Boise State vs. Colorado State

21 of 30 top Polymarket traders hold Boise State (70%) · Boise State at 100¢ · $281K held · ended Nov 7

Boise State>99¢Colorado State<1¢Ended Sat, Nov 7, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Boise State

Consensus Traders

Boise State 70%

Total Value

$281.3K

Combined PnL

$-4.7K

Smart Money Entry

96.8¢ → 99.6¢

+3% since entry · 21 traders

Research grade

NeutralBoise State at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Boise State

21 of 30 top traders (70%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Boise State100%

Colorado State0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Boise State21 traders

Total Value$280.6K

Total Shares281,050

Combined PnL+$547.25

Colorado State9 traders

Total Value$717.21

Total Shares109,061

Combined PnL$-5.2K

Boise State — 70%Colorado State — 30%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

1 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

8h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

17% of non-arb traders are on Boise State. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleBoise State 50% · 2

Aligned

sharpColorado State 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrColorado State 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Colorado State 83% · 6

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465	Boise Stateavg 98.1¢	$228.3K	$226.8K	$-1.6K	53% 6334-5615 (11949)
HO HomeRunHazard	Boise Stateavg 87.2¢	$12.3K	$13.1K	+$805.84	54% 18557-15589 (34146)
0xheavy888	Boise Stateavg 87¢	$8.7K	$10.0K	+$1.3K	56% 8260-6557 (14817)
38 38791873984189	Boise Stateavg 95.4¢	$9.7K	$8.7K	-$561.3	48% 63191-68207 (131398)
HA Hashbrown	Boise Stateavg 97¢	$7.5K	$7.7K	+$190.51	90% 690-75 (765)
RN1	Boise Stateavg 97.2¢	$4.5K	$4.5K	+$9.98	53% 63014-55227 (118241)
NM NM-P	Boise Stateavg 87¢	$1.4K	$1.5K	+$73	64% 10183-5729 (15912)
FE ferrariChampions2026	Boise Stateavg 87¢	$1.4K	$1.4K	+$47.75	42% 8192-11384 (19576)
PL pltrkr111	Boise Stateavg 86¢	$993.3	$1.1K	+$154.77	55% 790-658 (1448)
0X 0xfFFF6537	Boise Stateavg 98.2¢	$1.1K	$1.0K	-$68.43	49% 1142-1178 (2320)
GC GC-P	Boise Stateavg 87¢	$930	$998	+$68	64% 10184-5783 (15967)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2	Boise Stateavg 98.7¢	$1.0K	$994.27	-$6.12	53% 14954-13478 (28432)
wowfarm	Boise Stateavg 87¢	$609	$696.15	+$87.15	71% 4957-1990 (6947)
TA takeormake	Boise Stateavg 95.2¢	$669.52	$691.34	+$21.82	52% 5134-4713 (9847)
PA Pan9X	Boise Stateavg 98.2¢	$459.97	$413.88	-$19.87	54% 10485-8797 (19282)
CUTJALENHURTSCTR	Colorado Stateavg 3.3¢	$2.8K	$336.94	$-2.4K	52% 6414-6029 (12443)
OJ ojg	Boise Stateavg 99¢	$306.99	$308.76	+$1.77	43% 838-1096 (1934)
HI hi774cCTR	Colorado Stateavg 12¢	$220.8	$230	+$0	46% 5316-6151 (11467)
SE sentrio	Boise Stateavg 87.1¢	$183.29	$209.28	+$25.99	50% 26504-26107 (52611)
65 6512395314597884	Boise Stateavg 95¢	$185.39	$194.37	+$8.98	51% 5014-4884 (9898)
XT xtxpleasecallme	Boise Stateavg 87¢	$131.66	$150.72	+$19.07	33% 20011-40834 (60845)
DR Dreamwire<$100	Boise Stateavg 99.6¢	$99.61	$99.6	-$0.01	79% 3530-933 (4463)
nigiri99CTR	Colorado Stateavg 13.1¢	$2.4K	$74.77	$-2.4K	46% 8770-10464 (19234)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	Colorado Stateavg 12¢	$33.72	$35.13	+$1.41	51% 38228-37447 (75675)
IM imjustkenisgheyCTR	Colorado Stateavg 12.1¢	$429.09	$23.15	-$405.95	49% 451-468 (919)

