Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yale Bulldogs, while the market favors UCF Knights (71%). 4 of 10 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Yale Bulldogs vs. UCF Knights

4 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Yale Bulldogs (40%) · Yale Bulldogs at 30¢ · $6K held · ended Nov 7

Yale Bulldogs30¢UCF Knights70¢Ended Sat, Nov 7, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yale Bulldogs

Consensus Traders

Yale Bulldogs 40%

5 arb excluded

Total Value

$6.5K

Combined PnL

$981.44

Smart Money Entry

18.5¢ → 29.5¢

+59% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

AvoidYale Bulldogs at 30%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yale Bulldogs

4 of 10 top traders (40%)Underdog side (market favors UCF Knights 71%)5 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yale Bulldogs30%

UCF Knights71%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yale Bulldogs4 traders

Total Value$1.8K

Total Shares4,613

Combined PnL+$924.36

UCF Knights6 traders

Total Value$850.7

Total Shares1,186

Combined PnL+$57.08

Yale Bulldogs — 40%UCF Knights — 60%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Yale Bulldogsavg 31.2¢	$1.6K	$1.6K	+$24.34	51% 26597-25202 (51799)
└ Yale Bulldogs leg	Yale Bulldogsavg 31.2¢	$866.24	$861.78	-$4.46
└ UCF Knights leg	UCF Knightsavg 66.2¢	$691.81	$720.6	+$28.79
RN1ARB<$100	UCF Knightsavg 59.3¢	$915.29	$1.1K	+$152.84	53% 61880-54166 (116046)
└ UCF Knights leg	UCF Knightsavg 59.3¢	$640.7	$739.91	+$99.21
└ Yale Bulldogs leg	Yale Bulldogsavg 26.4¢	$274.59	$328.22	+$53.63
HO HomeRunHazardCTR	Yale Bulldogsavg 18¢	$469.83	$1.0K	+$535.09	54% 18312-15411 (33723)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR	Yale Bulldogsavg 19¢	$359.78	$729.03	+$369.25	46% 1684-1976 (3660)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872ARB<$100	Yale Bulldogsavg 49¢	$652.94	$563.4	-$89.54	56% 8430-6558 (14988)
└ UCF Knights leg	UCF Knightsavg 63.1¢	$326.27	$356.73	+$30.46
└ Yale Bulldogs leg	Yale Bulldogsavg 49¢	$326.67	$206.67	-$120
38 38791873984189	UCF Knightsavg 64.5¢	$457.55	$503.76	+$46.21	48% 62002-66846 (128848)
0X 0x746295855BE6F49fE2DA2AcCD69eA34b3Cf23Ac3-1762436472554ARB<$100	UCF Knightsavg 52.2¢	$422.31	$456.12	+$33.81	54% 3493-3030 (6523)
└ UCF Knights leg	UCF Knightsavg 52.2¢	$307.35	$347.06	+$39.71
└ Yale Bulldogs leg	Yale Bulldogsavg 43.2¢	$114.96	$109.06	-$5.9
TA takeormake	UCF Knightsavg 57¢	$228.15	$242.32	+$14.17	52% 4962-4513 (9475)
CM cm2897ARB<$100	Yale Bulldogsavg 32.3¢	$174.52	$182.45	+$7.93	51% 2192-2133 (4325)
└ Yale Bulldogs leg	Yale Bulldogsavg 32.3¢	$110.65	$108.05	-$2.61
└ UCF Knights leg	UCF Knightsavg 58.8¢	$63.87	$74.41	+$10.54
0X 0x1ba747eaed3e0e798922523dbed29693bcf767a1<$100	UCF Knightsavg 42.2¢	$50.25	$48.21	-$2.03	46% 925-1098 (2023)
DI dips.CTR<$100	Yale Bulldogsavg 21.8¢	$20.3	$35.81	+$15.5	47% 10837-12404 (23241)
RollAwayTheDew<$100	UCF Knightsavg 88.6¢	$33.9	$23.52	-$10.38	54% 531-448 (979)
PA Pan9X<$100	UCF Knightsavg 73.2¢	$39.39	$21.84	+$6.87	54% 10159-8530 (18689)
CI cigarettes<$100	UCF Knightsavg 55¢	$8.8	$11.04	+$2.24	53% 24089-21161 (45250)
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eCTR<$100	Yale Bulldogsavg 21.8¢	$3.63	$8.15	+$4.52	59% 3021-2113 (5134)

