Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (52%). 8 of 13 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

VfB Stuttgart vs. SV Werder Bremen: O/U 1.5

8 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold Under (62%) · Under at 49¢ · $42K held · ended Nov 7

Over52¢Under48¢Ended Sat, Nov 7, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 62%

6 arb excluded

Total Value

$41.7K

Combined PnL

$-3.4K

Smart Money Entry

69¢ → 48.5¢

-30% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 49%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

8 of 13 top traders (62%)Underdog side (market favors Over 52%)6 arbitrage traders dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over52%

Under49%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over5 traders

Total Value$9.6K

Total Shares18,359

Combined PnL+$721.66

Under8 traders

Total Value$10.3K

Total Shares21,018

Combined PnL$-4.1K

Over — 38%Under — 62%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Underavg 47.5¢	$11.6K	$13.2K	+$1.6K	51% 27272-25818 (53090)
└ Under leg	Underavg 47.5¢	$7.6K	$7.8K	+$163.95
└ Over leg	Overavg 38¢	$4.0K	$5.4K	+$1.4K
KK Kkunn	Overavg 55.8¢	$7.7K	$7.1K	-$587.05	42% 254-346 (600)
DA dashattackerCTR	Underavg 86¢	$10.4K	$5.9K	$-4.5K	73% 3120-1177 (4297)
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100	Underavg 33.9¢	$2.9K	$4.0K	+$1.2K	50% 29172-29037 (58209)
└ Under leg	Underavg 33.9¢	$1.6K	$2.4K	+$711.14
└ Over leg	Overavg 37.3¢	$1.2K	$1.7K	+$467.38
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872ARB<$100	Underavg 48.1¢	$1.9K	$3.5K	+$1.6K	56% 8738-6795 (15533)
└ Over leg	Overavg 18.4¢	$878.68	$2.5K	+$1.6K
└ Under leg	Underavg 48.1¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	+$8.61
LI LimousinCTR	Underavg 49.9¢	$2.5K	$2.5K	-$34.64	50% 1850-1866 (3716)
RN1	Overavg 20.7¢	$956.26	$2.1K	+$1.2K	53% 63014-55227 (118241)
SN SnakeBallCTR	Underavg 44.3¢	$1.3K	$1.5K	+$127.19	51% 38648-37820 (76468)
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Overavg 51.2¢	$741.42	$555.51	+$5.07	48% 63191-68207 (131398)
└ Over leg	Overavg 51.2¢	$398.23	$400.48	-$74.73
└ Under leg	Underavg 34.2¢	$109.4	$155.03	+$79.8
AN Anon455ARB<$100	Overavg 50.7¢	$373.32	$386.25	+$12.94	55% 3814-3145 (6959)
└ Over leg	Overavg 50.7¢	$261.07	$265	+$3.94
└ Under leg	Underavg 44.9¢	$112.25	$121.25	+$9
VE VenusianCTR	Underavg 16¢	$95.38	$279.23	+$183.84	49% 1844-1936 (3780)
LU LuckyLoo	Overavg 7.1¢	$24.36	$176.69	+$152.33	49% 15008-15929 (30937)
MA MadridTimeARB<$100	Overavg 16.7¢	$39.97	$163.98	+$124.01	48% 1776-1912 (3688)
└ Over leg	Overavg 16.7¢	$26.95	$83.37	+$56.42
└ Under leg	Underavg 7.8¢	$13.01	$80.61	+$67.6
PA Pan9X	Overavg 67.6¢	$551.26	$163.07	-$42.65	54% 10485-8797 (19282)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Underavg 22.3¢	$27.43	$70.42	+$42.99	49% 1800-1902 (3702)
PA pauleta23CTR<$100	Underavg 44.7¢	$49.44	$53.65	+$4.21	65% 24597-12971 (37568)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100	Underavg 72.2¢	$42.49	$28.55	-$13.93	46% 1795-2102 (3897)
MA maxiplayerCTR	Underavg 88.2¢	$2.2K	$21.21	+$102.46	76% 771-247 (1018)
dips.<$100	Overavg 34.4¢	$27.79	$9.79	+$6.65	47% 11040-12658 (23698)

FlaznorpARB<$100

Under

Invested

$11,595.57

Value

$13.2K

PnL

+$1.6K

Record

51%

27272-25818 (53090)

Both legs:

Under$7,609.3647.5¢+$163.95

Over$3,986.2138¢+$1.4K

Kkunn

Over

Invested

$7,676.48

Value

$7.1K

PnL

-$587.05

Record

42%

254-346 (600)

dashattackerCTR

Under

Invested

$10,432.15

Value

$5.9K

PnL

$-4.5K

Record

73%

3120-1177 (4297)

GoalLineGhostARB<$100

Under

Invested

$2,868.71

Value

$4.0K

PnL

+$1.2K

Record

50%

29172-29037 (58209)

Both legs:

Under$1,645.5933.9¢+$711.14

Over$1,223.1237.3¢+$467.38

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872ARB<$100

Under

Invested

$1,933.75

Value

$3.5K

PnL

+$1.6K

Record

56%

8738-6795 (15533)

Both legs:

Over$878.6818.4¢+$1.6K

Under$1,055.0648.1¢+$8.61

LimousinCTR

Under

Invested

$2,501.12

Value

$2.5K

PnL

-$34.64

Record

50%

1850-1866 (3716)

RN1

Over

Invested

$956.26

Value

$2.1K

PnL

+$1.2K

Record

53%

63014-55227 (118241)

SnakeBallCTR

Under

Invested

$1,343.85

Value

$1.5K

PnL

+$127.19

Record

51%

38648-37820 (76468)

38791873984189ARB<$100

Over

Invested

$741.42

Value

$555.51

PnL

+$5.07

Record

48%

63191-68207 (131398)

Both legs:

Over$398.2351.2¢-$74.73

Under$109.434.2¢+$79.8

Anon455ARB<$100

Over

Invested

$373.32

Value

$386.25

PnL

+$12.94

Record

55%

3814-3145 (6959)

Both legs:

Over$261.0750.7¢+$3.94

Under$112.2544.9¢+$9

VenusianCTR

Under

Invested

$95.38

Value

$279.23

PnL

+$183.84

Record

49%

1844-1936 (3780)

LuckyLoo

Over

Invested

$24.36

Value

$176.69

PnL

+$152.33

Record

49%

15008-15929 (30937)

MadridTimeARB<$100

Over

Invested

$39.97

Value

$163.98

PnL

+$124.01

Record

48%

1776-1912 (3688)

Both legs:

Over$26.9516.7¢+$56.42

Under$13.017.8¢+$67.6

Pan9X

Over

Invested

$551.26

Value

$163.07

PnL

-$42.65

Record

54%

10485-8797 (19282)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$27.43

Value

$70.42

PnL

+$42.99

Record

49%

1800-1902 (3702)

pauleta23CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$49.44

Value

$53.65

PnL

+$4.21

Record

65%

24597-12971 (37568)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$42.49

Value

$28.55

PnL

-$13.93

Record

46%

1795-2102 (3897)

maxiplayerCTR

Under

Invested

$2,207.23

Value

$21.21

PnL

+$102.46

Record

76%

771-247 (1018)

dips.<$100

Over

Invested

$27.79

Value

$9.79

PnL

+$6.65

Record

47%

11040-12658 (23698)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 49%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Under

8 of 13 top traders (62%)Underdog side (market favors Over 52%)6 arbitrage traders dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance50.7%

48.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$97.04

Max Loss

-$100.00

197.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.