Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (87%). 10 of 20 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

BV Borussia 09 Dortmund vs. SV 07 Elversberg: O/U 3.5

10 of 20 top Polymarket traders hold Over (50%) · Over at 14¢ · $26K held · ended Nov 7

Over14¢Under86¢Ended Sat, Nov 7, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 50%

Total Value

$25.6K

Combined PnL

$-9.2K

Smart Money Entry

48.9¢ → 13.5¢

-72% since entry · 10 traders

Research grade

AvoidOver at 14%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

10 of 20 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors Under 87%)10 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over14%

Under87%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under10 traders

Total Value$20.5K

Total Shares23,615

Combined PnL+$7.9K

Over10 traders

Total Value$5.1K

Total Shares45,092

Combined PnL$-17.1K

Under — 50%Over — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
KY Kyn008	Underavg 51¢	$8.0K	$13.6K	+$5.6K	49% 299-312 (611)
FE ferrariChampions2026CTR	Overavg 49¢	$20.7K	$4.4K	$-16.3K	42% 8168-11360 (19528)
GO GoalLineGhost	Underavg 51.9¢	$2.9K	$4.0K	+$1.1K	50% 28937-28754 (57691)
GC GC-P	Underavg 50¢	$425	$760.75	+$335.75	64% 10179-5769 (15948)
NM NM-P	Underavg 50¢	$425	$760.75	+$335.75	64% 10182-5720 (15902)
SE sentrio	Underavg 51¢	$369.13	$626.16	+$257.03	50% 26409-26025 (52434)
FL Flaznorp	Underavg 51.1¢	$183.12	$310.02	+$126.9	51% 27227-25781 (53008)
38 38791873984189CTR	Overavg 48.8¢	$352.42	$284.08	-$68.34	48% 62396-67251 (129647)
VE Venusian	Underavg 50¢	$140	$242.2	+$102.2	49% 1843-1935 (3778)
SN SnakeBall	Underavg 58¢	$138.69	$192.5	+$53.8	51% 38228-37447 (75675)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR	Overavg 46¢	$460	$105	-$355	56% 8730-6789 (15519)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh<$100	Underavg 52¢	$52	$86.5	+$34.5	46% 1791-2100 (3891)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR	Overavg 49¢	$294	$81	-$213	51% 2058-1996 (4054)
VeryLucky888CTR	Overavg 48¢	$197.32	$76.05	-$121.27	58% 47503-34297 (81800)
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100	Overavg 48¢	$49.98	$49.98	+$0	49% 14983-15895 (30878)
ZT ZTMZqClEsjMmwCDWXoGCTR<$100	Overavg 50.2¢	$35.89	$34.29	-$1.61	59% 6849-4851 (11700)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Overavg 47.5¢	$59.99	$24.99	-$35	54% 10453-8773 (19226)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	Overavg 48¢	$2.4	$2.4	+$0	52% 9018-8169 (17187)
RN1<$100	Underavg 56¢	$1.25	$1.91	+$0.66	53% 62321-54560 (116881)
AN Anon455CTR<$100	Overavg 40¢	$3.33	$1.62	-$1.71	55% 3804-3137 (6941)

Kyn008

Under

Invested

$7,991.73

Value

$13.6K

PnL

+$5.6K

Record

49%

299-312 (611)

ferrariChampions2026CTR

Over

Invested

$20,733.74

Value

$4.4K

PnL

$-16.3K

Record

42%

8168-11360 (19528)

GoalLineGhost

Under

Invested

$2,870.74

Value

$4.0K

PnL

+$1.1K

Record

50%

28937-28754 (57691)

GC-P

Under

Invested

$425

Value

$760.75

PnL

+$335.75

Record

64%

10179-5769 (15948)

NM-P

Under

Invested

$425

Value

$760.75

PnL

+$335.75

Record

64%

10182-5720 (15902)

sentrio

Under

Invested

$369.13

Value

$626.16

PnL

+$257.03

Record

50%

26409-26025 (52434)

Flaznorp

Under

Invested

$183.12

Value

$310.02

PnL

+$126.9

Record

51%

27227-25781 (53008)

38791873984189CTR

Over

Invested

$352.42

Value

$284.08

PnL

-$68.34

Record

48%

62396-67251 (129647)

Venusian

Under

Invested

$140

Value

$242.2

PnL

+$102.2

Record

49%

1843-1935 (3778)

SnakeBall

Under

Invested

$138.69

Value

$192.5

PnL

+$53.8

Record

51%

38228-37447 (75675)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR

Over

Invested

$460

Value

$105

PnL

-$355

Record

56%

8730-6789 (15519)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh<$100

Under

Invested

$52

Value

$86.5

PnL

+$34.5

Record

46%

1791-2100 (3891)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR

Over

Invested

$294

Value

$81

PnL

-$213

Record

51%

2058-1996 (4054)

VeryLucky888CTR

Over

Invested

$197.32

Value

$76.05

PnL

-$121.27

Record

58%

47503-34297 (81800)

LuckyLooCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$49.98

Value

$49.98

PnL

+$0

Record

49%

14983-15895 (30878)

ZTMZqClEsjMmwCDWXoGCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$35.89

Value

$34.29

PnL

-$1.61

Record

59%

6849-4851 (11700)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$59.99

Value

$24.99

PnL

-$35

Record

54%

10453-8773 (19226)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$2.4

Value

$2.4

PnL

+$0

Record

52%

9018-8169 (17187)

RN1<$100

Under

Invested

$1.25

Value

$1.91

PnL

+$0.66

Record

53%

62321-54560 (116881)

Anon455CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$3.33

Value

$1.62

PnL

-$1.71

Record

55%

3804-3137 (6941)

Research grade

AvoidOver at 14%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Over

10 of 20 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors Under 87%)10 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance15.1%

13.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$561.38

Max Loss

-$100.00

661.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.