BV Borussia 09 Dortmund vs. SV 07 Elversberg: O/U 0.5

8 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Over (67%) · Over at 100¢ · $11K held · ended Nov 7

Over>99¢Under<1¢Ended Sat, Nov 7, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 67%

Total Value

$10.8K

Combined PnL

-$4.65

Smart Money Entry

97.2¢ → 100¢

+3% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

8 of 12 top traders (67%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over100%

Under0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over8 traders

Total Value$9.7K

Total Shares10,861

Combined PnL-$888.03

Under4 traders

Total Value$1.1K

Total Shares9,655

Combined PnL+$883.38

Over — 67%Under — 33%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 91%

Freshness

Fresh

6h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

57% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 91% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleOver 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrOver 75% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000Over 57% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp	Overavg 97.2¢	$4.9K	$4.4K	-$454.69	51% 27227-25781 (53008)
RN1	Overavg 97.1¢	$2.8K	$2.6K	-$261.34	53% 62321-54560 (116881)
GO GoalLineGhost	Overavg 97.5¢	$1.2K	$1.2K	-$12.44	50% 28937-28754 (57691)
VE VenusianCTR	Underavg 2.7¢	$216.81	$946.11	+$729.3	49% 1843-1935 (3778)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872	Overavg 97.2¢	$959.36	$855.24	-$104.13	56% 8730-6789 (15519)
38 38791873984189	Overavg 97.4¢	$524.73	$292.79	-$25.11	48% 62396-67251 (129647)
LU LuckyLooCTR	Underavg 2.4¢	$37.94	$184.22	+$146.28	49% 14983-15895 (30878)
XT xtxpleasecallme	Overavg 97.4¢	$162.37	$146.91	-$15.46	35% 19622-37185 (56807)
PA Pan9X	Overavg 97.1¢	$136.9	$109.21	-$14.82	54% 10453-8773 (19226)
SE sentrio<$100	Overavg 97.4¢	$60.13	$60.09	-$0.04	50% 26409-26025 (52434)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Underavg 3¢	$2.28	$10.15	+$7.87	48% 1775-1911 (3686)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Underavg 2.7¢	$1.09	$1.02	-$0.07	49% 1800-1900 (3700)

Flaznorp

Over

Invested

$4,888.65

Value

$4.4K

PnL

-$454.69

Record

51%

27227-25781 (53008)

RN1

Over

Invested

$2,835.32

Value

$2.6K

PnL

-$261.34

Record

53%

62321-54560 (116881)

GoalLineGhost

Over

Invested

$1,212.52

Value

$1.2K

PnL

-$12.44

Record

50%

28937-28754 (57691)

VenusianCTR

Under

Invested

$216.81

Value

$946.11

PnL

+$729.3

Record

49%

1843-1935 (3778)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872

Over

Invested

$959.36

Value

$855.24

PnL

-$104.13

Record

56%

8730-6789 (15519)

38791873984189

Over

Invested

$524.73

Value

$292.79

PnL

-$25.11

Record

48%

62396-67251 (129647)

LuckyLooCTR

Under

Invested

$37.94

Value

$184.22

PnL

+$146.28

Record

49%

14983-15895 (30878)

xtxpleasecallme

Over

Invested

$162.37

Value

$146.91

PnL

-$15.46

Record

35%

19622-37185 (56807)

Pan9X

Over

Invested

$136.9

Value

$109.21

PnL

-$14.82

Record

54%

10453-8773 (19226)

sentrio<$100

Over

Invested

$60.13

Value

$60.09

PnL

-$0.04

Record

50%

26409-26025 (52434)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$2.28

Value

$10.15

PnL

+$7.87

Record

48%

1775-1911 (3686)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$1.09

Value

$1.02

PnL

-$0.07

Record

49%

1800-1900 (3700)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

Smart Money Signal

Over

8 of 12 top traders (67%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 91%

Freshness

Fresh

6h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

57% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 91% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleOver 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrOver 75% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000Over 57% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.