Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down

Bitcoin Up or Down - November 4, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET

Resolved Down. 71% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.

View on Polymarket

RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Down 70%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$8.0K

Combined PnL

$-1.5K

Smart Money Signal

Down

25 of 35 top traders (71%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed10 hold an outcome priced under 50%18 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down25 traders

Total Value$7.8K

Total Shares7,814

Combined PnL+$1.1K

Up10 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares3,155

Combined PnL$-2.6K

Down — 71%Up — 29%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
TH THG.	Downavg 99¢	$3.0K	$3.0K	+$29.77	56% 29671-23208 (52879)
BO Bonereaper	Downavg 71.4¢	$1.6K	$1.7K	+$189.68	66% 100513-52538 (153051)
BL blue.birdsCTR	Upavg 62¢	$557.89	—	-$557.89	51% 11083-10569 (21652)
PL ply-pm0CTR	Upavg 40.7¢	$584.61	—	-$584.61	50% 6046-6032 (12078)
AS asdcaxzCTR	Upavg 44.9¢	$575.88	—	-$575.88	48% 5573-6007 (11580)
10 1000monkeys	Downavg 43¢	$448.44	$533.23	+$84.78	59% 10716-7383 (18099)
0X 0xB129a54d3b23214728Dcc544034fc83067CD890C-1780260877658	Downavg 47.7¢	$430.73	$467.34	+$36.61	51% 9345-8820 (18165)
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609CTR	Upavg 50.3¢	$335.97	—	-$335.97	67% 101397-49715 (151112)
CR CrouchPredictions	Downavg 38.2¢	$224.06	$379.02	+$154.96	56% 15510-12186 (27696)
Polkadot-FrogCTR	Upavg 45.4¢	$247.02	—	-$190.63	63% 60059-34551 (94610)
NIULAI4	Downavg 84¢	$243.39	$284.67	+$41.28	76% 9713-3135 (12848)
OhioAI	Downavg 56.7¢	$248.89	$233	-$15.89	54% 10236-8609 (18845)
machinelearnedARB<$100	Upavg 61.3¢	$140.71	$170	+$29.29	55% 9424-7798 (17222)
└ Up leg	Upavg 61.3¢	$100.01	—	-$100.01
└ Down leg	Downavg 23.9¢	$40.7	$170	+$129.3
PB PBot-6	Downavg 47.5¢	$189.99	$399.99	+$209.99	58% 51757-37804 (89561)
MayorMamdani	Downavg 78.8¢	$83.46	$105.9	+$22.45	55% 50634-42081 (92715)
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100	Downavg 52.1¢	$52.78	$95	+$42.22	58% 62279-45653 (107932)
PA PapeasyCTR	Upavg 63¢	$109.01	—	-$109.01	49% 3699-3820 (7519)
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100	Downavg 40.6¢	$37.29	$83.8	+$46.51	56% 59680-46278 (105958)
WZ wzbbbARB<$100	Upavg 73.9¢	$78.58	$63.36	-$15.22	56% 8932-7009 (15941)
└ Up leg	Upavg 73.9¢	$60.74	—	-$60.74
└ Down leg	Downavg 28.2¢	$17.84	$63.36	+$45.52
DR drfc4eybh7i8CTR	Upavg 83¢	$119.37	—	-$119.37	65% 128751-68998 (197749)
13 13897651<$100	Downavg 47¢	$63.38	$70.85	+$7.47	56% 7933-6165 (14098)
EZ EZTRADENL2CTR<$100	Upavg 75.9¢	$94.88	—	-$94.88	57% 12348-9335 (21683)
G-Penis-Monster<$100	Downavg 53.5¢	$39.72	$60	+$20.28	62% 45257-28328 (73585)
AN antsaslyku<$100	Downavg 29.2¢	$20.03	$34.71	+$14.68	65% 113900-60785 (174685)
AS asdaefefCTR<$100	Upavg 73¢	$28.35	—	-$28.35	66% 129276-66666 (195942)

THG.