0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465

Boise State

Invested

$228,323.38

Value

$226.8K

PnL

$-1.6K

Record

53%

6334-5615 (11949)

HomeRunHazard

Boise State

Invested

$12,287.1

Value

$13.1K

PnL

+$805.84

Record

54%

18557-15589 (34146)

0xheavy888

Boise State

Invested

$8,700

Value

$10.0K

PnL

+$1.3K

Record

56%

8260-6557 (14817)

38791873984189

Boise State

Invested

$9,737.87

Value

$8.7K

PnL

-$561.3

Record

48%

63191-68207 (131398)

Hashbrown

Boise State

Invested

$7,545.98

Value

$7.7K

PnL

+$190.51

Record

90%

690-75 (765)

RN1

Boise State

Invested

$4,504.18

Value

$4.5K

PnL

+$9.98

Record

53%

63014-55227 (118241)

NM-P

Boise State

Invested

$1,425

Value

$1.5K

PnL

+$73

Record

64%

10183-5729 (15912)

ferrariChampions2026

Boise State

Invested

$1,382.32

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$47.75

Record

42%

8192-11384 (19576)

pltrkr111

Boise State

Invested

$993.3

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$154.77

Record

55%

790-658 (1448)

0xfFFF6537

Boise State

Invested

$1,076.22

Value

$1.0K

PnL

-$68.43

Record

49%

1142-1178 (2320)

GC-P

Boise State

Invested

$930

Value

$998

PnL

+$68

Record

64%

10184-5783 (15967)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2

Boise State

Invested

$1,000.39

Value

$994.27

PnL

-$6.12

Record

53%

14954-13478 (28432)

wowfarm

Boise State

Invested

$609

Value

$696.15

PnL

+$87.15

Record

71%

4957-1990 (6947)

takeormake

Boise State

Invested

$669.52

Value

$691.34

PnL

+$21.82

Record

52%

5134-4713 (9847)

Pan9X

Boise State

Invested

$459.97

Value

$413.88

PnL

-$19.87

Record

54%

10485-8797 (19282)

CUTJALENHURTSCTR

Colorado State

Invested

$2,779.72

Value

$336.94

PnL

$-2.4K

Record

52%

6414-6029 (12443)

ojg

Boise State

Invested

$306.99

Value

$308.76

PnL

+$1.77

Record

43%

838-1096 (1934)

hi774cCTR

Colorado State

Invested

$220.8

Value

$230

PnL

+$0

Record

46%

5316-6151 (11467)

sentrio

Boise State

Invested

$183.29

Value

$209.28

PnL

+$25.99

Record

50%

26504-26107 (52611)

6512395314597884

Boise State

Invested

$185.39

Value

$194.37

PnL

+$8.98

Record

51%

5014-4884 (9898)

xtxpleasecallme

Boise State

Invested

$131.66

Value

$150.72

PnL

+$19.07

Record

33%

20011-40834 (60845)

Dreamwire<$100

Boise State

Invested

$99.61

Value

$99.6

PnL

-$0.01

Record

79%

3530-933 (4463)

nigiri99CTR

Colorado State

Invested

$2,445.88

Value

$74.77

PnL

$-2.4K

Record

46%

8770-10464 (19234)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

Colorado State

Invested

$33.72

Value

$35.13

PnL

+$1.41

Record

51%

38228-37447 (75675)

imjustkenisgheyCTR

Colorado State

Invested

$429.09

Value

$23.15

PnL

-$405.95

Record

49%

451-468 (919)

Research grade

NeutralBoise State at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).

Smart Money Signal

Boise State

21 of 30 top traders (70%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

1 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

8h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

17% of non-arb traders are on Boise State. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleBoise State 50% · 2

Aligned

sharpColorado State 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrColorado State 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Colorado State 83% · 6

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Boise State wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.6¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.