Milwaukee Panthers vs. Indiana State Sycamores

6 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold Milwaukee Panthers (46%) · Milwaukee Panthers at 61¢ · $3K held · ended Nov 12

Milwaukee Panthers61¢Indiana State Sycamores39¢Ended Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Milwaukee Panthers

Consensus Traders

Milwaukee Panthers 46%

Total Value

$3.5K

Combined PnL

-$26.26

Smart Money Entry

34.1¢ → 60.5¢

+77% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

AvoidMilwaukee Panthers at 61%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Milwaukee Panthers

6 of 13 top traders (46%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Milwaukee Panthers61%

Indiana State Sycamores40%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Milwaukee Panthers6 traders

Total Value$2.7K

Total Shares7,816

Combined PnL-$7.71

Indiana State Sycamores7 traders

Total Value$802.85

Total Shares1,216

Combined PnL-$18.55

Milwaukee Panthers — 46%Indiana State Sycamores — 54%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 77%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

42% of non-arb traders are on Milwaukee Panthers. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 77% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Milwaukee Panthers) and the top 1000 (11 on Indiana State Sycamores) disagree here.

ctrMilwaukee Panthers 100% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedMilwaukee Panthers 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Indiana State Sycamores 64% · 11

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HI hi774c	Milwaukee Panthersavg 34¢	$1.6K	$1.6K	+$0	14% 77-472 (549)
HO HomeRunHazard	Milwaukee Panthersavg 34¢	$490.94	$490.94	+$0	57% 3229-2433 (5662)
0xheavy888	Milwaukee Panthersavg 34.7¢	$346.32	$339.66	-$6.66	55% 205-165 (370)
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eCTR	Indiana State Sycamoresavg 69¢	$345	$330	-$15	60% 2613-1718 (4331)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR	Indiana State Sycamoresavg 69¢	$342.61	$327.71	-$14.9	55% 719-584 (1303)
SN SnakeBall	Milwaukee Panthersavg 34¢	$197.08	$197.08	+$0	47% 299-342 (641)
VeryLucky888<$100	Milwaukee Panthersavg 34¢	$68	$68	+$0	52% 497-452 (949)
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	Indiana State Sycamoresavg 64¢	$64	$66	+$2	48% 1427-1570 (2997)
TH thirdt1meCTR<$100	Indiana State Sycamoresavg 47¢	$23.5	$33	+$9.5	43% 125-165 (290)
SU suitcase6628CTR<$100	Indiana State Sycamoresavg 69¢	$21.42	$20.49	-$0.93	64% 279-159 (438)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Indiana State Sycamoresavg 64¢	$12.8	$13.2	+$0.4	49% 692-733 (1425)
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100	Indiana State Sycamoresavg 64¢	$12.08	$12.46	+$0.38	51% 1925-1864 (3789)
OJ ojg<$100	Milwaukee Panthersavg 55¢	$2.75	$1.7	-$1.05	43% 140-183 (323)

hi774c

Milwaukee Panthers

Invested

$1,560

Value

$1.6K

PnL

+$0

Record

14%

77-472 (549)

HomeRunHazard

Milwaukee Panthers

Invested

$490.94

Value

$490.94

PnL

+$0

Record

57%

3229-2433 (5662)

0xheavy888

Milwaukee Panthers

Invested

$346.32

Value

$339.66

PnL

-$6.66

Record

55%

205-165 (370)

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eCTR

Indiana State Sycamores

Invested

$345

Value

$330

PnL

-$15

Record

60%

2613-1718 (4331)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR

Indiana State Sycamores

Invested

$342.61

Value

$327.71

PnL

-$14.9

Record

55%

719-584 (1303)

SnakeBall

Milwaukee Panthers

Invested

$197.08

Value

$197.08

PnL

+$0

Record

47%

299-342 (641)

VeryLucky888<$100

Milwaukee Panthers

Invested

$68

Value

$68

PnL

+$0

Record

52%

497-452 (949)

38791873984189CTR<$100

Indiana State Sycamores

Invested

$64

Value

$66

PnL

+$2

Record

48%

1427-1570 (2997)

thirdt1meCTR<$100

Indiana State Sycamores

Invested

$23.5

Value

$33

PnL

+$9.5

Record

43%

125-165 (290)

suitcase6628CTR<$100

Indiana State Sycamores

Invested

$21.42

Value

$20.49

PnL

-$0.93

Record

64%

279-159 (438)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Indiana State Sycamores

Invested

$12.8

Value

$13.2

PnL

+$0.4

Record

49%

692-733 (1425)

FlaznorpCTR<$100

Indiana State Sycamores

Invested

$12.08

Value

$12.46

PnL

+$0.38

Record

51%

1925-1864 (3789)

ojg<$100

Milwaukee Panthers

Invested

$2.75

Value

$1.7

PnL

-$1.05

Record

43%

140-183 (323)

Research grade

AvoidMilwaukee Panthers at 61%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Milwaukee Panthers

6 of 13 top traders (46%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 77%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

42% of non-arb traders are on Milwaukee Panthers. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 77% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Milwaukee Panthers) and the top 1000 (11 on Indiana State Sycamores) disagree here.

ctrMilwaukee Panthers 100% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedMilwaukee Panthers 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Indiana State Sycamores 64% · 11

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Milwaukee Panthers wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance62.7%

60.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$59.53

Max Loss

-$100.00

159.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.