Robert Morris Colonials vs. UIC Flames

10 of 14 top Polymarket traders hold UIC Flames (71%) · UIC Flames at 100¢ · $3K held · ended Nov 7

Robert Morris Colonials<1¢UIC Flames>99¢Ended Sat, Nov 7, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

UIC Flames

Consensus Traders

UIC Flames 71%

Total Value

$3.0K

Combined PnL

$107.62

Smart Money Entry

87.2¢ → 100¢

+15% since entry · 10 traders

Research grade

AvoidUIC Flames at 100%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

UIC Flames

10 of 14 top traders (71%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Robert Morris Colonials0%

UIC Flames100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

UIC Flames10 traders

Total Value$2.9K

Total Shares3,020

Combined PnL+$120.67

Robert Morris Colonials4 traders

Total Value$114.34

Total Shares1,235

Combined PnL-$13.06

UIC Flames — 71%Robert Morris Colonials — 29%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

3h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on UIC Flames. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleUIC Flames 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrUIC Flames 75% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedUIC Flames 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000UIC Flames 50% · 4

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872	UIC Flamesavg 90.1¢	$654.92	$723.49	+$68.57	56% 8430-6558 (14988)
FL Flaznorp	UIC Flamesavg 90.4¢	$611.29	$635.1	+$23.81	51% 26669-25270 (51939)
0xheavy888	UIC Flamesavg 83¢	$617.38	$624.92	-$14.78	56% 8134-6444 (14578)
38 38791873984189	UIC Flamesavg 83.9¢	$262.46	$312.81	+$50.34	48% 62058-66943 (129001)
RN1	UIC Flamesavg 90¢	$271.39	$259.78	-$11.61	53% 61934-54221 (116155)
CM cm2897	UIC Flamesavg 86.4¢	$129.46	$119.14	-$10.32	51% 2192-2133 (4325)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR	Robert Morris Colonialsavg 9.9¢	$104.78	$89.68	-$15.1	59% 33125-23292 (56417)
VeryLucky888<$100	UIC Flamesavg 82¢	$82	$83	+$1	58% 47221-34058 (81279)
PA Pan9X<$100	UIC Flamesavg 86.2¢	$78.89	$67.97	+$8.12	54% 10168-8540 (18708)
BO BoomLaLa<$100	UIC Flamesavg 89¢	$42.73	$47.77	+$5.04	53% 12543-11257 (23800)
HO HomeRunHazardCTR<$100	Robert Morris Colonialsavg 16.1¢	$11	$10.9	-$0.1	54% 18313-15414 (33727)
HI hi774cCTR<$100	Robert Morris Colonialsavg 14¢	$8.9	$10.17	+$1.91	46% 5267-6109 (11376)
XT xtxpleasecallme<$100	UIC Flamesavg 90¢	$4.5	$5	+$0.5	34% 19516-37111 (56627)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100	Robert Morris Colonialsavg 7¢	$3.36	$3.6	+$0.24	46% 1702-1988 (3690)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872

UIC Flames

Invested

$654.92

Value

$723.49

PnL

+$68.57

Record

56%

8430-6558 (14988)

Flaznorp

UIC Flames

Invested

$611.29

Value

$635.1

PnL

+$23.81

Record

51%

26669-25270 (51939)

0xheavy888

UIC Flames

Invested

$617.38

Value

$624.92

PnL

-$14.78

Record

56%

8134-6444 (14578)

38791873984189

UIC Flames

Invested

$262.46

Value

$312.81

PnL

+$50.34

Record

48%

62058-66943 (129001)

RN1

UIC Flames

Invested

$271.39

Value

$259.78

PnL

-$11.61

Record

53%

61934-54221 (116155)

cm2897

UIC Flames

Invested

$129.46

Value

$119.14

PnL

-$10.32

Record

51%

2192-2133 (4325)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR

Robert Morris Colonials

Invested

$104.78

Value

$89.68

PnL

-$15.1

Record

59%

33125-23292 (56417)

VeryLucky888<$100

UIC Flames

Invested

$82

Value

$83

PnL

+$1

Record

58%

47221-34058 (81279)

Pan9X<$100

UIC Flames

Invested

$78.89

Value

$67.97

PnL

+$8.12

Record

54%

10168-8540 (18708)

BoomLaLa<$100

UIC Flames

Invested

$42.73

Value

$47.77

PnL

+$5.04

Record

53%

12543-11257 (23800)

HomeRunHazardCTR<$100

Robert Morris Colonials

Invested

$11

Value

$10.9

PnL

-$0.1

Record

54%

18313-15414 (33727)

hi774cCTR<$100

Robert Morris Colonials

Invested

$8.9

Value

$10.17

PnL

+$1.91

Record

46%

5267-6109 (11376)

xtxpleasecallme<$100

UIC Flames

Invested

$4.5

Value

PnL

+$0.5

Record

34%

19516-37111 (56627)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100

Robert Morris Colonials

Invested

$3.36

Value

$3.6

PnL

+$0.24

Record

46%

1702-1988 (3690)

Research grade

AvoidUIC Flames at 100%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

UIC Flames

10 of 14 top traders (71%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

3h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on UIC Flames. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleUIC Flames 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrUIC Flames 75% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedUIC Flames 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000UIC Flames 50% · 4

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that UIC Flames wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.