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Consensus Lost ✗

Smart money consensus was Under — but Over won instead.

TSG 1899 Hoffenheim vs. BV Borussia 09 Dortmund: O/U 4.5

Resolved Over. 47% of the top Polymarket traders held Under. The smart money was wrong.

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RESOLVED

💀

Lost

Consensus Traders

15

Under 67%

Total Value

$387.13

Combined PnL

$3.5K

Smart Money Signal

Under

7 of 15 top traders (47%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Over100%

Under0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under7 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares7,207

Combined PnL+$3.2K

Over8 traders

Total Value$387.13

Total Shares387

Combined PnL+$347.73

Under — 47%Over — 53%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL FlaznorpCTR	Underavg 61.3¢	$4.8K	—	-$807.32	51% 27272-25818 (53090)
RN1CTR	Underavg 58.7¢	$3.8K	—	+$2.7K	53% 63014-55227 (118241)
FE ferrariChampions2026	Overavg 24.9¢	$91.51	$366.08	+$274.57	42% 8192-11384 (19576)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR	Underavg 51.2¢	$199.65	—	+$807.15	56% 8738-6795 (15533)
38 38791873984189CTR	Underavg 7.6¢	$321.04	—	+$491.18	48% 63191-68207 (131398)
PA Pan9X<$100	Overavg 21.6¢	$24.98	$21.05	+$72.16	54% 10485-8797 (19282)
CI cigarettes<$100	Overavg 7¢	—	—	+$0	50% 59994-58808 (118802)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR<$100	Underavg 45.2¢	—	—	+$0	50% 29172-29037 (58209)
NO NordhavenCap<$100	Overavg 13.6¢	—	—	+$0	57% 2487-1893 (4380)
ES esticamos<$100	Overavg 97¢	—	—	+$0	51% 191-186 (377)
WA WagerWizard<$100	Overavg 96.2¢	—	—	+$0	84% 15082-2932 (18014)
ocr7<$100	Overavg 94.4¢	—	—	+$0	55% 1405-1155 (2560)
LA LaarsY<$100	Overavg 20¢	$0.25	—	+$1	51% 3557-3462 (7019)
LR lryyyCTR<$100	Underavg 6.2¢	—	—	+$0	47% 9585-10702 (20287)
UN uninformedflowwCTR<$100	Underavg 5¢	—	—	+$0	56% 77627-59916 (137543)

Invested

$4,828.59

Value

—

PnL

-$807.32

Record

51%

27272-25818 (53090)

Invested

$3,827.38

Value

—

PnL

+$2.7K

Record

53%

63014-55227 (118241)

ferrariChampions2026

Invested

$91.51

Value

$366.08

PnL

+$274.57

Record

42%

8192-11384 (19576)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR

Invested

$199.65

Value

—

PnL

+$807.15

Record

56%

8738-6795 (15533)

38791873984189CTR

Invested

$321.04

Value

—

PnL

+$491.18

Record

48%

63191-68207 (131398)

Invested

$24.98

Value

$21.05

PnL

+$72.16

Record

54%

10485-8797 (19282)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

—

Value

—

PnL

+$0

Record

50%

59994-58808 (118802)

GoalLineGhostCTR<$100

Invested

—

Value

—

PnL

+$0

Record

50%

29172-29037 (58209)

NordhavenCap<$100

Invested

—

Value

—

PnL

+$0

Record

57%

2487-1893 (4380)

Invested

—

Value

—

PnL

+$0

Record

51%

191-186 (377)

WagerWizard<$100

Invested

—

Value

—

PnL

+$0

Record

84%

15082-2932 (18014)

Invested

—

Value

—

PnL

+$0

Record

55%

1405-1155 (2560)

Invested

$0.25

Value

—

PnL

+$1

Record

51%

3557-3462 (7019)

Invested

—

Value

—

PnL

+$0

Record

47%

9585-10702 (20287)

uninformedflowwCTR<$100

Invested

—

Value

—

PnL

+$0

Record

56%

77627-59916 (137543)

Smart Money Signal

Under

7 of 15 top traders (47%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0x354beb7c...5a9bc0

Slug

bun-hof-dor-2026-09-05-total-4pt5

Traders in this Market

Flaznorp

Under — $0

RN1

Under — $0

ferrariChampions2026

Over — $366.08

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872

Under — $0

38791873984189

Under — $0

Pan9X

Over — $21.05

cigarettes

Over — $0

GoalLineGhost

Under — $0

NordhavenCap

Over — $0

esticamos

Over — $0

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