Marshall Thundering Herd vs. Ohio State Buckeyes

7 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Ohio State Buckeyes (78%) · Ohio State Buckeyes at 99¢ · $4K held · ended Nov 9

Marshall Thundering Herd<1¢Ohio State Buckeyes>99¢Ended Mon, Nov 9, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Ohio State Buckeyes

Consensus Traders

Ohio State Buckeyes 78%

Total Value

$4.2K

Combined PnL

$47.69

Smart Money Entry

97.2¢ → 99.5¢

+2% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

AvoidOhio State Buckeyes at 99%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Ohio State Buckeyes

7 of 9 top traders (78%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Marshall Thundering Herd1%

Ohio State Buckeyes99%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Ohio State Buckeyes7 traders

Total Value$4.2K

Total Shares4,197

Combined PnL+$77.59

Marshall Thundering Herd2 traders

Total Value$7.19

Total Shares1,790

Combined PnL-$29.9

Ohio State Buckeyes — 78%Marshall Thundering Herd — 22%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-2 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 81%

Freshness

Fresh

4h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

78% of non-arb traders are on Ohio State Buckeyes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 81% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrOhio State Buckeyes 67% · 6

Aligned

Top 1000Ohio State Buckeyes 78% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
SN SnakeBall	Ohio State Buckeyesavg 97.3¢	$2.7K	$2.7K	+$44.74	45% 38-47 (85)
38 38791873984189	Ohio State Buckeyesavg 97.1¢	$742.26	$648.88	+$14.4	49% 388-405 (793)
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e	Ohio State Buckeyesavg 98.1¢	$333.86	$338.97	+$5.1	52% 469-425 (894)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872	Ohio State Buckeyesavg 96.4¢	$229.22	$236.83	+$7.61	52% 190-176 (366)
PA Pan9X	Ohio State Buckeyesavg 96.7¢	$129.61	$114.54	+$3.49	48% 174-190 (364)
nigiri99<$100	Ohio State Buckeyesavg 97.5¢	$81.06	$82.67	+$1.61	42% 28-38 (66)
XT xtxpleasecallme<$100	Ohio State Buckeyesavg 97.6¢	$30.98	$31.61	+$0.63	69% 48-22 (70)
HI hi774cCTR<$100	Marshall Thundering Herdavg 2.1¢	$37.11	$7.07	-$30.04	3% 9-250 (259)
FO forecastication4CTR<$100	Marshall Thundering Herdavg 2¢	$22.95	$0.13	+$0.14	5% 4-79 (83)

SnakeBall

Ohio State Buckeyes

Invested

$2,686.97

Value

$2.7K

PnL

+$44.74

Record

45%

38-47 (85)

38791873984189

Ohio State Buckeyes

Invested

$742.26

Value

$648.88

PnL

+$14.4

Record

49%

388-405 (793)

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e

Ohio State Buckeyes

Invested

$333.86

Value

$338.97

PnL

+$5.1

Record

52%

469-425 (894)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872

Ohio State Buckeyes

Invested

$229.22

Value

$236.83

PnL

+$7.61

Record

52%

190-176 (366)

Pan9X

Ohio State Buckeyes

Invested

$129.61

Value

$114.54

PnL

+$3.49

Record

48%

174-190 (364)

nigiri99<$100

Ohio State Buckeyes

Invested

$81.06

Value

$82.67

PnL

+$1.61

Record

42%

28-38 (66)

xtxpleasecallme<$100

Ohio State Buckeyes

Invested

$30.98

Value

$31.61

PnL

+$0.63

Record

69%

48-22 (70)

hi774cCTR<$100

Marshall Thundering Herd

Invested

$37.11

Value

$7.07

PnL

-$30.04

Record

9-250 (259)

forecastication4CTR<$100

Marshall Thundering Herd

Invested

$22.95

Value

$0.13

PnL

+$0.14

Record

4-79 (83)

Research grade

AvoidOhio State Buckeyes at 99%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

Ohio State Buckeyes

7 of 9 top traders (78%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-2 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 81%

Freshness

Fresh

4h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

78% of non-arb traders are on Ohio State Buckeyes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 81% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrOhio State Buckeyes 67% · 6

Aligned

Top 1000Ohio State Buckeyes 78% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Ohio State Buckeyes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.