1. FSV Mainz 05 vs. FC Bayern München: O/U 3.5

8 of 23 top Polymarket traders hold Over (35%) · Over at 60¢ · $81K held · ended Nov 7

Over60¢Under40¢Ended Sat, Nov 7, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 35%

4 arb excluded

Total Value

$81.3K

Combined PnL

-$660.74

Smart Money Entry

60.2¢ → 60¢

+0% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 60%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

8 of 23 top traders (35%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed15 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over60%

Under40%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over8 traders

Total Value$41.4K

Total Shares68,964

Combined PnL-$103.05

Under15 traders

Total Value$30.5K

Total Shares75,595

Combined PnL-$557.69

Over — 35%Under — 65%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

-29 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 96%

Freshness

Mature

16h old

Flip Quality

Watch

2 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

38% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 96% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleOver 67% · 3

Aligned

sharpUnder 100% · 2

Diverging

ctrOver 50% · 12

Aligned

Top 1000Under 63% · 16

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FE ferrariChampions2026	Overavg 60.6¢	$23.3K	$23.1K	-$230.89	42% 8168-11360 (19528)
KY Kyn008CTR	Underavg 40.3¢	$18.6K	$18.5K	-$123.17	49% 299-312 (611)
DA DaBossHogg	Overavg 60¢	$10.5K	$10.5K	-$0	52% 234-219 (453)
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100	Underavg 42¢	$6.8K	$8.2K	-$403.93	50% 29172-29037 (58209)
└ Under leg	Underavg 42¢	$5.7K	$5.5K	-$279.71
└ Over leg	Overavg 58¢	$2.7K	$2.7K	-$124.23
FL FlaznorpCTR	Underavg 40.7¢	$7.1K	$7.0K	-$95.27	51% 27272-25818 (53090)
MR MrBently	Overavg 59.1¢	$6.0K	$6.1K	+$88.39	52% 617-559 (1176)
VE VenusianCTR	Underavg 41.8¢	$1.5K	$1.4K	-$62.86	49% 1844-1936 (3780)
nigiri99	Overavg 58.3¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	+$30.47	46% 8770-10464 (19234)
RN1CTR	Underavg 50¢	$1.1K	$905.15	-$226.5	53% 63014-55227 (118241)
VeryLucky888ARB<$100	Overavg 58.2¢	$824.11	$807.59	+$15.16	58% 47904-34520 (82424)
└ Over leg	Overavg 58.2¢	$556.46	$573.19	+$16.11
└ Under leg	Underavg 40.2¢	$235.33	$234.4	-$0.95
MU Multicoloured-SerfCTR	Underavg 39¢	$736	$754.87	+$18.87	48% 405-446 (851)
GC GC-PCTR	Underavg 40.6¢	$1.4K	$546.75	-$1.75	64% 10179-5769 (15948)
NM NM-PCTR	Underavg 40.6¢	$548.5	$540	-$8.5	64% 10182-5720 (15902)
SE sentrio	Overavg 59¢	$481.05	$489.21	+$8.15	50% 26504-26107 (52611)
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Overavg 57.5¢	$533.73	$309.81	+$3.15	48% 63191-68207 (131398)
└ Over leg	Overavg 57.5¢	$192.29	$200.48	+$2.73
└ Under leg	Underavg 41.8¢	$114.17	$109.33	+$0.42
LI LightParadoxCTR	Underavg 45.1¢	$296.27	$262.61	-$33.66	49% 1800-1902 (3702)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR	Underavg 41¢	$246	$240	-$6	51% 2058-1996 (4054)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR	Underavg 43.2¢	$175.21	$162.33	-$12.84	50% 21550-21844 (43394)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Underavg 41¢	$95.91	$93.57	-$2.34	48% 1776-1912 (3688)
PA Pan9XARB<$100	Overavg 57¢	$77.11	$69.78	+$0.87	54% 10485-8797 (19282)
└ Over leg	Overavg 57¢	$43.33	$45.59	+$2.26
└ Under leg	Underavg 42¢	$25.38	$24.19	-$1.38
DA darkumbreon88<$100	Overavg 59¢	$48.91	$49.74	+$0.83	64% 2039-1134 (3173)
ZT ZTMZqClEsjMmwCDWXoGCTR<$100	Underavg 42.2¢	$32.67	$30.96	-$1.71	59% 6954-4900 (11854)
AN Anon455CTR<$100	Underavg 41¢	$20.44	$20.86	+$0.42	55% 3814-3145 (6959)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Underavg 44¢	$22.04	$20.04	-$2	50% 1850-1866 (3716)
OD OddstormCTR<$100	Underavg 43.2¢	$10.8	$10	-$0.38	48% 7449-7982 (15431)

ferrariChampions2026

Over

Invested

$23,348.8

Value

$23.1K

PnL

-$230.89

Record

42%

8168-11360 (19528)

