Will VfB Stuttgart vs. SV Werder Bremen end in a draw?

11 of 17 top Polymarket traders hold No (65%) · No at 79¢ · $22K held · ended Nov 7

Yes22¢No78¢Ended Sat, Nov 7, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 65%

5 arb excluded

Total Value

$22.2K

Combined PnL

-$616.92

Smart Money Entry

85.3¢ → 78.5¢

-8% since entry · 11 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 79%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

11 of 17 top traders (65%)5 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes22%

No79%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No11 traders

Total Value$12.7K

Total Shares14,569

Combined PnL-$646.26

Yes6 traders

Total Value$132.76

Total Shares587

Combined PnL+$29.34

No — 65%Yes — 35%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Noavg 85.4¢	$7.0K	$7.2K	+$273.88	51% 27272-25818 (53090)
└ No leg	Noavg 85.4¢	$5.3K	$4.9K	-$427.52
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 15.1¢	$1.6K	$2.3K	+$701.4
oieshfn345	Noavg 85¢	$5.8K	$5.7K	-$127.82	58% 2117-1562 (3679)
GO GoalLineGhost	Noavg 86.9¢	$4.2K	$3.8K	-$360.08	50% 29172-29037 (58209)
AN Anon455	Noavg 80.1¢	$1.5K	$1.5K	-$30.87	55% 3814-3145 (6959)
LI LimousinARB<$100	Noavg 79.5¢	$692.8	$899.78	+$206.98	50% 1850-1866 (3716)
└ No leg	Noavg 79.5¢	$555.68	$548.67	-$7.02
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 8.4¢	$137.12	$351.12	+$214
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100	Noavg 84.5¢	$584.42	$589.59	+$5.16	53% 14954-13478 (28432)
└ No leg	Noavg 84.5¢	$458.71	$426.06	-$32.66
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 16.5¢	$125.71	$163.53	+$37.82
38 38791873984189	Noavg 92.9¢	$694.47	$564.1	-$76.8	48% 63191-68207 (131398)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh	Noavg 83.8¢	$352.32	$339.63	-$12.69	46% 1795-2102 (3897)
VE VenusianARB<$100	Noavg 96.8¢	$383.71	$339.39	-$44.32	49% 1844-1936 (3780)
└ No leg	Noavg 96.8¢	$327.27	$265.5	-$61.77
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 16.4¢	$56.44	$73.89	+$17.45
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872ARB<$100	Noavg 93¢	$242.82	$316.41	+$73.6	56% 8738-6795 (15533)
└ No leg	Noavg 93¢	$208.91	$176.34	-$32.57
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 5.2¢	$33.91	$140.08	+$106.17
PA Pan9X	Noavg 84.6¢	$701.85	$269.49	+$4.88	54% 10485-8797 (19282)
VeryLucky888	Noavg 79¢	$188.1	$186.9	-$1.19	58% 47904-34520 (82424)
AV averagejoetraders	Noavg 88¢	$176	$157	-$19	57% 676-519 (1195)
OX oxe78sh4w98	Noavg 89¢	$172.12	$151.82	-$20.3	53% 626-550 (1176)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Yesavg 16.7¢	$79.98	$99.55	+$19.57	49% 1800-1902 (3702)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	Yesavg 15¢	$13.44	$19.26	+$5.82	51% 38648-37820 (76468)
OM omnibus-076daa<$100	Noavg 82¢	$16.38	$15.68	-$0.7	50% 21821-22062 (43883)
XT xtxpleasecallme<$100	Noavg 95.4¢	$9.56	$7.87	-$1.69	33% 20011-40834 (60845)
GA GaditimaCTR<$100	Yesavg 15.8¢	$3.79	$5.16	+$1.37	47% 7503-8319 (15822)
0X 0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$1.46	$3.47	+$2	64% 5377-2997 (8374)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Yesavg 18.7¢	$3	$3.44	+$0.44	48% 1776-1912 (3688)
CA CannaeCTR<$100	Yesavg 20¢	$1.75	$1.88	+$0.13	53% 17085-15197 (32282)

FlaznorpARB<$100

Invested

$6,966.43

Value

$7.2K

PnL

+$273.88

Record

51%

27272-25818 (53090)

Both legs:

No$5,321.8985.4¢-$427.52

Yes$1,644.5415.1¢+$701.4

oieshfn345

Invested

$5,798.61

Value

$5.7K

PnL

-$127.82

Record

58%

2117-1562 (3679)

GoalLineGhost

Invested

$4,180.46

Value

$3.8K

PnL

-$360.08

Record

50%

29172-29037 (58209)

Anon455

Invested

$1,505.76

Value

$1.5K

PnL

-$30.87

Record

55%

3814-3145 (6959)

LimousinARB<$100

Invested

$692.8

Value

$899.78

PnL

+$206.98

Record

50%

1850-1866 (3716)

Both legs:

No$555.6879.5¢-$7.02

Yes$137.128.4¢+$214

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100

Invested

$584.42

Value

$589.59

PnL

+$5.16

Record

53%

14954-13478 (28432)

Both legs:

No$458.7184.5¢-$32.66

Yes$125.7116.5¢+$37.82

38791873984189

Invested

$694.47

Value

$564.1

PnL

-$76.8

Record

48%

63191-68207 (131398)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh

Invested

$352.32

Value

$339.63

PnL

-$12.69

Record

46%

1795-2102 (3897)

VenusianARB<$100

Invested

$383.71

Value

$339.39

PnL

-$44.32

Record

49%

1844-1936 (3780)

Both legs:

No$327.2796.8¢-$61.77

Yes$56.4416.4¢+$17.45

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872ARB<$100

Invested

$242.82

Value

$316.41

PnL

+$73.6

Record

56%

8738-6795 (15533)

Both legs:

No$208.9193¢-$32.57

Yes$33.915.2¢+$106.17

Pan9X

Invested

$701.85

Value

$269.49

PnL

+$4.88

Record

54%

10485-8797 (19282)

VeryLucky888

Invested

$188.1

Value

$186.9

PnL

-$1.19

Record

58%

47904-34520 (82424)

averagejoetraders

Invested

$176

Value

$157

PnL

-$19

Record

57%

676-519 (1195)

oxe78sh4w98

Invested

$172.12

Value

$151.82

PnL

-$20.3

Record

53%

626-550 (1176)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$79.98

Value

$99.55

PnL

+$19.57

Record

49%

1800-1902 (3702)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$13.44

Value

$19.26

PnL

+$5.82

Record

51%

38648-37820 (76468)

omnibus-076daa<$100

Invested

$16.38

Value

$15.68

PnL

-$0.7

Record

50%

21821-22062 (43883)

xtxpleasecallme<$100

Invested

$9.56

Value

$7.87

PnL

-$1.69

Record

33%

20011-40834 (60845)

GaditimaCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.79

Value

$5.16

PnL

+$1.37

Record

47%

7503-8319 (15822)

0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.46

Value

$3.47

PnL

+$2

Record

64%

5377-2997 (8374)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

Value

$3.44

PnL

+$0.44

Record

48%

1776-1912 (3688)

CannaeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.75

Value

$1.88

PnL

+$0.13

Record

53%

17085-15197 (32282)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 79%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

11 of 17 top traders (65%)5 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance80.3%

78.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$24.51

Max Loss

-$100.00

124.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.