Southern Illinois Salukis vs. Kansas City Roos

5 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Kansas City Roos (50%) · Kansas City Roos at 90¢ · $6K held · ended Nov 7

Southern Illinois Salukis11¢Kansas City Roos89¢Ended Sat, Nov 7, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Kansas City Roos

Consensus Traders

Kansas City Roos 50%

4 arb excluded

Total Value

$5.9K

Combined PnL

-$379.98

Smart Money Entry

54.3¢ → 89.5¢

+65% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

AvoidKansas City Roos at 90%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Kansas City Roos

5 of 10 top traders (50%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Southern Illinois Salukis11%

Kansas City Roos90%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Kansas City Roos5 traders

Total Value$3.4K

Total Shares6,085

Combined PnL-$405.75

Southern Illinois Salukis5 traders

Total Value$1.2K

Total Shares2,440

Combined PnL+$25.76

Kansas City Roos — 50%Southern Illinois Salukis — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+7 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 89%

Freshness

Fresh

3h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

57% of non-arb traders are on Kansas City Roos. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 89% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on Southern Illinois Salukis) and the top 1000 (6 on Kansas City Roos) disagree here.

whaleKansas City Roos 67% · 3

Aligned

ctrSouthern Illinois Salukis 50% · 6

Diverging

Hand-pickedSouthern Illinois Salukis 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Kansas City Roos 67% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465	Kansas City Roosavg 50.7¢	$2.3K	$2.2K	-$100.03	53% 6300-5583 (11883)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR	Southern Illinois Salukisavg 50¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	+$33.44	46% 1702-1988 (3690)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872	Kansas City Roosavg 76.9¢	$1.2K	$863.96	-$298.36	56% 8430-6558 (14988)
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Southern Illinois Salukisavg 51¢	$732.88	$624.1	-$108.78	51% 26669-25270 (51939)
└ Kansas City Roos leg	Kansas City Roosavg 61.5¢	$360.05	$430.37	+$70.33
└ Southern Illinois Salukis leg	Southern Illinois Salukisavg 51¢	$372.83	$193.73	-$179.11
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Southern Illinois Salukisavg 50.4¢	$413.38	$329.55	-$6.83	48% 62058-66943 (129001)
└ Southern Illinois Salukis leg	Southern Illinois Salukisavg 50.4¢	$195.08	$178.02	-$17.37
└ Kansas City Roos leg	Kansas City Roosavg 50.2¢	$140.84	$151.53	+$10.54
HO HomeRunHazard	Kansas City Roosavg 50.3¢	$250.81	$244.27	-$6.53	54% 18313-15414 (33727)
RN1ARB<$100	Southern Illinois Salukisavg 40.5¢	$236.96	$172.92	-$64.05	53% 61934-54221 (116155)
└ Southern Illinois Salukis leg	Southern Illinois Salukisavg 40.5¢	$205.74	$127	-$78.74
└ Kansas City Roos leg	Kansas City Roosavg 51¢	$31.22	$45.92	+$14.69
CM cm2897ARB<$100	Southern Illinois Salukisavg 25.3¢	$205.82	$153.74	-$52.08	51% 2192-2133 (4325)
└ Southern Illinois Salukis leg	Southern Illinois Salukisavg 25.3¢	$142.01	$87.01	-$55
└ Kansas City Roos leg	Kansas City Roosavg 80.8¢	$63.81	$66.73	+$2.92
0xheavy888CTR<$100	Southern Illinois Salukisavg 48.9¢	$75.4	$78.58	+$0.87	56% 8134-6444 (14578)
nigiri99<$100	Kansas City Roosavg 52.3¢	$42.33	$40.5	-$1.83	46% 8703-10373 (19076)
SE sentrio<$100	Kansas City Roosavg 49¢	$33.13	$33.81	+$1.01	50% 26223-25873 (52096)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Southern Illinois Salukisavg 50.3¢	$24.64	$15.93	-$8.72	54% 10168-8540 (18708)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100	Southern Illinois Salukisavg 48¢	$4.3	$4.39	+$0.09	58% 47221-34058 (81279)
BO BoomLaLaCTR<$100	Southern Illinois Salukisavg 48¢	$2.4	$2.45	+$0.08	53% 12543-11257 (23800)

0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465

Kansas City Roos

Invested

$2,325.96

Value

$2.2K

PnL

-$100.03

Record

53%

6300-5583 (11883)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR

Southern Illinois Salukis

Invested

$1,114.77

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$33.44

Record

46%

1702-1988 (3690)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872

Kansas City Roos

Invested

$1,162.32

Value

$863.96

PnL

-$298.36

Record

56%

8430-6558 (14988)

FlaznorpARB<$100

Southern Illinois Salukis

Invested

$732.88

Value

$624.1

PnL

-$108.78

Record

51%

26669-25270 (51939)

Both legs:

Kansas City Roos$360.0561.5¢+$70.33

Southern Illinois Salukis$372.8351¢-$179.11

38791873984189ARB<$100

Southern Illinois Salukis

Invested

$413.38

Value

$329.55

PnL

-$6.83

Record

48%

62058-66943 (129001)

Both legs:

Southern Illinois Salukis$195.0850.4¢-$17.37

Kansas City Roos$140.8450.2¢+$10.54

HomeRunHazard

Kansas City Roos

Invested

$250.81

Value

$244.27

PnL

-$6.53

Record

54%

18313-15414 (33727)

RN1ARB<$100

Southern Illinois Salukis

Invested

$236.96

Value

$172.92

PnL

-$64.05

Record

53%

61934-54221 (116155)

Both legs:

Southern Illinois Salukis$205.7440.5¢-$78.74

Kansas City Roos$31.2251¢+$14.69

cm2897ARB<$100

Southern Illinois Salukis

Invested

$205.82

Value

$153.74

PnL

-$52.08

Record

51%

2192-2133 (4325)

Both legs:

Southern Illinois Salukis$142.0125.3¢-$55

Kansas City Roos$63.8180.8¢+$2.92

0xheavy888CTR<$100

Southern Illinois Salukis

Invested

$75.4

Value

$78.58

PnL

+$0.87

Record

56%

8134-6444 (14578)

nigiri99<$100

Kansas City Roos

Invested

$42.33

Value

$40.5

PnL

-$1.83

Record

46%

8703-10373 (19076)

sentrio<$100

Kansas City Roos

Invested

$33.13

Value

$33.81

PnL

+$1.01

Record

50%

26223-25873 (52096)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Southern Illinois Salukis

Invested

$24.64

Value

$15.93

PnL

-$8.72

Record

54%

10168-8540 (18708)

VeryLucky888CTR<$100

Southern Illinois Salukis

Invested

$4.3

Value

$4.39

PnL

+$0.09

Record

58%

47221-34058 (81279)

BoomLaLaCTR<$100

Southern Illinois Salukis

Invested

$2.4

Value

$2.45

PnL

+$0.08

Record

53%

12543-11257 (23800)

Research grade

AvoidKansas City Roos at 90%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Kansas City Roos

5 of 10 top traders (50%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+7 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 89%

Freshness

Fresh

3h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

57% of non-arb traders are on Kansas City Roos. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 89% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on Southern Illinois Salukis) and the top 1000 (6 on Kansas City Roos) disagree here.

whaleKansas City Roos 67% · 3

Aligned

ctrSouthern Illinois Salukis 50% · 6

Diverging

Hand-pickedSouthern Illinois Salukis 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Kansas City Roos 67% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Kansas City Roos wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance90.9%

89.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$9.97

Max Loss

-$100.00

110.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.