Tarleton State Texans vs. San Diego Toreros

6 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold San Diego Toreros (46%) · San Diego Toreros at 57¢ · $3K held · ended Nov 7

Tarleton State Texans43¢San Diego Toreros57¢Ended Sat, Nov 7, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

San Diego Toreros

Consensus Traders

San Diego Toreros 46%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$3.2K

Combined PnL

$467.57

Smart Money Entry

49.7¢ → 57¢

+15% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

AvoidSan Diego Toreros at 57%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

San Diego Toreros

6 of 13 top traders (46%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Tarleton State Texans43%

San Diego Toreros57%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

San Diego Toreros6 traders

Total Value$1.6K

Total Shares2,125

Combined PnL-$52.83

Tarleton State Texans7 traders

Total Value$1.1K

Total Shares1,425

Combined PnL+$520.4

San Diego Toreros — 46%Tarleton State Texans — 54%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RN1	San Diego Torerosavg 48.6¢	$903.86	$849.5	-$54.36	53% 61999-54294 (116293)
0X 0xb4F978BE63cDF75554b0B46a4262a6dB597cc9A7-1779258330186CTR	Tarleton State Texansavg 41.6¢	$271.46	$555.72	+$284.27	46% 517-596 (1113)
38 38791873984189	San Diego Torerosavg 41.8¢	$613.21	$422.03	+$10.08	48% 62067-66946 (129013)
CI cigarettesARB<$100	Tarleton State Texansavg 95.9¢	$368.83	$417.67	+$48.83	53% 24131-21178 (45309)
└ San Diego Toreros leg	San Diego Torerosavg 21.9¢	$117.08	$304.66	+$187.58
└ Tarleton State Texans leg	Tarleton State Texansavg 95.9¢	$251.75	$113.01	-$138.74
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR	Tarleton State Texansavg 32.3¢	$762.18	$225.4	+$91.68	56% 8434-6558 (14992)
FL Flaznorp	San Diego Torerosavg 70.6¢	$208.42	$193.36	-$15.05	51% 26809-25398 (52207)
BO BoomLaLaCTR	Tarleton State Texansavg 43¢	$64.5	$139.12	+$77.22	53% 12545-11258 (23803)
PA Pan9XARB<$100	San Diego Torerosavg 33.2¢	$182.82	$126.61	+$40.57	54% 10172-8548 (18720)
└ San Diego Toreros leg	San Diego Torerosavg 33.2¢	$58.71	$98.77	+$60.14
└ Tarleton State Texans leg	Tarleton State Texansavg 66.9¢	$42.13	$27.85	-$19.57
dips.CTR<$100	Tarleton State Texansavg 95.2¢	$40.3	$97.27	+$58.46	47% 10879-12454 (23333)
HI hi774cCTR<$100	Tarleton State Texansavg 28¢	$50.82	$62.61	+$11.8	46% 5268-6113 (11381)
AV averagejoetraders<$100	San Diego Torerosavg 39.1¢	$28.73	$41.17	+$12.44	57% 668-513 (1181)
HO HomeRunHazard<$100	San Diego Torerosavg 72.1¢	$43.07	$39.13	-$3.95	54% 18314-15419 (33733)
OX oxe78sh4w98<$100	San Diego Torerosavg 44.7¢	$27.68	$25.69	-$1.99	53% 602-536 (1138)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR<$100	Tarleton State Texansavg 57.2¢	$11.45	$10.9	-$0.55	59% 33136-23300 (56436)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100	Tarleton State Texansavg 96¢	$4.8	$2.32	-$2.48	34% 19523-37138 (56661)

RN1

San Diego Toreros

Invested

$903.86

Value

$849.5

PnL

-$54.36

Record

53%

61999-54294 (116293)

0xb4F978BE63cDF75554b0B46a4262a6dB597cc9A7-1779258330186CTR

Tarleton State Texans

Invested

$271.46

Value

$555.72

PnL

+$284.27

Record

46%

517-596 (1113)

38791873984189

San Diego Toreros

Invested

$613.21

Value

$422.03

PnL

+$10.08

Record

48%

62067-66946 (129013)

cigarettesARB<$100

Tarleton State Texans

Invested

$368.83

Value

$417.67

PnL

+$48.83

Record

53%

24131-21178 (45309)

Both legs:

San Diego Toreros$117.0821.9¢+$187.58

Tarleton State Texans$251.7595.9¢-$138.74

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR

Tarleton State Texans

Invested

$762.18

Value

$225.4

PnL

+$91.68

Record

56%

8434-6558 (14992)

Flaznorp

San Diego Toreros

Invested

$208.42

Value

$193.36

PnL

-$15.05

Record

51%

26809-25398 (52207)

BoomLaLaCTR

Tarleton State Texans

Invested

$64.5

Value

$139.12

PnL

+$77.22

Record

53%

12545-11258 (23803)

Pan9XARB<$100

San Diego Toreros

Invested

$182.82

Value

$126.61

PnL

+$40.57

Record

54%

10172-8548 (18720)

Both legs:

San Diego Toreros$58.7133.2¢+$60.14

Tarleton State Texans$42.1366.9¢-$19.57

dips.CTR<$100

Tarleton State Texans

Invested

$40.3

Value

$97.27

PnL

+$58.46

Record

47%

10879-12454 (23333)

hi774cCTR<$100

Tarleton State Texans

Invested

$50.82

Value

$62.61

PnL

+$11.8

Record

46%

5268-6113 (11381)

averagejoetraders<$100

San Diego Toreros

Invested

$28.73

Value

$41.17

PnL

+$12.44

Record

57%

668-513 (1181)

HomeRunHazard<$100

San Diego Toreros

Invested

$43.07

Value

$39.13

PnL

-$3.95

Record

54%

18314-15419 (33733)

oxe78sh4w98<$100

San Diego Toreros

Invested

$27.68

Value

$25.69

PnL

-$1.99

Record

53%

602-536 (1138)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR<$100

Tarleton State Texans

Invested

$11.45

Value

$10.9

PnL

-$0.55

Record

59%

33136-23300 (56436)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100

Tarleton State Texans

Invested

$4.8

Value

$2.32

PnL

-$2.48

Record

34%

19523-37138 (56661)

Research grade

AvoidSan Diego Toreros at 57%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

San Diego Toreros

6 of 13 top traders (46%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that San Diego Toreros wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance59.2%

57.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$69.01

Max Loss

-$100.00

169.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.