Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Down, while the market favors Up (100%). 13 of 28 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Bitcoin Up or Down - November 7, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET

13 of 28 top Polymarket traders hold Down (46%) · Down at 0.1¢ · $5K held · ended Nov 8

Up>99¢Down<1¢Ended Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Down

Consensus Traders

Down 46%

Total Value

$4.9K

Combined PnL

$472.55

Smart Money Entry

52.5¢ → 0.1¢

-100% since entry · 13 traders

Research grade

AvoidDown at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Down

13 of 28 top traders (46%)Underdog side (market favors Up 100%)13 hold an outcome priced under 50%13 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up15 traders

Total Value$4.0K

Total Shares3,964

Combined PnL+$1.8K

Down13 traders

Total Value$926.35

Total Shares3,739

Combined PnL$-1.3K

Up — 54%Down — 46%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
UN uninformedfloww	Upavg 37.5¢	$512.55	$1.4K	+$854.42	56% 77627-59916 (137543)
machinelearned	Upavg 39.4¢	$443.56	$819.7	+$376.14	55% 9938-8254 (18192)
BO Bonereaper	Upavg 52.8¢	$265.9	$488.06	+$222.16	66% 101181-52990 (154171)
ohioism	Upavg 77.8¢	$248.85	$319.84	+$70.99	63% 42627-25355 (67982)
BL blue.birds	Upavg 51¢	$214.03	$297.05	+$83.02	51% 12360-11859 (24219)
AL almachCTR	Downavg 49.5¢	$267.94	$256.98	-$10.96	55% 50273-41876 (92149)
BO bosonaCTR	Downavg 38.3¢	$286.34	$238.08	-$48.26	55% 51803-42237 (94040)
AS asdcaxz	Upavg 54.2¢	$206.77	$217.19	+$10.42	48% 6887-7490 (14377)
ZT ZTMZqClEsjMmwCDWXoGCTR	Downavg 77.5¢	$236.05	$150.78	-$85.26	59% 6954-4900 (11854)
MO mo-moneyCTR	Downavg 38.5¢	$144.52	$119.97	-$24.55	55% 52460-42905 (95365)
BY ByteBadger93CTR	Downavg 70.3¢	$166.02	$116.9	-$49.12	55% 1746-1424 (3170)
AS asdaefef<$100	Upavg 51.4¢	$43.7	$85.02	+$41.32	66% 130972-67764 (198736)
G-Penis-Monster<$100	Upavg 85.6¢	$68.51	$79.96	+$11.45	61% 46285-29472 (75757)
AS asidjasiodja<$100	Upavg 53.9¢	$37.24	$69.09	+$31.85	61% 98877-62775 (161652)
DA dangerously-skip-permissions<$100	Upavg 94¢	$71.39	$60	-$11.39	54% 16644-14090 (30734)
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100	Upavg 47¢	$25	$53.16	+$28.16	65% 130645-70397 (201042)
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100	Upavg 46.6¢	$20.95	$44.98	+$24.03	58% 63507-46701 (110208)
0X 0xdc27...afdd9aCTR<$100	Downavg 74.9¢	$64.45	$42.6	-$21.85	52% 2180-1978 (4158)
WZ wzbbb<$100	Upavg 44¢	$18.4	$41.8	+$23.4	57% 9999-7468 (17467)
AN antsaslyku<$100	Upavg 61.4¢	$6.32	$10.22	+$3.9	65% 114804-61868 (176672)
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100	Upavg 75¢	$7.5	$10	+$2.5	56% 60779-47271 (108050)
OX oxe78sh4w98CTR	Downavg 61.9¢	$375.15	$0.3	-$374.85	53% 626-550 (1176)
AtomforgeCTR	Downavg 66¢	$346.54	$0.26	-$346.28	64% 5030-2825 (7855)
PL ply-pm0CTR<$100	Downavg 15¢	$50.38	$0.17	-$50.21	50% 6436-6457 (12893)
LI LiquidifierCTR	Downavg 45.8¢	$102.29	$0.11	-$102.18	50% 1211-1192 (2403)

uninformedfloww

Invested

$512.55

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$854.42

Record

56%

77627-59916 (137543)

machinelearned

Invested

$443.56

Value

$819.7

PnL

+$376.14

Record

55%

9938-8254 (18192)

Bonereaper

Invested

$265.9

Value

$488.06

PnL

+$222.16

Record

66%

101181-52990 (154171)

ohioism

Invested

$248.85

Value

$319.84

PnL

+$70.99

Record

63%

42627-25355 (67982)

blue.birds

Invested

$214.03

Value

$297.05

PnL

+$83.02

Record

51%

12360-11859 (24219)

almachCTR

Down

Invested

$267.94

Value

$256.98

PnL

-$10.96

Record

55%

50273-41876 (92149)

bosonaCTR

Down

Invested

$286.34

Value

$238.08

PnL

-$48.26

Record

55%

51803-42237 (94040)

asdcaxz

Invested

$206.77

Value

$217.19

PnL

+$10.42

Record

48%

6887-7490 (14377)

ZTMZqClEsjMmwCDWXoGCTR

Down

Invested

$236.05

Value

$150.78

PnL

-$85.26

Record

59%

6954-4900 (11854)

mo-moneyCTR

Down

Invested

$144.52

Value

$119.97

PnL

-$24.55

Record

55%

52460-42905 (95365)

ByteBadger93CTR

Down

Invested

$166.02

Value

$116.9

PnL

-$49.12

Record

55%

1746-1424 (3170)

asdaefef<$100

Invested

$43.7

Value

$85.02

PnL

+$41.32

Record

66%

130972-67764 (198736)

G-Penis-Monster<$100

Invested

$68.51

Value

$79.96

PnL

+$11.45

Record

61%

46285-29472 (75757)

asidjasiodja<$100

Invested

$37.24

Value

$69.09

PnL

+$31.85

Record

61%

98877-62775 (161652)

dangerously-skip-permissions<$100

Invested

$71.39

Value

$60

PnL

-$11.39

Record

54%

16644-14090 (30734)

drfc4eybh7i8<$100

Invested

$25

Value

$53.16

PnL

+$28.16

Record

65%

130645-70397 (201042)

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100

Invested

$20.95

Value

$44.98

PnL

+$24.03

Record

58%

63507-46701 (110208)

0xdc27...afdd9aCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$64.45

Value

$42.6

PnL

-$21.85

Record

52%

2180-1978 (4158)

wzbbb<$100

Invested

$18.4

Value

$41.8

PnL

+$23.4

Record

57%

9999-7468 (17467)

antsaslyku<$100

Invested

$6.32

Value

$10.22

PnL

+$3.9

Record

65%

114804-61868 (176672)

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100

Invested

$7.5

Value

$10

PnL

+$2.5

Record

56%

60779-47271 (108050)

oxe78sh4w98CTR

Down

Invested

$375.15

Value

$0.3

PnL

-$374.85

Record

53%

626-550 (1176)

AtomforgeCTR

Down

Invested

$346.54

Value

$0.26

PnL

-$346.28

Record

64%

5030-2825 (7855)

ply-pm0CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$50.38

Value

$0.17

PnL

-$50.21

Record

50%

6436-6457 (12893)

LiquidifierCTR

Down

Invested

$102.29

Value

$0.11

PnL

-$102.18

Record

50%

1211-1192 (2403)

Research grade

AvoidDown at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Down

13 of 28 top traders (46%)Underdog side (market favors Up 100%)13 hold an outcome priced under 50%13 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Down wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.1%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8806.87

Max Loss

-$100.00

8906.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.