Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down

Bitcoin Up or Down - November 4, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET

Resolved Down. 81% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.

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RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Down 84%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$9.4K

Combined PnL

$356.02

Smart Money Signal

Down

26 of 32 top traders (81%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%18 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down26 traders

Total Value$8.8K

Total Shares8,846

Combined PnL+$460.46

Up6 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares330

Combined PnL-$104.44

Down — 81%Up — 19%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
TH THG.	Downavg 99¢	$3.3K	$3.3K	+$31.76	56% 29671-23208 (52879)
BL blue.birds	Downavg 56.3¢	$656.69	$687.22	+$30.53	51% 11083-10569 (21652)
10 1000monkeys	Downavg 59.3¢	$619.56	$643.14	+$23.58	59% 10716-7383 (18099)
PL ply-pm0	Downavg 59.1¢	$616.84	$620.78	+$3.94	50% 6046-6032 (12078)
AS asdcaxz	Downavg 68.2¢	$675.29	$604.81	-$70.48	48% 5573-6007 (11580)
BO BonereaperARB<$100	Upavg 44.5¢	$700.56	$550.57	-$149.99	66% 100513-52538 (153051)
└ Down leg	Downavg 57.2¢	$315.18	$550.57	+$235.39
└ Up leg	Upavg 44.5¢	$385.38	—	-$385.38
machinelearned	Downavg 56.4¢	$344.98	$471.14	+$126.16	55% 9424-7798 (17222)
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609	Downavg 55.4¢	$442.1	$434.24	-$7.86	67% 101397-49715 (151112)
CR CrouchPredictions	Downavg 54¢	$343.13	$423.52	+$80.39	56% 15510-12186 (27696)
WZ wzbbb	Downavg 79.5¢	$346.18	$387.63	+$41.45	56% 8932-7009 (15941)
Polkadot-Frog	Downavg 55.3¢	$316.45	$319.99	+$3.54	63% 60059-34551 (94610)
0X 0xB129a54d3b23214728Dcc544034fc83067CD890C-1780260877658	Downavg 65¢	$162.04	$142.74	-$19.3	51% 9345-8820 (18165)
OhioAI	Downavg 69.2¢	$163.22	$135.03	-$28.19	54% 10236-8609 (18845)
NIULAI4	Downavg 60.7¢	$86.83	$142.99	+$56.16	76% 9713-3135 (12848)
0X 0xf3326D8Fc30F7Ed01BfAde12c706cb52c397B1c0-1780211395335<$100	Downavg 65¢	$63.44	$84.49	+$21.05	53% 10104-9114 (19218)
13 13897651	Downavg 49.7¢	$68.89	$138.69	+$69.8	56% 7933-6165 (14098)
EZ EZTRADENL2<$100	Downavg 57.5¢	$46.33	$61.76	+$15.42	57% 12348-9335 (21683)
AS asdaefef<$100	Downavg 83.5¢	$51.3	$61.4	+$10.1	66% 129276-66666 (195942)
OhioRiskManagement<$100	Downavg 55.4¢	$30.19	$51.21	+$21.03	49% 79812-83277 (163089)
PB PBot-5CTR<$100	Upavg 30.4¢	$78.97	—	-$78.97	52% 11814-10830 (22644)
G-Penis-Monster<$100	Downavg 50.6¢	$25.1	$49.56	+$24.46	62% 45257-28328 (73585)
pspspsps5<$100	Downavg 64¢	$9.73	$15.2	+$5.47	46% 39431-46955 (86386)
ohioism<$100	Downavg 57.7¢	$8.15	$12.04	+$3.89	63% 41692-24326 (66018)
PA Papeasy<$100	Downavg 70¢	$8.87	$12.67	+$3.8	49% 3699-3820 (7519)
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100	Downavg 63.2¢	$6.32	$10	+$3.68	65% 128751-68998 (197749)

THG.

