL

-$85

Record

49%

1142-1178 (2320)

Research grade

NeutralTexas State at 70%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Texas State

14 of 23 top traders (61%)6 arbitrage traders dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Texas State wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance71.5%

69.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$39.78

Max Loss

-$100.00

139.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.