Will SC Paderborn 07 vs. Eintracht Frankfurt end in a draw?

13 of 18 top Polymarket traders hold No (72%) · No at 74¢ · $28K held · ended Nov 7

Yes26¢No74¢Ended Sat, Nov 7, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 72%

11 arb excluded

Total Value

$27.5K

Combined PnL

$1.6K

Smart Money Entry

59.2¢ → 74¢

+25% since entry · 13 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 74%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

13 of 18 top traders (72%)11 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes26%

No74%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No13 traders

Total Value$13.8K

Total Shares17,544

Combined PnL+$3.2K

Yes5 traders

Total Value$1.2K

Total Shares4,636

Combined PnL$-1.6K

No — 72%Yes — 28%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Noavg 88.1¢	$6.0K	$5.6K	-$450.95	51% 27272-25818 (53090)
└ No leg	Noavg 88.1¢	$4.1K	$3.4K	-$649.09
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 23.6¢	$2.0K	$2.2K	+$198.14
oieshfn345	Noavg 81.6¢	$5.5K	$5.4K	-$176.17	58% 2117-1562 (3679)
GO GoalLineGhost	Noavg 75.9¢	$3.5K	$3.5K	-$89.04	50% 29172-29037 (58209)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872	Noavg 14.6¢	$556.74	$2.8K	+$2.3K	56% 8738-6795 (15533)
AN Anon455ARB<$100	Noavg 85.4¢	$2.3K	$2.2K	-$101.24	55% 3814-3145 (6959)
└ No leg	Noavg 85.4¢	$1.5K	$1.3K	-$207.09
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 22.8¢	$747.01	$852.87	+$105.85
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100	Noavg 74.1¢	$1.5K	$1.7K	+$124.06	53% 14954-13478 (28432)
└ No leg	Noavg 74.1¢	$1.2K	$1.2K	-$2.4
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 18.8¢	$327.51	$453.98	+$126.46
38 38791873984189	Noavg 52.3¢	$834.16	$999.72	+$416.32	48% 63191-68207 (131398)
CI cigarettes	Noavg 4¢	$33.98	$628.65	+$594.66	50% 59994-58808 (118802)
RA rabbitfoot1CTR	Yesavg 95.5¢	$2.2K	$606.98	$-1.6K	54% 1244-1053 (2297)
LI LimousinARB<$100	Yesavg 41.6¢	$797.49	$604.27	-$193.22	50% 1850-1866 (3716)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 41.6¢	$625.02	$391.07	-$233.95
└ No leg	Noavg 59.9¢	$172.47	$213.2	+$40.73
LI LightParadoxARB<$100	Noavg 88.9¢	$782.52	$603.61	-$178.91	49% 1800-1902 (3702)
└ No leg	Noavg 88.9¢	$538.27	$447.97	-$90.29
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 40.8¢	$244.25	$155.63	-$88.62
VE VenusianARB<$100	Noavg 88.5¢	$547.08	$444.15	-$102.93	49% 1844-1936 (3780)
└ No leg	Noavg 88.5¢	$318.7	$266.4	-$52.3
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 33.4¢	$228.38	$177.75	-$50.63
NM NM-PARB<$100	Noavg 74.1¢	$423.61	$423.21	-$0.4	64% 10182-5720 (15902)
└ No leg	Noavg 74.1¢	$220.73	$220.33	-$0.4
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 25¢	$202.89	$202.89	+$0
MA MadridTimeARB<$100	Noavg 77.1¢	$442.46	$377.86	-$64.6	48% 1776-1912 (3688)
└ No leg	Noavg 77.1¢	$230.42	$221.04	-$9.38
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 35.2¢	$212.04	$156.82	-$55.22
PT PT-S7ARB<$100	Noavg 58.7¢	$500.19	$318.08	+$216.8	49% 3284-3450 (6734)
└ No leg	Noavg 58.7¢	$194.37	$245.03	+$171.22
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 14.3¢	$40.19	$73.05	+$45.58
VeryLucky888CTR	Yesavg 24¢	$288.74	$299.51	+$17.97	58% 47503-34297 (81800)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR	Yesavg 25.2¢	$261.65	$270.42	+$8.77	46% 1795-2102 (3897)
GC GC-PARB<$100	Yesavg 25¢	$840.09	$269.23	+$4.2	64% 10179-5769 (15948)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 25¢	$181.96	$185.6	+$3.64
└ No leg	Noavg 74¢	$83.07	$83.63	+$0.56
PA Pan9X	Noavg 56.9¢	$500.45	$244.34	+$180.13	54% 10485-8797 (19282)
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e	Noavg 88.1¢	$165.6	$139.12	-$26.48	58% 3248-2345 (5593)
OM omnibus-076daaARB<$100	Noavg 73.5¢	$37.13	$54.05	+$16.92	50% 21821-22062 (43883)
└ No leg	Noavg 73.5¢	$29.7	$29.91	+$0.2
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 8¢	$7.43	$24.15	+$16.72
0X 0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0<$100	Noavg 63.1¢	$37.2	$44.38	+$7.18	64% 5377-2997 (8374)
dips.<$100	Noavg 90.5¢	$62.41	$23.49	-$6.4	47% 11040-12658 (23698)
SP spyGoodLuck77CTR<$100	Yesavg 69.9¢	$47.65	$23.38	-$24.27	62% 1928-1173 (3101)
AV averagejoetraders<$100	Noavg 55¢	$14.85	$19.98	+$5.13	57% 676-519 (1195)

