Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Wyoming Cowboys, while the market favors North Carolina Tar Heels (84%). 7 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Wyoming Cowboys vs. North Carolina Tar Heels

7 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Wyoming Cowboys (78%) · Wyoming Cowboys at 16¢ · $469 held · ended Nov 11

Wyoming Cowboys16¢North Carolina Tar Heels84¢Ended Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Wyoming Cowboys

Consensus Traders

Wyoming Cowboys 78%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$468.71

Combined PnL

$64.85

Smart Money Entry

13¢ → 16¢

+23% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

AvoidWyoming Cowboys at 16%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Wyoming Cowboys

7 of 9 top traders (78%)Underdog side (market favors North Carolina Tar Heels 84%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Wyoming Cowboys16%

North Carolina Tar Heels84%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Wyoming Cowboys7 traders

Total Value$343.29

Total Shares2,050

Combined PnL+$64.88

North Carolina Tar Heels2 traders

Total Value$20.63

Total Shares23

Combined PnL-$0.03

Wyoming Cowboys — 78%North Carolina Tar Heels — 22%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazardCTR	Wyoming Cowboysavg 10.3¢	$69.94	$146.24	+$76.3	57% 3074-2312 (5386)
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	North Carolina Tar Heelsavg 89.7¢	$111.47	$104.8	-$6.67	48% 939-1010 (1949)
└ North Carolina Tar Heels leg	North Carolina Tar Heelsavg 89.7¢	$70.88	$62.02	-$8.86
└ Wyoming Cowboys leg	Wyoming Cowboysavg 20.4¢	$40.59	$42.79	+$2.19
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100	Wyoming Cowboysavg 10¢	$73.69	$77.37	+$3.68	50% 1433-1435 (2868)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR<$100	Wyoming Cowboysavg 18.8¢	$53.78	$61.37	+$7.59	56% 488-383 (871)
RN1CTR<$100	Wyoming Cowboysavg 20.5¢	$53.86	$31.48	-$22.38	58% 3771-2731 (6502)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Wyoming Cowboysavg 20.4¢	$23.92	$23.11	-$0.81	49% 440-464 (904)
0xheavy888<$100	North Carolina Tar Heelsavg 90¢	$16.2	$16.2	+$0	56% 119-94 (213)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	North Carolina Tar Heelsavg 89¢	$4.45	$4.43	-$0.03	26% 177-517 (694)
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eCTR<$100	Wyoming Cowboysavg 20¢	$2	$2.2	+$0.2	62% 2334-1431 (3765)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Wyoming Cowboysavg 8¢	$1.21	$1.51	+$0.3	26% 234-663 (897)

HomeRunHazardCTR

Wyoming Cowboys

Invested

$69.94

Value

$146.24

PnL

+$76.3

Record

57%

3074-2312 (5386)

38791873984189ARB<$100

North Carolina Tar Heels

Invested

$111.47

Value

$104.8

PnL

-$6.67

Record

48%

939-1010 (1949)

Both legs:

North Carolina Tar Heels$70.8889.7¢-$8.86

Wyoming Cowboys$40.5920.4¢+$2.19

FlaznorpCTR<$100

Wyoming Cowboys

Invested

$73.69

Value

$77.37

PnL

+$3.68

Record

50%

1433-1435 (2868)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR<$100

Wyoming Cowboys

Invested

$53.78

Value

$61.37

PnL

+$7.59

Record

56%

488-383 (871)

RN1CTR<$100

Wyoming Cowboys

Invested

$53.86

Value

$31.48

PnL

-$22.38

Record

58%

3771-2731 (6502)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Wyoming Cowboys

Invested

$23.92

Value

$23.11

PnL

-$0.81

Record

49%

440-464 (904)

0xheavy888<$100

North Carolina Tar Heels

Invested

$16.2

Value

$16.2

PnL

+$0

Record

56%

119-94 (213)

ameisgoat11<$100

North Carolina Tar Heels

Invested

$4.45

Value

$4.43

PnL

-$0.03

Record

26%

177-517 (694)

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eCTR<$100

Wyoming Cowboys

Invested

Value

$2.2

PnL

+$0.2

Record

62%

2334-1431 (3765)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Wyoming Cowboys

Invested

$1.21

Value

$1.51

PnL

+$0.3

Record

26%

234-663 (897)

Research grade

AvoidWyoming Cowboys at 16%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.

Smart Money Signal

Wyoming Cowboys

7 of 9 top traders (78%)Underdog side (market favors North Carolina Tar Heels 84%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Wyoming Cowboys wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance17.7%

16.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$464.80

Max Loss

-$100.00

564.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.