Down

Invested

$3,279.24

Value

$3.3K

PnL

+$31.76

Record

56%

29671-23208 (52879)

blue.birds

Down

Invested

$656.69

Value

$687.22

PnL

+$30.53

Record

51%

11083-10569 (21652)

1000monkeys

Down

Invested

$619.56

Value

$643.14

PnL

+$23.58

Record

59%

10716-7383 (18099)

ply-pm0

Down

Invested

$616.84

Value

$620.78

PnL

+$3.94

Record

50%

6046-6032 (12078)

asdcaxz

Down

Invested

$675.29

Value

$604.81

PnL

-$70.48

Record

48%

5573-6007 (11580)

BonereaperARB<$100

Invested

$700.56

Value

$550.57

PnL

-$149.99

Record

66%

100513-52538 (153051)

Both legs:

Down$315.1857.2¢+$235.39

Up$385.3844.5¢-$385.38

machinelearned

Down

Invested

$344.98

Value

$471.14

PnL

+$126.16

Record

55%

9424-7798 (17222)

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

Down

Invested

$442.1

Value

$434.24

PnL

-$7.86

Record

67%

101397-49715 (151112)

CrouchPredictions

Down

Invested

$343.13

Value

$423.52

PnL

+$80.39

Record

56%

15510-12186 (27696)

wzbbb

Down

Invested

$346.18

Value

$387.63

PnL

+$41.45

Record

56%

8932-7009 (15941)

Polkadot-Frog

Down

Invested

$316.45

Value

$319.99

PnL

+$3.54

Record

63%

60059-34551 (94610)

0xB129a54d3b23214728Dcc544034fc83067CD890C-1780260877658

Down

Invested

$162.04

Value

$142.74

PnL

-$19.3

Record

51%

9345-8820 (18165)

OhioAI

Down

Invested

$163.22

Value

$135.03

PnL

-$28.19

Record

54%

10236-8609 (18845)

NIULAI4

Down

Invested

$86.83

Value

$142.99

PnL

+$56.16

Record

76%

9713-3135 (12848)

0xf3326D8Fc30F7Ed01BfAde12c706cb52c397B1c0-1780211395335<$100

Down

Invested

$63.44

Value

$84.49

PnL

+$21.05

Record

53%

10104-9114 (19218)

13897651

Down

Invested

$68.89

Value

$138.69

PnL

+$69.8

Record

56%

7933-6165 (14098)

EZTRADENL2<$100

Down

Invested

$46.33

Value

$61.76

PnL

+$15.42

Record

57%

12348-9335 (21683)

asdaefef<$100

Down

Invested

$51.3

Value

$61.4

PnL

+$10.1

Record

66%

129276-66666 (195942)

OhioRiskManagement<$100

Down

Invested

$30.19

Value

$51.21

PnL

+$21.03

Record

49%

79812-83277 (163089)

PBot-5CTR<$100

Invested

$78.97

Value

—

PnL

-$78.97

Record

52%

11814-10830 (22644)

G-Penis-Monster<$100

Down

Invested

$25.1

Value

$49.56

PnL

+$24.46

Record

62%

45257-28328 (73585)

pspspsps5<$100

Down

Invested

$9.73

Value

$15.2

PnL

+$5.47

Record

46%

39431-46955 (86386)

ohioism<$100

Down

Invested

$8.15

Value

$12.04

PnL

+$3.89

Record

63%

41692-24326 (66018)

Papeasy<$100

Down

Invested

$8.87

Value

$12.67

PnL

+$3.8

Record

49%

3699-3820 (7519)

drfc4eybh7i8<$100

Down

Invested

$6.32

Value

$10

PnL

+$3.68

Record

65%

128751-68998 (197749)

Smart Money Signal

Down

26 of 32 top traders (81%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%18 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

Market Info

Condition ID

0x14db522a...1e1b5e

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1793816100

Traders in this Market

THG.

Down — $3.3K

+$31.76

blue.birds

Down — $687.22

+$30.53

1000monkeys

Down — $643.14

+$23.58

ply-pm0

Down — $620.78

+$3.94

asdcaxz

Down — $604.81

-$70.48

Bonereaper

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

-$149.99

machinelearned

Down — $471.14

+$126.16

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

Down — $434.24

-$7.86

CrouchPredictions

Down — $423.52

+$80.39

wzbbb

Down — $387.63

+$41.45

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