Spread: Boise State (-16.5)

9 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold Boise State (69%) · Boise State at 63¢ · $1K held · ended Nov 14

Boise State63¢Oregon State37¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Boise State

Consensus Traders

Boise State 69%

Total Value

$1.2K

Combined PnL

$16.35

Smart Money Entry

49.2¢ → 62.5¢

+27% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

NeutralBoise State at 63%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Boise State

9 of 13 top traders (69%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Boise State63%

Oregon State38%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Boise State9 traders

Total Value$799.6

Total Shares1,519

Combined PnL+$52.8

Oregon State4 traders

Total Value$370.39

Total Shares772

Combined PnL-$36.46

Boise State — 69%Oregon State — 31%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 81%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

75% of non-arb traders are on Boise State. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 81% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrBoise State 80% · 5

Aligned

Top 1000Boise State 75% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
LI LightParadox	Boise Stateavg 48¢	$369.24	$400.01	+$30.77	37% 1085-1829 (2914)
38 38791873984189CTR	Oregon Stateavg 51.9¢	$409.41	$349.89	-$30.57	47% 3383-3741 (7124)
FO Forecastication2	Boise Stateavg 48¢	$185.76	$201.24	+$15.48	45% 277-332 (609)
PA Pan9X<$100	Boise Stateavg 51.7¢	$74.95	$72.8	+$0.75	49% 1694-1746 (3440)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872<$100	Boise Stateavg 60.8¢	$36.6	$37.62	+$1.01	55% 1703-1404 (3107)
0X 0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382<$100	Boise Stateavg 49¢	$28.42	$30.16	+$1.74	47% 339-375 (714)
MU Multicoloured-Serf<$100	Boise Stateavg 51¢	$25.91	$26.42	+$0.51	49% 650-689 (1339)
HO HomeRunHazard<$100	Boise Stateavg 52.1¢	$12.03	$15.58	+$3.55	56% 3718-2886 (6604)
dips.CTR<$100	Oregon Stateavg 66¢	$15.84	$11.52	-$4.32	47% 1041-1174 (2215)
PR primm<$100	Boise Stateavg 56¢	$11.2	$10.4	-$0.8	60% 1016-678 (1694)
RN1<$100	Boise Stateavg 54¢	$5.58	$5.37	-$0.21	55% 5525-4565 (10090)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Oregon Stateavg 49¢	$4.94	$4.84	-$0.1	53% 1938-1717 (3655)
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eCTR<$100	Oregon Stateavg 65¢	$5.61	$4.14	-$1.47	58% 3692-2676 (6368)

LightParadox

Boise State

Invested

$369.24

Value

$400.01

PnL

+$30.77

Record

37%

1085-1829 (2914)

38791873984189CTR

Oregon State

Invested

$409.41

Value

$349.89

PnL

-$30.57

Record

47%

3383-3741 (7124)

Forecastication2

Boise State

Invested

$185.76

Value

$201.24

PnL

+$15.48

Record

45%

277-332 (609)

Pan9X<$100

Boise State

Invested

$74.95

Value

$72.8

PnL

+$0.75

Record

49%

1694-1746 (3440)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872<$100

Boise State

Invested

$36.6

Value

$37.62

PnL

+$1.01

Record

55%

1703-1404 (3107)

0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382<$100

Boise State

Invested

$28.42

Value

$30.16

PnL

+$1.74

Record

47%

339-375 (714)

Multicoloured-Serf<$100

Boise State

Invested

$25.91

Value

$26.42

PnL

+$0.51

Record

49%

650-689 (1339)

HomeRunHazard<$100

Boise State

Invested

$12.03

Value

$15.58

PnL

+$3.55

Record

56%

3718-2886 (6604)

dips.CTR<$100

Oregon State

Invested

$15.84

Value

$11.52

PnL

-$4.32

Record

47%

1041-1174 (2215)

primm<$100

Boise State

Invested

$11.2

Value

$10.4

PnL

-$0.8

Record

60%

1016-678 (1694)

RN1<$100

Boise State

Invested

$5.58

Value

$5.37

PnL

-$0.21

Record

55%

5525-4565 (10090)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Oregon State

Invested

$4.94

Value

$4.84

PnL

-$0.1

Record

53%

1938-1717 (3655)

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eCTR<$100

Oregon State

Invested

$5.61

Value

$4.14

PnL

-$1.47

Record

58%

3692-2676 (6368)

Research grade

NeutralBoise State at 63%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Boise State

9 of 13 top traders (69%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 81%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

75% of non-arb traders are on Boise State. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 81% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrBoise State 80% · 5

Aligned

Top 1000Boise State 75% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Boise State wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance64.7%

62.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$54.66

Max Loss

-$100.00

154.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.