Will RB Leipzig vs. FC Augsburg end in a draw?

10 of 16 top Polymarket traders hold No (63%) · No at 89¢ · $15K held · ended Nov 7

Yes12¢No88¢Ended Sat, Nov 7, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 63%

Total Value

$15.0K

Combined PnL

$578.61

Smart Money Entry

80.8¢ → 88.5¢

+9% since entry · 10 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 89%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

10 of 16 top traders (63%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes12%

No89%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No10 traders

Total Value$12.5K

Total Shares14,312

Combined PnL+$902.14

Yes6 traders

Total Value$2.5K

Total Shares14,134

Combined PnL-$323.53

No — 63%Yes — 37%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RN1	Noavg 80.9¢	$10.4K	$11.3K	+$849.42	53% 62321-54560 (116881)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR	Yesavg 19¢	$1.5K	$1.6K	+$114.79	50% 28937-28754 (57691)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Yesavg 19.3¢	$1.0K	$723.9	-$322.85	51% 27227-25781 (53008)
NM NM-P	Noavg 82¢	$271.32	$259.74	-$11.58	64% 10182-5720 (15902)
WA WagerWizard	Noavg 80¢	$207.87	$229.96	+$22.09	84% 15071-2930 (18001)
LI LightParadox	Noavg 81¢	$188.4	$203.52	+$15.12	49% 1800-1900 (3700)
38 38791873984189	Noavg 78¢	$194.08	$188.34	+$12.08	48% 62396-67251 (129647)
PT PT-S7	Noavg 78.5¢	$128	$128.77	+$0.77	49% 3280-3447 (6727)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR	Yesavg 20¢	$200	$125	-$75	56% 8730-6789 (15519)
GC GC-P<$100	Noavg 83¢	$85.44	$90.07	+$4.63	64% 10179-5769 (15948)
PA Pan9X<$100	Noavg 78¢	$89.7	$88.75	+$10.05	54% 10453-8773 (19226)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100	Yesavg 21¢	$74.39	$44.28	-$30.11	46% 1791-2100 (3891)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Yesavg 20¢	$33.05	$20.62	-$12.43	48% 1775-1911 (3686)
SN SnakeBall<$100	Noavg 82¢	$19.6	$18.76	-$0.84	51% 38228-37447 (75675)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100	Yesavg 17¢	$7.81	$9.88	+$2.07	58% 47503-34297 (81800)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2<$100	Noavg 79¢	$3.76	$4.17	+$0.4	52% 14650-13314 (27964)

RN1

Invested

$10,435.94

Value

$11.3K

PnL

+$849.42

Record

53%

62321-54560 (116881)

GoalLineGhostCTR

Yes

Invested

$1,454

Value

$1.6K

PnL

+$114.79

Record

50%

28937-28754 (57691)

FlaznorpCTR

Yes

Invested

$1,046.75

Value

$723.9

PnL

-$322.85

Record

51%

27227-25781 (53008)

NM-P

Invested

$271.32

Value

$259.74

PnL

-$11.58

Record

64%

10182-5720 (15902)

WagerWizard

Invested

$207.87

Value

$229.96

PnL

+$22.09

Record

84%

15071-2930 (18001)

LightParadox

Invested

$188.4

Value

$203.52

PnL

+$15.12

Record

49%

1800-1900 (3700)

38791873984189

Invested

$194.08

Value

$188.34

PnL

+$12.08

Record

48%

62396-67251 (129647)

PT-S7

Invested

$128

Value

$128.77

PnL

+$0.77

Record

49%

3280-3447 (6727)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR

Yes

Invested

$200

Value

$125

PnL

-$75

Record

56%

8730-6789 (15519)

GC-P<$100

Invested

$85.44

Value

$90.07

PnL

+$4.63

Record

64%

10179-5769 (15948)

Pan9X<$100

Invested

$89.7

Value

$88.75

PnL

+$10.05

Record

54%

10453-8773 (19226)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$74.39

Value

$44.28

PnL

-$30.11

Record

46%

1791-2100 (3891)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$33.05

Value

$20.62

PnL

-$12.43

Record

48%

1775-1911 (3686)

SnakeBall<$100

Invested

$19.6

Value

$18.76

PnL

-$0.84

Record

51%

38228-37447 (75675)

VeryLucky888CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$7.81

Value

$9.88

PnL

+$2.07

Record

58%

47503-34297 (81800)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2<$100

Invested

$3.76

Value

$4.17

PnL

+$0.4

Record

52%

14650-13314 (27964)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 89%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

10 of 16 top traders (63%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance90.0%

88.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$11.15

Max Loss

-$100.00

111.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.