Portland Pilots vs. UT Arlington Mavericks

5 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Portland Pilots (45%) · Portland Pilots at 54¢ · $7K held · ended Nov 7

Portland Pilots54¢UT Arlington Mavericks46¢Ended Sat, Nov 7, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Portland Pilots

Consensus Traders

Portland Pilots 45%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$7.4K

Combined PnL

-$544.92

Smart Money Entry

47.4¢ → 53.5¢

+13% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

AvoidPortland Pilots at 54%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Portland Pilots

5 of 11 top traders (45%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Portland Pilots54%

UT Arlington Mavericks47%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Portland Pilots5 traders

Total Value$2.3K

Total Shares5,190

Combined PnL-$178.42

UT Arlington Mavericks6 traders

Total Value$2.0K

Total Shares4,405

Combined PnL-$366.5

Portland Pilots — 45%UT Arlington Mavericks — 55%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	UT Arlington Mavericksavg 66¢	$2.4K	$2.1K	-$342.57	51% 26669-25270 (51939)
└ UT Arlington Mavericks leg	UT Arlington Mavericksavg 66¢	$1.6K	$1.3K	-$362.15
└ Portland Pilots leg	Portland Pilotsavg 47.3¢	$749.96	$769.54	+$19.58
nigiri99	Portland Pilotsavg 57¢	$1.2K	$1.1K	-$158.93	46% 8703-10373 (19076)
RN1ARB<$100	UT Arlington Mavericksavg 64.2¢	$1.2K	$883.24	-$351	53% 61934-54221 (116155)
└ UT Arlington Mavericks leg	UT Arlington Mavericksavg 64.2¢	$1.1K	$695.87	-$367.7
└ Portland Pilots leg	Portland Pilotsavg 52.8¢	$170.68	$187.38	+$16.7
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR	UT Arlington Mavericksavg 55.8¢	$1.0K	$836.16	-$189.12	56% 8430-6558 (14988)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846	Portland Pilotsavg 36.9¢	$836.56	$758.51	-$78.05	59% 33125-23292 (56417)
0X 0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465CTR	UT Arlington Mavericksavg 44.2¢	$681.36	$593.15	-$88.21	53% 6300-5583 (11883)
HO HomeRunHazard	Portland Pilotsavg 53¢	$372.21	$431.74	+$59.53	54% 18313-15414 (33727)
38 38791873984189CTR	UT Arlington Mavericksavg 55.9¢	$372.38	$315.29	-$57.09	48% 62058-66943 (129001)
CM cm2897ARB<$100	Portland Pilotsavg 39.2¢	$196.71	$207.84	+$11.13	51% 2192-2133 (4325)
└ Portland Pilots leg	Portland Pilotsavg 39.2¢	$147.02	$144.5	-$2.52
└ UT Arlington Mavericks leg	UT Arlington Mavericksavg 48.2¢	$49.69	$63.35	+$13.65
PA panpidaras1CTR	UT Arlington Mavericksavg 54.2¢	$107.22	$107.72	+$0.5	48% 281-309 (590)
PA Pan9XCTR	UT Arlington Mavericksavg 68.8¢	$120.89	$89.6	-$28.09	54% 10168-8540 (18708)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100	UT Arlington Mavericksavg 43¢	$43	$38.5	-$4.5	58% 47221-34058 (81279)
SU SunflowaRebuildYear<$100	Portland Pilotsavg 39.2¢	$34.87	$33.38	-$1.49	46% 439-522 (961)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	Portland Pilotsavg 51¢	$2.55	$3.08	+$0.53	52% 8875-8058 (16933)

FlaznorpARB<$100

UT Arlington Mavericks

Invested

$2,398.27

Value

$2.1K

PnL

-$342.57

Record

51%

26669-25270 (51939)

Both legs:

UT Arlington Mavericks$1,648.3166¢-$362.15

Portland Pilots$749.9647.3¢+$19.58

nigiri99

Portland Pilots

Invested

$1,213.28

Value

$1.1K

PnL

-$158.93

Record

46%

8703-10373 (19076)

RN1ARB<$100

UT Arlington Mavericks

Invested

$1,234.24

Value

$883.24

PnL

-$351

Record

53%

61934-54221 (116155)

Both legs:

UT Arlington Mavericks$1,063.5764.2¢-$367.7

Portland Pilots$170.6852.8¢+$16.7

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR

UT Arlington Mavericks

Invested

$1,025.29

Value

$836.16

PnL

-$189.12

Record

56%

8430-6558 (14988)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846

Portland Pilots

Invested

$836.56

Value

$758.51

PnL

-$78.05

Record

59%

33125-23292 (56417)

0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465CTR

UT Arlington Mavericks

Invested

$681.36

Value

$593.15

PnL

-$88.21

Record

53%

6300-5583 (11883)

HomeRunHazard

Portland Pilots

Invested

$372.21

Value

$431.74

PnL

+$59.53

Record

54%

18313-15414 (33727)

38791873984189CTR

UT Arlington Mavericks

Invested

$372.38

Value

$315.29

PnL

-$57.09

Record

48%

62058-66943 (129001)

cm2897ARB<$100

Portland Pilots

Invested

$196.71

Value

$207.84

PnL

+$11.13

Record

51%

2192-2133 (4325)

Both legs:

Portland Pilots$147.0239.2¢-$2.52

UT Arlington Mavericks$49.6948.2¢+$13.65

panpidaras1CTR

UT Arlington Mavericks

Invested

$107.22

Value

$107.72

PnL

+$0.5

Record

48%

281-309 (590)

Pan9XCTR

UT Arlington Mavericks

Invested

$120.89

Value

$89.6

PnL

-$28.09

Record

54%

10168-8540 (18708)

VeryLucky888CTR<$100

UT Arlington Mavericks

Invested

$43

Value

$38.5

PnL

-$4.5

Record

58%

47221-34058 (81279)

SunflowaRebuildYear<$100

Portland Pilots

Invested

$34.87

Value

$33.38

PnL

-$1.49

Record

46%

439-522 (961)

ameisgoat11<$100

Portland Pilots

Invested

$2.55

Value

$3.08

PnL

+$0.53

Record

52%

8875-8058 (16933)

Research grade

AvoidPortland Pilots at 54%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Portland Pilots

5 of 11 top traders (45%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Portland Pilots wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance55.7%

53.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$79.40

Max Loss

-$100.00

179.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.