Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down

Bitcoin Up or Down - November 4, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET

Resolved Down. 83% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.

View on Polymarket

RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Down 82%

4 arb excluded

Total Value

$11.7K

Combined PnL

-$42.96

Smart Money Signal

Down

30 of 36 top traders (83%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%16 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down30 traders

Total Value$10.1K

Total Shares10,115

Combined PnL+$889.65

Up6 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares1,139

Combined PnL-$932.61

Down — 83%Up — 17%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
PL ply-pm0	Downavg 46.6¢	$1.0K	$1.2K	+$229.76	50% 6046-6032 (12078)
CR CrouchPredictions	Downavg 75.6¢	$1.2K	$1.1K	-$67.7	56% 15510-12186 (27696)
BL blue.birds	Downavg 65.7¢	$976.08	$1.0K	+$59.99	51% 11083-10569 (21652)
BoneOhio	Downavg 98.4¢	$921.59	$936.36	+$14.78	74% 104328-36850 (141178)
BO Bonereaper	Downavg 55.8¢	$611.19	$864.93	+$253.73	66% 100513-52538 (153051)
Polkadot-Frog	Downavg 46¢	$590.85	$739.6	+$148.75	63% 60059-34551 (94610)
10 1000monkeys	Downavg 70.7¢	$657.92	$627.03	-$30.89	59% 10716-7383 (18099)
AL almachARB<$100	Downavg 78.8¢	$825.4	$632.13	-$193.27	55% 49742-41286 (91028)
└ Down leg	Downavg 78.8¢	$498.37	$632.13	+$133.76
└ Up leg	Upavg 65.4¢	$327.04	—	-$327.04
MO mo-moneyARB<$100	Downavg 90¢	$793.28	$500	-$293.28	55% 51833-42277 (94110)
└ Down leg	Downavg 90¢	$450	$500	+$50
└ Up leg	Upavg 68.7¢	$343.28	—	-$343.28
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609CTR	Upavg 64.8¢	$557.16	—	-$557.16	67% 101397-49715 (151112)
13 13897651	Downavg 73.4¢	$433.52	$436.14	+$2.62	56% 7933-6165 (14098)
NIULAI4	Downavg 67.9¢	$302.59	$394.97	+$92.38	76% 9713-3135 (12848)
AS asdcaxz	Downavg 71.1¢	$439.86	$387.32	-$52.54	48% 5573-6007 (11580)
machinelearned	Downavg 82.6¢	$327.61	$330.53	+$2.92	55% 9424-7798 (17222)
GA gansinimenARB<$100	Downavg 36.6¢	$165.73	$300	+$134.27	51% 17461-16899 (34360)
└ Down leg	Downavg 36.6¢	$109.78	$300	+$190.22
└ Up leg	Upavg 21¢	$55.95	—	-$55.95
UN uninformedfloww	Downavg 87.8¢	$351.17	$400	+$48.83	57% 76514-58860 (135374)
0X 0xB129a54d3b23214728Dcc544034fc83067CD890C-1780260877658	Downavg 75.1¢	$222.32	$263	+$40.68	51% 9345-8820 (18165)
EZ EZTRADENL2	Downavg 58.3¢	$182.52	$262.49	+$79.97	57% 12348-9335 (21683)
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025	Downavg 80.2¢	$164.35	$186.92	+$22.57	58% 62279-45653 (107932)
TH THG.	Downavg 99¢	$170.74	$172.46	+$1.72	56% 29671-23208 (52879)
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530	Downavg 83¢	$136.27	$135	-$1.27	56% 59680-46278 (105958)
WZ wzbbbARB<$100	Downavg 58.6¢	$128.73	$132.69	+$3.96	56% 8932-7009 (15941)
└ Down leg	Downavg 58.6¢	$77.81	$132.69	+$54.87
└ Up leg	Upavg 48.4¢	$50.91	—	-$50.91
OhioRiskManagement<$100	Downavg 88.9¢	$73.61	$77.74	+$4.13	49% 79812-83277 (163089)
0X 0xf3326D8Fc30F7Ed01BfAde12c706cb52c397B1c0-1780211395335<$100	Downavg 69.9¢	$61.86	$76.5	+$14.64	53% 10104-9114 (19218)
pspspsps5<$100	Downavg 82.1¢	$83.91	$95.05	+$11.14	46% 39431-46955 (86386)

ply-pm0

Down

Invested

$1,017.68

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$229.76

Record

50%

6046-6032 (12078)

