Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Portland Pilots, while the market favors East Texas A&M Lions (98%). 7 of 17 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

East Texas A&M Lions vs. Portland Pilots

7 of 17 top Polymarket traders hold Portland Pilots (41%) · Portland Pilots at 2.0¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 14

East Texas A&M Lions98¢Portland Pilots2¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Portland Pilots

Consensus Traders

Portland Pilots 41%

Total Value

$2.5K

Combined PnL

$13.31

Smart Money Entry

36.8¢ → 2¢

-95% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

AvoidPortland Pilots at 2%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Portland Pilots

7 of 17 top traders (41%)Underdog side (market favors East Texas A&M Lions 98%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

East Texas A&M Lions98%

Portland Pilots2%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

East Texas A&M Lions10 traders

Total Value$1.9K

Total Shares1,921

Combined PnL+$784.85

Portland Pilots7 traders

Total Value$572.55

Total Shares3,173

Combined PnL-$771.53

East Texas A&M Lions — 59%Portland Pilots — 41%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+3 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 93%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

41% of non-arb traders are on Portland Pilots. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 93% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrEast Texas A&M Lions 56% · 9

Diverging

Hand-pickedEast Texas A&M Lions 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000East Texas A&M Lions 59% · 17

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RN1	East Texas A&M Lionsavg 58¢	$928.78	$1.4K	+$432.34	56% 5169-4141 (9310)
NO NotJumpCTR	Portland Pilotsavg 48.5¢	$534.6	$525.59	-$6.76	53% 760-685 (1445)
TH thirdt1me	East Texas A&M Lionsavg 50.5¢	$414.2	$268.57	+$270.5	49% 256-271 (527)
SU suntori<$100	East Texas A&M Lionsavg 91¢	$62.73	$67.56	+$4.83	45% 2420-2899 (5319)
SE sentrio<$100	East Texas A&M Lionsavg 78.2¢	$46.84	$52.2	+$5.36	43% 949-1283 (2232)
US User7429<$100	East Texas A&M Lionsavg 73.9¢	$36.54	$48.43	+$11.89	39% 309-474 (783)
AV averagejoetraders<$100	East Texas A&M Lionsavg 30.8¢	$9.11	$28.99	+$19.87	56% 752-601 (1353)
BO BoomLaLa<$100	East Texas A&M Lionsavg 65¢	$31.96	$27.32	-$4.64	33% 147-294 (441)
RU RUDY2323CTR	Portland Pilotsavg 47.6¢	$500	$21	-$479	42% 13-18 (31)
PA Pan9X<$100	East Texas A&M Lionsavg 56.6¢	$88.16	$20.26	+$42.52	49% 1449-1486 (2935)
SU suitcase6628<$100	East Texas A&M Lionsavg 92¢	$18.41	$19.61	+$1.2	65% 587-321 (908)
38 38791873984189CTR	Portland Pilotsavg 16.4¢	$359.76	$8.83	+$85.04	48% 3052-3353 (6405)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR	Portland Pilotsavg 27.4¢	$293.57	$8.39	-$101.46	55% 1469-1221 (2690)
SM smithagentCTR<$100	Portland Pilotsavg 2¢	$59.67	$4.91	+$4.82	44% 614-768 (1382)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR	Portland Pilotsavg 33¢	$274.56	$3.74	-$270.82	38% 509-839 (1348)
FL Flaznorp<$100	East Texas A&M Lionsavg 25¢	$0.33	$1.31	+$0.97	49% 3640-3753 (7393)
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eCTR<$100	Portland Pilotsavg 69¢	$3.45	$0.1	-$3.35	58% 3466-2465 (5931)

RN1

East Texas A&M Lions

Invested

$928.78

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$432.34

Record

56%

5169-4141 (9310)

NotJumpCTR

Portland Pilots

Invested

$534.6

Value

$525.59

PnL

-$6.76

Record

53%

760-685 (1445)

thirdt1me

East Texas A&M Lions

Invested

$414.2

Value

$268.57

PnL

+$270.5

Record

49%

256-271 (527)

suntori<$100

East Texas A&M Lions

Invested

$62.73

Value

$67.56

PnL

+$4.83

Record

45%

2420-2899 (5319)

sentrio<$100

East Texas A&M Lions

Invested

$46.84

Value

$52.2

PnL

+$5.36

Record

43%

949-1283 (2232)

User7429<$100

East Texas A&M Lions

Invested

$36.54

Value

$48.43

PnL

+$11.89

Record

39%

309-474 (783)

averagejoetraders<$100

East Texas A&M Lions

Invested

$9.11

Value

$28.99

PnL

+$19.87

Record

56%

752-601 (1353)

BoomLaLa<$100

East Texas A&M Lions

Invested

$31.96

Value

$27.32

PnL

-$4.64

Record

33%

147-294 (441)

RUDY2323CTR

Portland Pilots

Invested

$500

Value

$21

PnL

-$479

Record

42%

13-18 (31)

Pan9X<$100

East Texas A&M Lions

Invested

$88.16

Value

$20.26

PnL

+$42.52

Record

49%

1449-1486 (2935)

suitcase6628<$100

East Texas A&M Lions

Invested

$18.41

Value

$19.61

PnL

+$1.2

Record

65%

587-321 (908)

38791873984189CTR

Portland Pilots

Invested

$359.76

Value

$8.83

PnL

+$85.04

Record

48%

3052-3353 (6405)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR

Portland Pilots

Invested

$293.57

Value

$8.39

PnL

-$101.46

Record

55%

1469-1221 (2690)

smithagentCTR<$100

Portland Pilots

Invested

$59.67

Value

$4.91

PnL

+$4.82

Record

44%

614-768 (1382)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR

Portland Pilots

Invested

$274.56

Value

$3.74

PnL

-$270.82

Record

38%

509-839 (1348)

Flaznorp<$100

East Texas A&M Lions

Invested

$0.33

Value

$1.31

PnL

+$0.97

Record

49%

3640-3753 (7393)

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eCTR<$100

Portland Pilots

Invested

$3.45

Value

$0.1

PnL

-$3.35

Record

58%

3466-2465 (5931)

Research grade

AvoidPortland Pilots at 2%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Portland Pilots

7 of 17 top traders (41%)Underdog side (market favors East Texas A&M Lions 98%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+3 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 93%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

41% of non-arb traders are on Portland Pilots. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 93% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrEast Texas A&M Lions 56% · 9

Diverging

Hand-pickedEast Texas A&M Lions 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000East Texas A&M Lions 59% · 17

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Portland Pilots wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance3.1%

2.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$3079.14

Max Loss

-$100.00

3179.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.