Tennessee Tech Golden Eagles vs. Indiana Hoosiers

9 of 15 top Polymarket traders hold Indiana Hoosiers (60%) · Indiana Hoosiers at 96¢ · $4K held · ended Nov 12

Tennessee Tech Golden Eagles4¢Indiana Hoosiers96¢Ended Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Indiana Hoosiers

Consensus Traders

Indiana Hoosiers 60%

Total Value

$4.2K

Combined PnL

Smart Money Entry

96.8¢ → 96.5¢

+0% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

AvoidIndiana Hoosiers at 96%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Indiana Hoosiers

9 of 15 top traders (60%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Tennessee Tech Golden Eagles4%

Indiana Hoosiers96%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Indiana Hoosiers9 traders

Total Value$3.7K

Total Shares3,772

Combined PnL+$4.17

Tennessee Tech Golden Eagles6 traders

Total Value$546.64

Total Shares3,307

Combined PnL+$2.83

Indiana Hoosiers — 60%Tennessee Tech Golden Eagles — 40%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

-13 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 86%

Freshness

Fresh

8h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on Indiana Hoosiers. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 86% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Tennessee Tech Golden Eagles) and the top 1000 (9 on Indiana Hoosiers) disagree here.

ctrIndiana Hoosiers 50% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedTennessee Tech Golden Eagles 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Indiana Hoosiers 67% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
SM smithagent	Indiana Hoosiersavg 96¢	$981.25	$933.15	+$1.82	43% 400-536 (936)
nigiri99	Indiana Hoosiersavg 98¢	$1.3K	$823.48	-$3.09	52% 388-362 (750)
dips.	Indiana Hoosiersavg 96¢	$819.85	$818.08	-$1.77	46% 593-709 (1302)
SN SnakeBall	Indiana Hoosiersavg 97.7¢	$699.68	$698.9	-$0.78	47% 564-628 (1192)
NO NotJumpCTR	Tennessee Tech Golden Eaglesavg 50¢	$525	$489.25	+$0.09	54% 529-444 (973)
0X 0x7e1f9c90800E42806e242ABC5fcf26B571c79C27-1775842903107	Indiana Hoosiersavg 96¢	$230.4	$229.56	-$0.84	7% 30-398 (428)
38 38791873984189	Indiana Hoosiersavg 96.5¢	$239.46	$98.96	+$4.16	48% 2366-2611 (4977)
FL Flaznorp<$100	Indiana Hoosiersavg 97¢	$43.65	$44.01	+$0.36	51% 2763-2694 (5457)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Tennessee Tech Golden Eaglesavg 2¢	$25.34	$24.07	-$1.27	35% 657-1232 (1889)
PA Pan9X<$100	Indiana Hoosiersavg 97¢	$78.26	$23.38	+$4.3	49% 1100-1151 (2251)
XT xtxpleasecallme<$100	Indiana Hoosiersavg 97.8¢	$20.09	$20.09	+$0	40% 3363-5001 (8364)
RN1CTR<$100	Tennessee Tech Golden Eaglesavg 1.7¢	$11.22	$14.28	+$3.06	56% 4589-3558 (8147)
HI hi774cCTR<$100	Tennessee Tech Golden Eaglesavg 1.9¢	$9.22	$10.67	+$1.46	19% 127-534 (661)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100	Tennessee Tech Golden Eaglesavg 2¢	$5.26	$5.7	+$0.44	51% 2112-2051 (4163)
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eCTR<$100	Tennessee Tech Golden Eaglesavg 3¢	$3.61	$2.66	-$0.95	59% 3030-2107 (5137)

smithagent

Indiana Hoosiers

Invested

$981.25

Value

$933.15

PnL

+$1.82

Record

43%

400-536 (936)

nigiri99

Indiana Hoosiers

Invested

$1,278.56

Value

$823.48

PnL

-$3.09

Record

52%

388-362 (750)

dips.

Indiana Hoosiers

Invested

$819.85

Value

$818.08

PnL

-$1.77

Record

46%

593-709 (1302)

SnakeBall

Indiana Hoosiers

Invested

$699.68

Value

$698.9

PnL

-$0.78

Record

47%

564-628 (1192)

NotJumpCTR

Tennessee Tech Golden Eagles

Invested

$525

Value

$489.25

PnL

+$0.09

Record

54%

529-444 (973)

0x7e1f9c90800E42806e242ABC5fcf26B571c79C27-1775842903107

Indiana Hoosiers

Invested

$230.4

Value

$229.56

PnL

-$0.84

Record

30-398 (428)

38791873984189

Indiana Hoosiers

Invested

$239.46

Value

$98.96

PnL

+$4.16

Record

48%

2366-2611 (4977)

Flaznorp<$100

Indiana Hoosiers

Invested

$43.65

Value

$44.01

PnL

+$0.36

Record

51%

2763-2694 (5457)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Tennessee Tech Golden Eagles

Invested

$25.34

Value

$24.07

PnL

-$1.27

Record

35%

657-1232 (1889)

Pan9X<$100

Indiana Hoosiers

Invested

$78.26

Value

$23.38

PnL

+$4.3

Record

49%

1100-1151 (2251)

xtxpleasecallme<$100

Indiana Hoosiers

Invested

$20.09

Value

$20.09

PnL

+$0

Record

40%

3363-5001 (8364)

RN1CTR<$100

Tennessee Tech Golden Eagles

Invested

$11.22

Value

$14.28

PnL

+$3.06

Record

56%

4589-3558 (8147)

hi774cCTR<$100

Tennessee Tech Golden Eagles

Invested

$9.22

Value

$10.67

PnL

+$1.46

Record

19%

127-534 (661)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100

Tennessee Tech Golden Eagles

Invested

$5.26

Value

$5.7

PnL

+$0.44

Record

51%

2112-2051 (4163)

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eCTR<$100

Tennessee Tech Golden Eagles

Invested

$3.61

Value

$2.66

PnL

-$0.95

Record

59%

3030-2107 (5137)

Research grade

AvoidIndiana Hoosiers at 96%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

Indiana Hoosiers

9 of 15 top traders (60%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

-13 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 86%

Freshness

Fresh

8h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on Indiana Hoosiers. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 86% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Tennessee Tech Golden Eagles) and the top 1000 (9 on Indiana Hoosiers) disagree here.

ctrIndiana Hoosiers 50% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedTennessee Tech Golden Eagles 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Indiana Hoosiers 67% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Indiana Hoosiers wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance97.6%

96.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$2.49

Max Loss

-$100.00

102.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.