Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Mercyhurst Lakers, while the market favors Penn State Nittany Lions (90%). 11 of 12 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Mercyhurst Lakers vs. Penn State Nittany Lions

11 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Mercyhurst Lakers (92%) · Mercyhurst Lakers at 9.8¢ · $79 held · ended Nov 12

Mercyhurst Lakers10¢Penn State Nittany Lions90¢Ended Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Mercyhurst Lakers

Consensus Traders

Mercyhurst Lakers 92%

Total Value

$79.43

Combined PnL

$10.01

Research grade

AvoidMercyhurst Lakers at 10%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Mercyhurst Lakers

11 of 12 top traders (92%)Underdog side (market favors Penn State Nittany Lions 90%)11 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Mercyhurst Lakers10%

Penn State Nittany Lions90%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Mercyhurst Lakers11 traders

Total Value$67.51

Total Shares2,035

Combined PnL+$3.01

Penn State Nittany Lions1 trader

Total Value$11.92

Total Shares5

Combined PnL+$7.01

Mercyhurst Lakers — 92%Penn State Nittany Lions — 8%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 55%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

88% of non-arb traders are on Mercyhurst Lakers. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 55% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrMercyhurst Lakers 100% · 5

Aligned

Top 1000Mercyhurst Lakers 88% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
dips.CTR<$100	Mercyhurst Lakersavg 5.3¢	$6.81	$12.55	+$5.74	46% 593-709 (1302)
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	Mercyhurst Lakersavg 3.2¢	$32.01	$12.35	+$2.37	48% 2366-2611 (4977)
PA Pan9X<$100	Penn State Nittany Lionsavg 96.8¢	$48.91	$11.92	+$7.01	49% 1100-1151 (2251)
RN1CTR<$100	Mercyhurst Lakersavg 2¢	$6.81	$11.49	+$4.68	56% 4589-3558 (8147)
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eCTR<$100	Mercyhurst Lakersavg 3.9¢	$12.36	$7.93	-$4.44	59% 3030-2107 (5137)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR<$100	Mercyhurst Lakersavg 2.2¢	$15.8	$7.92	-$7.88	54% 1122-947 (2069)
SM smithagentCTR<$100	Mercyhurst Lakersavg 1.8¢	$0.92	$4.77	+$3.84	43% 400-536 (936)
nigiri99CTR	Mercyhurst Lakersavg 3.2¢	$210.71	$3.36	-$0.35	52% 388-362 (750)
OD OddstormCTR<$100	Mercyhurst Lakersavg 3.5¢	$3.53	$3.23	-$0.3	28% 58-150 (208)
SU suntoriCTR<$100	Mercyhurst Lakersavg 4.4¢	$1.9	$1.81	-$0.09	46% 1757-2031 (3788)
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100	Mercyhurst Lakersavg 3¢	$1.5	$1.1	-$0.4	51% 2763-2694 (5457)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Mercyhurst Lakersavg 3.8¢	$1.18	$0.99	-$0.19	33% 629-1267 (1896)

dips.CTR<$100

Mercyhurst Lakers

Invested

$6.81

Value

$12.55

PnL

+$5.74

Record

46%

593-709 (1302)

38791873984189CTR<$100

Mercyhurst Lakers

Invested

$32.01

Value

$12.35

PnL

+$2.37

Record

48%

2366-2611 (4977)

Pan9X<$100

Penn State Nittany Lions

Invested

$48.91

Value

$11.92

PnL

+$7.01

Record

49%

1100-1151 (2251)

RN1CTR<$100

Mercyhurst Lakers

Invested

$6.81

Value

$11.49

PnL

+$4.68

Record

56%

4589-3558 (8147)

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eCTR<$100

Mercyhurst Lakers

Invested

$12.36

Value

$7.93

PnL

-$4.44

Record

59%

3030-2107 (5137)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR<$100

Mercyhurst Lakers

Invested

$15.8

Value

$7.92

PnL

-$7.88

Record

54%

1122-947 (2069)

smithagentCTR<$100

Mercyhurst Lakers

Invested

$0.92

Value

$4.77

PnL

+$3.84

Record

43%

400-536 (936)

nigiri99CTR

Mercyhurst Lakers

Invested

$210.71

Value

$3.36

PnL

-$0.35

Record

52%

388-362 (750)

OddstormCTR<$100

Mercyhurst Lakers

Invested

$3.53

Value

$3.23

PnL

-$0.3

Record

28%

58-150 (208)

suntoriCTR<$100

Mercyhurst Lakers

Invested

$1.9

Value

$1.81

PnL

-$0.09

Record

46%

1757-2031 (3788)

FlaznorpCTR<$100

Mercyhurst Lakers

Invested

$1.5

Value

$1.1

PnL

-$0.4

Record

51%

2763-2694 (5457)

VenusianCTR<$100

Mercyhurst Lakers

Invested

$1.18

Value

$0.99

PnL

-$0.19

Record

33%

629-1267 (1896)

Research grade

AvoidMercyhurst Lakers at 10%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.

Smart Money Signal

Mercyhurst Lakers

11 of 12 top traders (92%)Underdog side (market favors Penn State Nittany Lions 90%)11 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 55%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

88% of non-arb traders are on Mercyhurst Lakers. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 55% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrMercyhurst Lakers 100% · 5

Aligned

Top 1000Mercyhurst Lakers 88% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Mercyhurst Lakers wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance11.2%

9.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$790.49

Max Loss

-$100.00

890.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.