Eastern Washington Eagles vs. Oregon Ducks
6 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Oregon Ducks (67%) · Oregon Ducks at 92¢ · $3K held · ended Nov 6
⚠️
Avoid
Oregon Ducks
9
Oregon Ducks 67%
$2.7K
$16.53
91.9¢ → 92¢
+0% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
AvoidOregon Ducks at 92%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 9 top traders (67%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HO HomeRunHazard | Oregon Ducksavg 92¢ | $1.5K | $1.5K | +$16.17 | 54% 18312-15410 (33722) |
 RN1 | Oregon Ducksavg 91.4¢ | $633.22 | $630.88 | -$2.34 | 53% 61818-54099 (115917) |
38 38791873984189 | Oregon Ducksavg 92.1¢ | $373.74 | $332.76 | -$2.76 | 48% 61956-66813 (128769) |
PA Pan9X<$100 | Oregon Ducksavg 92.3¢ | $89.58 | $78.12 | -$1.46 | 54% 10107-8484 (18591) |
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100 | Eastern Washington Eaglesavg 8¢ | $62.61 | $58.7 | -$3.91 | 51% 26515-25136 (51651) |
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR<$100 | Eastern Washington Eaglesavg 8¢ | $46.6 | $53.7 | +$7.1 | 56% 8420-6556 (14976) |
HI hi774cCTR<$100 | Eastern Washington Eaglesavg 6¢ | $22.19 | $25.89 | +$3.7 | 46% 5257-6102 (11359) |
AM ameisgoat11<$100 | Oregon Ducksavg 93¢ | $9.3 | $9.3 | +$0 | 52% 8861-8048 (16909) |
0X 0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465<$100 | Oregon Ducksavg 92.4¢ | $1.37 | $1.4 | +$0.03 | 53% 6294-5580 (11874) |
Invested
$1,489.79
Value
$1.5K
PnL
+$16.17
Record
54%
18312-15410 (33722)
RN1Invested
$633.22
Value
$630.88
PnL
-$2.34
Record
53%
61818-54099 (115917)
Invested
$373.74
Value
$332.76
PnL
-$2.76
Record
48%
61956-66813 (128769)
Invested
$89.58
Value
$78.12
PnL
-$1.46
Record
54%
10107-8484 (18591)
Invested
$62.61
Value
$58.7
PnL
-$3.91
Record
51%
26515-25136 (51651)
Invested
$46.6
Value
$53.7
PnL
+$7.1
Record
56%
8420-6556 (14976)
Invested
$22.19
Value
$25.89
PnL
+$3.7
Record
46%
5257-6102 (11359)
Invested
$9.3
Value
$9.3
PnL
+$0
Record
52%
8861-8048 (16909)
Invested
$1.37
Value
$1.4
PnL
+$0.03
Record
53%
6294-5580 (11874)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
92.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.
Market Info
Traders in this Market
HomeRunHazard
Oregon Ducks — $1.5K
RN1
Oregon Ducks — $630.88
38791873984189
Oregon Ducks — $332.76
Pan9X
Oregon Ducks — $78.12
Flaznorp
CTREastern Washington Eagles — $58.7
0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872
CTREastern Washington Eagles — $53.7
hi774c
CTREastern Washington Eagles — $25.89
ameisgoat11
Oregon Ducks — $9.3
0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465
Oregon Ducks — $1.4