Kyn008CTR

Under

Invested

$18,616.84

Value

$18.5K

PnL

-$123.17

Record

49%

299-312 (611)

DaBossHogg

Over

Invested

$10,525.71

Value

$10.5K

PnL

-$0

Record

52%

234-219 (453)

GoalLineGhostARB<$100

Under

Invested

$6,786.1

Value

$8.2K

PnL

-$403.93

Record

50%

29172-29037 (58209)

Both legs:

Under$5,74742¢-$279.71

Over$2,653.3458¢-$124.23

FlaznorpCTR

Under

Invested

$7,141.79

Value

$7.0K

PnL

-$95.27

Record

51%

27272-25818 (53090)

MrBently

Over

Invested

$5,992.05

Value

$6.1K

PnL

+$88.39

Record

52%

617-559 (1176)

VenusianCTR

Under

Invested

$1,472.45

Value

$1.4K

PnL

-$62.86

Record

49%

1844-1936 (3780)

nigiri99

Over

Invested

$1,076.53

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$30.47

Record

46%

8770-10464 (19234)

RN1CTR

Under

Invested

$1,131.65

Value

$905.15

PnL

-$226.5

Record

53%

63014-55227 (118241)

VeryLucky888ARB<$100

Over

Invested

$824.11

Value

$807.59

PnL

+$15.16

Record

58%

47904-34520 (82424)

Both legs:

Over$556.4658.2¢+$16.11

Under$235.3340.2¢-$0.95

Multicoloured-SerfCTR

Under

Invested

$736

Value

$754.87

PnL

+$18.87

Record

48%

405-446 (851)

GC-PCTR

Under

Invested

$1,350

Value

$546.75

PnL

-$1.75

Record

64%

10179-5769 (15948)

NM-PCTR

Under

Invested

$548.5

Value

$540

PnL

-$8.5

Record

64%

10182-5720 (15902)

sentrio

Over

Invested

$481.05

Value

$489.21

PnL

+$8.15

Record

50%

26504-26107 (52611)

38791873984189ARB<$100

Over

Invested

$533.73

Value

$309.81

PnL

+$3.15

Record

48%

63191-68207 (131398)

Both legs:

Over$192.2957.5¢+$2.73

Under$114.1741.8¢+$0.42

LightParadoxCTR

Under

Invested

$296.27

Value

$262.61

PnL

-$33.66

Record

49%

1800-1902 (3702)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR

Under

Invested

$246

Value

$240

PnL

-$6

Record

51%

2058-1996 (4054)

omnibus-076daaCTR

Under

Invested

$175.21

Value

$162.33

PnL

-$12.84

Record

50%

21550-21844 (43394)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$95.91

Value

$93.57

PnL

-$2.34

Record

48%

1776-1912 (3688)

Pan9XARB<$100

Over

Invested

$77.11

Value

$69.78

PnL

+$0.87

Record

54%

10485-8797 (19282)

Both legs:

Invested

$48.91

Value

$49.74

PnL

+$0.83

Record

64%

2039-1134 (3173)

ZTMZqClEsjMmwCDWXoGCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$32.67

Value

$30.96

PnL

-$1.71

Record

59%

6954-4900 (11854)

Anon455CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$20.44

Value

$20.86

PnL

+$0.42

Record

55%

3814-3145 (6959)

LimousinCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$22.04

Value

$20.04

PnL

-$2

Record

50%

1850-1866 (3716)

OddstormCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$10.8

Value

$10

PnL

-$0.38

Record

48%

7449-7982 (15431)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 60%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Over

8 of 23 top traders (35%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed15 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

-29 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 96%

Freshness

Mature

16h old

Flip Quality

Watch

2 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

38% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 96% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleOver 67% · 3

Aligned

sharpUnder 100% · 2

Diverging

ctrOver 50% · 12

Aligned

Top 1000Under 63% · 16

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance62.2%

60.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$60.80

Max Loss

-$100.00

160.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.