Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down

Bitcoin Up or Down - November 4, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET

Resolved Down. 71% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.

View on Polymarket

RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Down 69%

4 arb excluded

Total Value

$10.2K

Combined PnL

$-2.4K

Smart Money Signal

Down

27 of 38 top traders (71%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed11 hold an outcome priced under 50%16 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down27 traders

Total Value$9.7K

Total Shares9,711

Combined PnL+$1.3K

Up11 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares4,949

Combined PnL$-3.7K

Down — 71%Up — 29%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO hoodquant	Downavg 99.1¢	$2.0K	$1.9K	-$137.72	91% 26779-2517 (29296)
PL ply-pm0	Downavg 45.6¢	$1.1K	$1.3K	+$159.34	50% 6046-6032 (12078)
BO BonereaperCTR	Upavg 43.8¢	$825.61	—	-$825.61	66% 100513-52538 (153051)
NIULAI4	Downavg 84.1¢	$793.7	$740.19	-$53.51	76% 9713-3135 (12848)
10 1000monkeys	Downavg 64.3¢	$697.1	$653.68	-$43.43	59% 10716-7383 (18099)
DV dvasdkasodk	Downavg 73.2¢	$515.88	$636	+$120.12	52% 93062-87484 (180546)
AS asdcaxzCTR	Upavg 45.9¢	$541.97	—	-$541.97	48% 5573-6007 (11580)
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609CTR	Upavg 34.8¢	$362.6	—	-$362.6	67% 101397-49715 (151112)
machinelearned	Downavg 54.9¢	$346.17	$542.81	+$196.64	55% 9424-7798 (17222)
CR CrouchPredictions	Downavg 55¢	$410.89	$567.32	+$156.43	56% 15510-12186 (27696)
MayorMamdani	Downavg 97.4¢	$519.84	$461.83	-$58.01	55% 50634-42081 (92715)
0X 0x50f7	Downavg 99.9¢	$301.74	$302.04	+$0.3	59% 63429-44473 (107902)
BL blue.birdsARB<$100	Upavg 65.2¢	$298.93	$274.6	-$24.33	51% 11083-10569 (21652)
└ Up leg	Upavg 65.2¢	$175.58	—	-$175.58
└ Down leg	Downavg 44.9¢	$123.36	$274.6	+$151.25
AS asdaefef	Downavg 57.7¢	$190.17	$265.89	+$75.72	66% 129276-66666 (195942)
GA gansinimen	Downavg 57¢	$148.29	$254.7	+$106.4	51% 17461-16899 (34360)
Polkadot-Frog	Downavg 44.7¢	$227.43	$258.87	+$38.36	63% 60059-34551 (94610)
PB PBot-6	Downavg 51¢	$410.06	$804.05	+$393.98	58% 51757-37804 (89561)
0X 0xf3326D8Fc30F7Ed01BfAde12c706cb52c397B1c0-1780211395335CTR	Upavg 67.1¢	$316.41	—	-$316.41	53% 10104-9114 (19218)
AS asidjasiodjaCTR<$100	Upavg 14¢	$52.71	—	-$50.97	61% 97755-61856 (159611)
0X 0xB129a54d3b23214728Dcc544034fc83067CD890C-1780260877658	Downavg 76.5¢	$147.96	$192.34	+$44.38	51% 9345-8820 (18165)
AN antsaslykuARB<$100	Upavg 41.8¢	$204.1	$126.12	-$77.98	65% 113900-60785 (174685)
└ Down leg	Downavg 31.6¢	$39.82	$126.12	+$86.3
└ Up leg	Upavg 41.8¢	$164.28	—	-$164.28
PB PBot-5	Downavg 46.7¢	$67.11	$143.81	+$76.71	52% 11814-10830 (22644)
13 13897651	Downavg 60.2¢	$138.13	$181.25	+$43.12	56% 7933-6165 (14098)
OhioAI	Downavg 28.4¢	$29.05	$102.45	+$73.4	54% 10236-8609 (18845)
Atomforge<$100	Downavg 95.9¢	$94.37	$98.4	+$4.03	64% 4704-2651 (7355)

hoodquant

Down

Invested

$1,995.72

Value

$1.9K

PnL

-$137.72

Record

91%

26779-2517 (29296)

ply-pm0

Down

Invested

$1,097.57

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$159.34

Record

50%

6046-6032 (12078)