FlaznorpARB<$100

Yale Bulldogs

Invested

$1,558.05

Value

$1.6K

PnL

+$24.34

Record

51%

26597-25202 (51799)

Both legs:

Yale Bulldogs$866.2431.2¢-$4.46

UCF Knights$691.8166.2¢+$28.79

RN1ARB<$100

UCF Knights

Invested

$915.29

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$152.84

Record

53%

61880-54166 (116046)

Both legs:

UCF Knights$640.759.3¢+$99.21

Yale Bulldogs$274.5926.4¢+$53.63

HomeRunHazardCTR

Yale Bulldogs

Invested

$469.83

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$535.09

Record

54%

18312-15411 (33723)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR

Yale Bulldogs

Invested

$359.78

Value

$729.03

PnL

+$369.25

Record

46%

1684-1976 (3660)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872ARB<$100

Yale Bulldogs

Invested

$652.94

Value

$563.4

PnL

-$89.54

Record

56%

8430-6558 (14988)

Both legs:

UCF Knights$326.2763.1¢+$30.46

Yale Bulldogs$326.6749¢-$120

38791873984189

UCF Knights

Invested

$457.55

Value

$503.76

PnL

+$46.21

Record

48%

62002-66846 (128848)

0x746295855BE6F49fE2DA2AcCD69eA34b3Cf23Ac3-1762436472554ARB<$100

UCF Knights

Invested

$422.31

Value

$456.12

PnL

+$33.81

Record

54%

3493-3030 (6523)

Both legs:

UCF Knights$307.3552.2¢+$39.71

Yale Bulldogs$114.9643.2¢-$5.9

takeormake

UCF Knights

Invested

$228.15

Value

$242.32

PnL

+$14.17

Record

52%

4962-4513 (9475)

cm2897ARB<$100

Yale Bulldogs

Invested

$174.52

Value

$182.45

PnL

+$7.93

Record

51%

2192-2133 (4325)

Both legs:

Yale Bulldogs$110.6532.3¢-$2.61

UCF Knights$63.8758.8¢+$10.54

0x1ba747eaed3e0e798922523dbed29693bcf767a1<$100

UCF Knights

Invested

$50.25

Value

$48.21

PnL

-$2.03

Record

46%

925-1098 (2023)

dips.CTR<$100

Yale Bulldogs

Invested

$20.3

Value

$35.81

PnL

+$15.5

Record

47%

10837-12404 (23241)

RollAwayTheDew<$100

UCF Knights

Invested

$33.9

Value

$23.52

PnL

-$10.38

Record

54%

531-448 (979)

Pan9X<$100

UCF Knights

Invested

$39.39

Value

$21.84

PnL

+$6.87

Record

54%

10159-8530 (18689)

cigarettes<$100

UCF Knights

Invested

$8.8

Value

$11.04

PnL

+$2.24

Record

53%

24089-21161 (45250)

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eCTR<$100

Yale Bulldogs

Invested

$3.63

Value

$8.15

PnL

+$4.52

Record

59%

3021-2113 (5134)

Research grade

AvoidYale Bulldogs at 30%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Yale Bulldogs

4 of 10 top traders (40%)Underdog side (market favors UCF Knights 71%)5 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yale Bulldogs wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance31.6%

29.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$216.86

Max Loss

-$100.00

316.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.