CrouchPredictions

Down

Invested

$1,168.28

Value

$1.1K

PnL

-$67.7

Record

56%

15510-12186 (27696)

blue.birds

Down

Invested

$976.08

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$59.99

Record

51%

11083-10569 (21652)

BoneOhio

Down

Invested

$921.59

Value

$936.36

PnL

+$14.78

Record

74%

104328-36850 (141178)

Bonereaper

Down

Invested

$611.19

Value

$864.93

PnL

+$253.73

Record

66%

100513-52538 (153051)

Polkadot-Frog

Down

Invested

$590.85

Value

$739.6

PnL

+$148.75

Record

63%

60059-34551 (94610)

1000monkeys

Down

Invested

$657.92

Value

$627.03

PnL

-$30.89

Record

59%

10716-7383 (18099)

almachARB<$100

Down

Invested

$825.4

Value

$632.13

PnL

-$193.27

Record

55%

49742-41286 (91028)

Both legs:

Down$498.3778.8¢+$133.76

Up$327.0465.4¢-$327.04

mo-moneyARB<$100

Down

Invested

$793.28

Value

$500

PnL

-$293.28

Record

55%

51833-42277 (94110)

Both legs:

Down$45090¢+$50

Up$343.2868.7¢-$343.28

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609CTR

Invested

$557.16

Value

—

PnL

-$557.16

Record

67%

101397-49715 (151112)

13897651

Down

Invested

$433.52

Value

$436.14

PnL

+$2.62

Record

56%

7933-6165 (14098)

NIULAI4

Down

Invested

$302.59

Value

$394.97

PnL

+$92.38

Record

76%

9713-3135 (12848)

asdcaxz

Down

Invested

$439.86

Value

$387.32

PnL

-$52.54

Record

48%

5573-6007 (11580)

machinelearned

Down

Invested

$327.61

Value

$330.53

PnL

+$2.92

Record

55%

9424-7798 (17222)

gansinimenARB<$100

Down

Invested

$165.73

Value

$300

PnL

+$134.27

Record

51%

17461-16899 (34360)

Both legs:

Down$109.7836.6¢+$190.22

Up$55.9521¢-$55.95

uninformedfloww

Down

Invested

$351.17

Value

$400

PnL

+$48.83

Record

57%

76514-58860 (135374)

0xB129a54d3b23214728Dcc544034fc83067CD890C-1780260877658

Down

Invested

$222.32

Value

$263

PnL

+$40.68

Record

51%

9345-8820 (18165)

EZTRADENL2

Down

Invested

$182.52

Value

$262.49

PnL

+$79.97

Record

57%

12348-9335 (21683)

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025

Down

Invested

$164.35

Value

$186.92

PnL

+$22.57

Record

58%

62279-45653 (107932)

THG.

Down

Invested

$170.74

Value

$172.46

PnL

+$1.72

Record

56%

29671-23208 (52879)

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530

Down

Invested

$136.27

Value

$135

PnL

-$1.27

Record

56%

59680-46278 (105958)

wzbbbARB<$100

Down

Invested

$128.73

Value

$132.69

PnL

+$3.96

Record

56%

8932-7009 (15941)

Both legs:

Down$77.8158.6¢+$54.87

Up$50.9148.4¢-$50.91

OhioRiskManagement<$100

Down

Invested

$73.61

Value

$77.74

PnL

+$4.13

Record

49%

79812-83277 (163089)

0xf3326D8Fc30F7Ed01BfAde12c706cb52c397B1c0-1780211395335<$100

Down

Invested

$61.86

Value

$76.5

PnL

+$14.64

Record

53%

10104-9114 (19218)

pspspsps5<$100

Down

Invested

$83.91

Value

$95.05

PnL

+$11.14

Record

46%

39431-46955 (86386)

Smart Money Signal

Down

30 of 36 top traders (83%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%16 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

Market Info

Condition ID

0x9631dd01...30acd1

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1793815800

Traders in this Market

ply-pm0

Down — $1.2K

+$229.76

CrouchPredictions

Down — $1.1K

-$67.7

blue.birds

Down — $1.0K

+$59.99

BoneOhio

Down — $936.36

+$14.78

Bonereaper

Down — $864.93

+$253.73

Polkadot-Frog

Down — $739.6

+$148.75

1000monkeys

Down — $627.03

almach

Arbitrage — excluded

mo-money

Arbitrage — excluded

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

CTR

Up — $0

-$557.16

Trade on Polymarket