Loyola Chicago Ramblers vs. Air Force Falcons

3 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Loyola Chicago Ramblers (38%) · Loyola Chicago Ramblers at 54¢ · $3K held · ended Nov 11

Loyola Chicago Ramblers54¢Air Force Falcons46¢Ended Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Loyola Chicago Ramblers

Consensus Traders

Loyola Chicago Ramblers 38%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$3.0K

Combined PnL

-$77.63

Smart Money Entry

65.4¢ → 53.5¢

-18% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

AvoidLoyola Chicago Ramblers at 54%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Loyola Chicago Ramblers

3 of 8 top traders (38%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Loyola Chicago Ramblers54%

Air Force Falcons47%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Loyola Chicago Ramblers3 traders

Total Value$766.67

Total Shares1,409

Combined PnL-$161.43

Air Force Falcons5 traders

Total Value$300.62

Total Shares611

Combined PnL+$83.81

Loyola Chicago Ramblers — 38%Air Force Falcons — 62%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

38% of non-arb traders are on Loyola Chicago Ramblers. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrAir Force Falcons 50% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Air Force Falcons 63% · 8

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872ARB<$100	Loyola Chicago Ramblersavg 76.4¢	$1.2K	$1.0K	-$205.1	55% 715-580 (1295)
└ Loyola Chicago Ramblers leg	Loyola Chicago Ramblersavg 76.4¢	$808.09	$571.2	-$236.89
└ Air Force Falcons leg	Air Force Falconsavg 42.6¢	$401.22	$433.01	+$31.79
FL Flaznorp	Loyola Chicago Ramblersavg 65.2¢	$908.46	$745.21	-$163.25	51% 1857-1809 (3666)
HO HomeRunHazardARB<$100	Loyola Chicago Ramblersavg 80¢	$695.24	$618.85	-$76.39	57% 3221-2431 (5652)
└ Loyola Chicago Ramblers leg	Loyola Chicago Ramblersavg 80¢	$621.6	$419.58	-$202.02
└ Air Force Falcons leg	Air Force Falconsavg 17¢	$73.64	$199.27	+$125.63
RN1ARB<$100	Air Force Falconsavg 37.1¢	$341.54	$353.59	+$12.05	57% 4039-3053 (7092)
└ Air Force Falcons leg	Air Force Falconsavg 37.1¢	$180.07	$223.45	+$43.38
└ Loyola Chicago Ramblers leg	Loyola Chicago Ramblersavg 67¢	$161.47	$130.14	-$31.33
TH thirdt1meCTR	Air Force Falconsavg 36.4¢	$96.33	$110.57	+$14.24	42% 117-161 (278)
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	Air Force Falconsavg 31¢	$54.81	$81.42	+$26.61	48% 1398-1531 (2929)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100	Air Force Falconsavg 29¢	$51.06	$80.99	+$29.93	53% 1830-1635 (3465)
CI cigarettesCTR<$100	Air Force Falconsavg 25¢	$12.5	$23	+$10.5	53% 5757-5140 (10897)
PA Pan9X<$100	Loyola Chicago Ramblersavg 82¢	$15.54	$18.76	+$3.22	49% 677-717 (1394)
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eCTR<$100	Air Force Falconsavg 21.2¢	$2.12	$4.65	+$2.53	60% 2586-1691 (4277)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	Loyola Chicago Ramblersavg 82¢	$4.1	$2.7	-$1.4	33% 307-625 (932)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872ARB<$100

Loyola Chicago Ramblers

Invested

$1,209.31

Value

$1.0K

PnL

-$205.1

Record

55%

715-580 (1295)

Both legs:

Loyola Chicago Ramblers$808.0976.4¢-$236.89

Air Force Falcons$401.2242.6¢+$31.79

Flaznorp

Loyola Chicago Ramblers

Invested

$908.46

Value

$745.21

PnL

-$163.25

Record

51%

1857-1809 (3666)

HomeRunHazardARB<$100

Loyola Chicago Ramblers

Invested

$695.24

Value

$618.85

PnL

-$76.39

Record

57%

3221-2431 (5652)

Both legs:

Loyola Chicago Ramblers$621.680¢-$202.02

Air Force Falcons$73.6417¢+$125.63

RN1ARB<$100

Air Force Falcons

Invested

$341.54

Value

$353.59

PnL

+$12.05

Record

57%

4039-3053 (7092)

Both legs:

Air Force Falcons$180.0737.1¢+$43.38

Loyola Chicago Ramblers$161.4767¢-$31.33

thirdt1meCTR

Air Force Falcons

Invested

$96.33

Value

$110.57

PnL

+$14.24

Record

42%

117-161 (278)

38791873984189CTR<$100

Air Force Falcons

Invested

$54.81

Value

$81.42

PnL

+$26.61

Record

48%

1398-1531 (2929)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100

Air Force Falcons

Invested

$51.06

Value

$80.99

PnL

+$29.93

Record

53%

1830-1635 (3465)

cigarettesCTR<$100

Air Force Falcons

Invested

$12.5

Value

$23

PnL

+$10.5

Record

53%

5757-5140 (10897)

Pan9X<$100

Loyola Chicago Ramblers

Invested

$15.54

Value

$18.76

PnL

+$3.22

Record

49%

677-717 (1394)

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eCTR<$100

Air Force Falcons

Invested

$2.12

Value

$4.65

PnL

+$2.53

Record

60%

2586-1691 (4277)

ameisgoat11<$100

Loyola Chicago Ramblers

Invested

$4.1

Value

$2.7

PnL

-$1.4

Record

33%

307-625 (932)

Research grade

AvoidLoyola Chicago Ramblers at 54%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Loyola Chicago Ramblers

3 of 8 top traders (38%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

38% of non-arb traders are on Loyola Chicago Ramblers. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrAir Force Falcons 50% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Air Force Falcons 63% · 8

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Loyola Chicago Ramblers wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance55.7%

53.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$79.40

Max Loss

-$100.00

179.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.