FlaznorpARB<$100

Invested

$6,026.08

Value

$5.6K

PnL

-$450.95

Record

51%

27272-25818 (53090)

Both legs:

No$4,055.7788.1¢-$649.09

Yes$1,970.3123.6¢+$198.14

oieshfn345

Invested

$5,538.21

Value

$5.4K

PnL

-$176.17

Record

58%

2117-1562 (3679)

GoalLineGhost

Invested

$3,544.64

Value

$3.5K

PnL

-$89.04

Record

50%

29172-29037 (58209)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872

Invested

$556.74

Value

$2.8K

PnL

+$2.3K

Record

56%

8738-6795 (15533)

Anon455ARB<$100

Invested

$2,296.41

Value

$2.2K

PnL

-$101.24

Record

55%

3814-3145 (6959)

Both legs:

No$1,549.485.4¢-$207.09

Yes$747.0122.8¢+$105.85

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100

Invested

$1,536.08

Value

$1.7K

PnL

+$124.06

Record

53%

14954-13478 (28432)

Both legs:

No$1,208.5774.1¢-$2.4

Yes$327.5118.8¢+$126.46

38791873984189

Invested

$834.16

Value

$999.72

PnL

+$416.32

Record

48%

63191-68207 (131398)

cigarettes

Invested

$33.98

Value

$628.65

PnL

+$594.66

Record

50%

59994-58808 (118802)

rabbitfoot1CTR

Yes

Invested

$2,230.14

Value

$606.98

PnL

$-1.6K

Record

54%

1244-1053 (2297)

LimousinARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$797.49

Value

$604.27

PnL

-$193.22

Record

50%

1850-1866 (3716)

Both legs:

Yes$625.0241.6¢-$233.95

No$172.4759.9¢+$40.73

LightParadoxARB<$100

Invested

$782.52

Value

$603.61

PnL

-$178.91

Record

49%

1800-1902 (3702)

Both legs:

No$538.2788.9¢-$90.29

Yes$244.2540.8¢-$88.62

VenusianARB<$100

Invested

$547.08

Value

$444.15

PnL

-$102.93

Record

49%

1844-1936 (3780)

Both legs:

No$318.788.5¢-$52.3

Yes$228.3833.4¢-$50.63

NM-PARB<$100

Invested

$423.61

Value

$423.21

PnL

-$0.4

Record

64%

10182-5720 (15902)

Both legs:

No$220.7374.1¢-$0.4

Yes$202.8925¢+$0

MadridTimeARB<$100

Invested

$442.46

Value

$377.86

PnL

-$64.6

Record

48%

1776-1912 (3688)

Both legs:

No$230.4277.1¢-$9.38

Yes$212.0435.2¢-$55.22

PT-S7ARB<$100

Invested

$500.19

Value

$318.08

PnL

+$216.8

Record

49%

3284-3450 (6734)

Both legs:

No$194.3758.7¢+$171.22

Yes$40.1914.3¢+$45.58

VeryLucky888CTR

Yes

Invested

$288.74

Value

$299.51

PnL

+$17.97

Record

58%

47503-34297 (81800)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR

Yes

Invested

$261.65

Value

$270.42

PnL

+$8.77

Record

46%

1795-2102 (3897)

GC-PARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$840.09

Value

$269.23

PnL

+$4.2

Record

64%

10179-5769 (15948)

Both legs:

Yes$181.9625¢+$3.64

No$83.0774¢+$0.56

Pan9X

Invested

$500.45

Value

$244.34

PnL

+$180.13

Record

54%

10485-8797 (19282)

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e

Invested

$165.6

Value

$139.12

PnL

-$26.48

Record

58%

3248-2345 (5593)

omnibus-076daaARB<$100

Invested

$37.13

Value

$54.05

PnL

+$16.92

Record

50%

21821-22062 (43883)

Both legs:

No$29.773.5¢+$0.2

Yes$7.438¢+$16.72

0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0<$100

Invested

$37.2

Value

$44.38

PnL

+$7.18

Record

64%

5377-2997 (8374)

dips.<$100

Invested

$62.41

Value

$23.49

PnL

-$6.4

Record

47%

11040-12658 (23698)

spyGoodLuck77CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$47.65

Value

$23.38

PnL

-$24.27

Record

62%

1928-1173 (3101)

averagejoetraders<$100

Invested

$14.85

Value

$19.98

PnL

+$5.13

Record

57%

676-519 (1195)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 74%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

13 of 18 top traders (72%)11 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance75.9%

74.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$31.69

Max Loss

-$100.00

131.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.