BonereaperCTR

Invested

$825.61

Value

—

PnL

-$825.61

Record

66%

100513-52538 (153051)

NIULAI4

Down

Invested

$793.7

Value

$740.19

PnL

-$53.51

Record

76%

9713-3135 (12848)

1000monkeys

Down

Invested

$697.1

Value

$653.68

PnL

-$43.43

Record

59%

10716-7383 (18099)

dvasdkasodk

Down

Invested

$515.88

Value

$636

PnL

+$120.12

Record

52%

93062-87484 (180546)

asdcaxzCTR

Invested

$541.97

Value

—

PnL

-$541.97

Record

48%

5573-6007 (11580)

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609CTR

Invested

$362.6

Value

—

PnL

-$362.6

Record

67%

101397-49715 (151112)

machinelearned

Down

Invested

$346.17

Value

$542.81

PnL

+$196.64

Record

55%

9424-7798 (17222)

CrouchPredictions

Down

Invested

$410.89

Value

$567.32

PnL

+$156.43

Record

56%

15510-12186 (27696)

MayorMamdani

Down

Invested

$519.84

Value

$461.83

PnL

-$58.01

Record

55%

50634-42081 (92715)

0x50f7

Down

Invested

$301.74

Value

$302.04

PnL

+$0.3

Record

59%

63429-44473 (107902)

blue.birdsARB<$100

Invested

$298.93

Value

$274.6

PnL

-$24.33

Record

51%

11083-10569 (21652)

Both legs:

Up$175.5865.2¢-$175.58

Down$123.3644.9¢+$151.25

asdaefef

Down

Invested

$190.17

Value

$265.89

PnL

+$75.72

Record

66%

129276-66666 (195942)

gansinimen

Down

Invested

$148.29

Value

$254.7

PnL

+$106.4

Record

51%

17461-16899 (34360)

Polkadot-Frog

Down

Invested

$227.43

Value

$258.87

PnL

+$38.36

Record

63%

60059-34551 (94610)

PBot-6

Down

Invested

$410.06

Value

$804.05

PnL

+$393.98

Record

58%

51757-37804 (89561)

0xf3326D8Fc30F7Ed01BfAde12c706cb52c397B1c0-1780211395335CTR

Invested

$316.41

Value

—

PnL

-$316.41

Record

53%

10104-9114 (19218)

asidjasiodjaCTR<$100

Invested

$52.71

Value

—

PnL

-$50.97

Record

61%

97755-61856 (159611)

0xB129a54d3b23214728Dcc544034fc83067CD890C-1780260877658

Down

Invested

$147.96

Value

$192.34

PnL

+$44.38

Record

51%

9345-8820 (18165)

antsaslykuARB<$100

Invested

$204.1

Value

$126.12

PnL

-$77.98

Record

65%

113900-60785 (174685)

Both legs:

Down$39.8231.6¢+$86.3

Up$164.2841.8¢-$164.28

PBot-5

Down

Invested

$67.11

Value

$143.81

PnL

+$76.71

Record

52%

11814-10830 (22644)

13897651

Down

Invested

$138.13

Value

$181.25

PnL

+$43.12

Record

56%

7933-6165 (14098)

OhioAI

Down

Invested

$29.05

Value

$102.45

PnL

+$73.4

Record

54%

10236-8609 (18845)

Atomforge<$100

Down

Invested

$94.37

Value

$98.4

PnL

+$4.03

Record

64%

4704-2651 (7355)

Smart Money Signal

Down

27 of 38 top traders (71%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed11 hold an outcome priced under 50%16 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

Market Info

Condition ID

0xc7fa9f66...65ed17

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1793815500

Traders in this Market

hoodquant

Down — $1.9K

-$137.72

ply-pm0

Down — $1.3K

+$159.34

Bonereaper

CTR

Up — $0

-$825.61

NIULAI4

Down — $740.19

-$53.51

1000monkeys

Down — $653.68

-$43.43

dvasdkasodk

Down — $636

+$120.12

asdcaxz

CTR

Up — $0

-$541.97

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

CTR

Up — $0

-$362.6

machinelearned

Down — $542.81

+$196.64

CrouchPredictions

Down — $567.32

+$156.43

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