Maryland Eastern Shore Hawks vs. Rhode Island Rams
4 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Rhode Island Rams (44%) · Rhode Island Rams at 97¢ · $1K held · ended Nov 13
⚠️
Avoid
Rhode Island Rams
9
Rhode Island Rams 44%
$1.2K
$17.36
97.3¢ → 96.5¢
-1% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
AvoidRhode Island Rams at 97%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 9 top traders (44%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 nigiri99 | Rhode Island Ramsavg 97.4¢ | $1.0K | $1.0K | -$0.52 | 52% 388-362 (750) |
38 38791873984189<$100 | Rhode Island Ramsavg 95.8¢ | $40.82 | $40.27 | -$0.56 | 48% 2366-2611 (4977) |
PA Pan9X<$100 | Rhode Island Ramsavg 98.1¢ | $34.34 | $34.48 | +$0.14 | 49% 1100-1151 (2251) |
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR<$100 | Maryland Eastern Shore Hawksavg 3.7¢ | $15.53 | $33.52 | +$17.99 | 54% 1122-947 (2069) |
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100 | Maryland Eastern Shore Hawksavg 2.6¢ | $27.01 | $27.53 | +$0.52 | 47% 564-628 (1192) |
XT xtxpleasecallme<$100 | Rhode Island Ramsavg 96.5¢ | $19.99 | $19.55 | -$0.43 | 40% 3363-5001 (8364) |
OD OddstormCTR<$100 | Maryland Eastern Shore Hawksavg 2.3¢ | $0.51 | $0.58 | +$0.08 | 28% 58-150 (208) |
SM smithagentCTR<$100 | Maryland Eastern Shore Hawksavg 3¢ | $0.31 | $0.36 | +$0.05 | 43% 400-536 (936) |
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100 | Maryland Eastern Shore Hawksavg 1.1¢ | $0.07 | $0.16 | +$0.09 | 51% 2763-2694 (5457) |
nigiri99Invested
$1,011.01
Value
$1.0K
PnL
-$0.52
Record
52%
388-362 (750)
Invested
$40.82
Value
$40.27
PnL
-$0.56
Record
48%
2366-2611 (4977)
Invested
$34.34
Value
$34.48
PnL
+$0.14
Record
49%
1100-1151 (2251)
Invested
$15.53
Value
$33.52
PnL
+$17.99
Record
54%
1122-947 (2069)
Invested
$27.01
Value
$27.53
PnL
+$0.52
Record
47%
564-628 (1192)
Invested
$19.99
Value
$19.55
PnL
-$0.43
Record
40%
3363-5001 (8364)
Invested
$0.51
Value
$0.58
PnL
+$0.08
Record
28%
58-150 (208)
Invested
$0.31
Value
$0.36
PnL
+$0.05
Record
43%
400-536 (936)
Invested
$0.07
Value
$0.16
PnL
+$0.09
Record
51%
2763-2694 (5457)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
96.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.
Market Info
Traders in this Market
nigiri99
Rhode Island Rams — $1.0K
38791873984189
Rhode Island Rams — $40.27
Pan9X
Rhode Island Rams — $34.48
0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872
CTRMaryland Eastern Shore Hawks — $33.52
SnakeBall
CTRMaryland Eastern Shore Hawks — $27.53
xtxpleasecallme
Rhode Island Rams — $19.55
Oddstorm
CTRMaryland Eastern Shore Hawks — $0.58
smithagent
CTRMaryland Eastern Shore Hawks — $0.36
Flaznorp
CTRMaryland Eastern Shore Hawks — $0.16