Down

Invested

$2,994.68

Value

$3.0K

PnL

+$29.77

Record

56%

29671-23208 (52879)

Bonereaper

Down

Invested

$1,551.01

Value

$1.7K

PnL

+$189.68

Record

66%

100513-52538 (153051)

blue.birdsCTR

Invested

$557.89

Value

—

PnL

-$557.89

Record

51%

11083-10569 (21652)

ply-pm0CTR

Invested

$584.61

Value

—

PnL

-$584.61

Record

50%

6046-6032 (12078)

asdcaxzCTR

Invested

$575.88

Value

—

PnL

-$575.88

Record

48%

5573-6007 (11580)

1000monkeys

Down

Invested

$448.44

Value

$533.23

PnL

+$84.78

Record

59%

10716-7383 (18099)

0xB129a54d3b23214728Dcc544034fc83067CD890C-1780260877658

Down

Invested

$430.73

Value

$467.34

PnL

+$36.61

Record

51%

9345-8820 (18165)

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609CTR

Invested

$335.97

Value

—

PnL

-$335.97

Record

67%

101397-49715 (151112)

CrouchPredictions

Down

Invested

$224.06

Value

$379.02

PnL

+$154.96

Record

56%

15510-12186 (27696)

Polkadot-FrogCTR

Invested

$247.02

Value

—

PnL

-$190.63

Record

63%

60059-34551 (94610)

NIULAI4

Down

Invested

$243.39

Value

$284.67

PnL

+$41.28

Record

76%

9713-3135 (12848)

OhioAI

Down

Invested

$248.89

Value

$233

PnL

-$15.89

Record

54%

10236-8609 (18845)

machinelearnedARB<$100

Invested

$140.71

Value

$170

PnL

+$29.29

Record

55%

9424-7798 (17222)

Both legs:

Up$100.0161.3¢-$100.01

Down$40.723.9¢+$129.3

PBot-6

Down

Invested

$189.99

Value

$399.99

PnL

+$209.99

Record

58%

51757-37804 (89561)

MayorMamdani

Down

Invested

$83.46

Value

$105.9

PnL

+$22.45

Record

55%

50634-42081 (92715)

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100

Down

Invested

$52.78

Value

$95

PnL

+$42.22

Record

58%

62279-45653 (107932)

PapeasyCTR

Invested

$109.01

Value

—

PnL

-$109.01

Record

49%

3699-3820 (7519)

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100

Down

Invested

$37.29

Value

$83.8

PnL

+$46.51

Record

56%

59680-46278 (105958)

wzbbbARB<$100

Invested

$78.58

Value

$63.36

PnL

-$15.22

Record

56%

8932-7009 (15941)

Both legs:

Up$60.7473.9¢-$60.74

Down$17.8428.2¢+$45.52

drfc4eybh7i8CTR

Invested

$119.37

Value

—

PnL

-$119.37

Record

65%

128751-68998 (197749)

13897651<$100

Down

Invested

$63.38

Value

$70.85

PnL

+$7.47

Record

56%

7933-6165 (14098)

EZTRADENL2CTR<$100

Invested

$94.88

Value

—

PnL

-$94.88

Record

57%

12348-9335 (21683)

G-Penis-Monster<$100

Down

Invested

$39.72

Value

$60

PnL

+$20.28

Record

62%

45257-28328 (73585)

antsaslyku<$100

Down

Invested

$20.03

Value

$34.71

PnL

+$14.68

Record

65%

113900-60785 (174685)

asdaefefCTR<$100

Invested

$28.35

Value

—

PnL

-$28.35

Record

66%

129276-66666 (195942)

Smart Money Signal

Down

25 of 35 top traders (71%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed10 hold an outcome priced under 50%18 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

Market Info

Condition ID

0x7f0cbe7c...2c5b04

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1793816700

Traders in this Market

THG.

Down — $3.0K

+$29.77

Bonereaper

Down — $1.7K

blue.birds

Up — $0

ply-pm0

Up — $0

asdcaxz

Up — $0

1000monkeys

Down — $533.23

+$84.78

0xB129a54d3b23214728Dcc544034fc83067CD890C-1780260877658

Down — $467.34

+$36.61

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

CTR

Up — $0

-$335.97

CrouchPredictions

Down — $379.02

Polkadot-Frog

Up — $0