Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down

Bitcoin Up or Down - November 4, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET

Resolved Down. 67% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.

View on Polymarket

RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Down 68%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$21.0K

Combined PnL

$-2.4K

Smart Money Signal

Down

28 of 42 top traders (67%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed14 hold an outcome priced under 50%17 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down28 traders

Total Value$20.7K

Total Shares20,655

Combined PnL+$1.5K

Up14 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares5,921

Combined PnL$-4.0K

Down — 67%Up — 33%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
arcsine-barrister	Downavg 96.5¢	$7.7K	$8.0K	+$280.48	56% 3802-2937 (6739)
TH THG.	Downavg 99¢	$3.2K	$3.2K	+$32.49	56% 29664-23206 (52870)
DA dangerously-skip-permissionsCTR	Upavg 40.9¢	$1.6K	—	$-1.6K	54% 16267-13646 (29913)
BO Bonereaper	Downavg 51.2¢	$1.1K	$1.3K	+$171.83	66% 100505-52530 (153035)
GO GoodFallen	Downavg 61.8¢	$1.0K	$1.1K	+$102.48	55% 14497-11865 (26362)
FairValueMachine	Downavg 60.3¢	$802.59	$1.1K	+$284.95	55% 13193-10785 (23978)
10 1000monkeys	Downavg 66.1¢	$966.22	$991.51	+$25.29	59% 10707-7370 (18077)
AS asdcaxz	Downavg 58.7¢	$855.58	$854.39	-$1.18	48% 5542-5979 (11521)
BL blue.birdsCTR	Upavg 49.1¢	$626.28	—	-$626.28	51% 11049-10545 (21594)
x-MoneyForWhiskas	Downavg 50.9¢	$513.59	$774.58	+$260.99	52% 20812-18896 (39708)
0X 0xf3326D8Fc30F7Ed01BfAde12c706cb52c397B1c0-1780211395335	Downavg 57.4¢	$549.71	$672.48	+$122.78	53% 10098-9104 (19202)
PL ply-pm0CTR	Upavg 39.8¢	$594.34	—	-$594.34	50% 6036-6024 (12060)
NIULAI4	Downavg 83.7¢	$646.7	$602.19	-$44.51	76% 9708-3130 (12838)
CR CrouchPredictionsCTR	Upavg 35.2¢	$500.94	—	-$500.94	56% 15496-12177 (27673)
Polkadot-Frog	Downavg 46.3¢	$284.4	$340.22	+$55.82	63% 60039-34531 (94570)
machinelearnedCTR	Upavg 37.5¢	$303.22	—	-$303.22	55% 9414-7791 (17205)
BO bosona	Downavg 83.4¢	$288.18	$345.64	+$57.46	55% 51185-41537 (92722)
HO hoodquant	Downavg 99¢	$183.25	$185.1	+$1.85	91% 26742-2516 (29258)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518	Downavg 54.6¢	$135.25	$207.15	+$71.9	58% 39485-28519 (68004)
0X 0xB129a54d3b23214728Dcc544034fc83067CD890C-1780260877658ARB<$100	Downavg 55.4¢	$158.15	$149.08	-$9.07	51% 9337-8812 (18149)
└ Down leg	Downavg 55.4¢	$82.61	$149.08	+$66.47
└ Up leg	Upavg 35.1¢	$75.54	—	-$75.54
WZ wzbbbARB<$100	Upavg 56.1¢	$221.62	$85.72	-$135.89	56% 8923-7003 (15926)
└ Up leg	Upavg 56.1¢	$169.89	—	-$169.89
└ Down leg	Downavg 60.3¢	$51.73	$85.72	+$34
AL almach	Downavg 82.6¢	$119.17	$144.19	+$25.02	55% 49727-41275 (91002)
OhioAIARB<$100	Downavg 75.9¢	$161.07	$122.77	-$38.3	54% 10227-8598 (18825)
└ Down leg	Downavg 75.9¢	$93.23	$122.77	+$29.54
└ Up leg	Upavg 37.5¢	$67.84	—	-$67.84
EZ EZTRADENL2	Downavg 61.6¢	$129.87	$127.66	-$2.22	57% 12337-9329 (21666)
MO mo-money	Downavg 85¢	$148.8	$175.09	+$26.29	55% 51819-42268 (94087)

arcsine-barrister

Down

Invested

$7,716

Value

$8.0K

PnL

+$280.48

Record

56%

3802-2937 (6739)

THG.

Down

Invested

$3,216.51

Value

$3.2K

PnL

+$32.49

Record

56%

29664-23206 (52870)

dangerously-skip-permissionsCTR

Invested

$1,625.16

Value

—

PnL

$-1.6K

Record

54%

16267-13646 (29913)

Bonereaper

Down

Invested

$1,097.16

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$171.83

Record

66%

100505-52530 (153035)

GoodFallen

Down

Invested

$1,031.65

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$102.48

Record

55%

14497-11865 (26362)

FairValueMachine

Down

Invested

$802.59

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$284.95

Record

55%

13193-10785 (23978)

1000monkeys

Down

Invested

$966.22

Value

$991.51

PnL

+$25.29

Record

59%

10707-7370 (18077)

asdcaxz

Down

Invested

$855.58

Value

$854.39

PnL

-$1.18

Record

48%

5542-5979 (11521)

blue.birdsCTR

Invested

$626.28

Value

—

PnL

-$626.28

Record

51%

11049-10545 (21594)

x-MoneyForWhiskas

Down

Invested

$513.59

Value

$774.58

PnL

+$260.99

Record

52%

20812-18896 (39708)

0xf3326D8Fc30F7Ed01BfAde12c706cb52c397B1c0-1780211395335

Down

Invested

$549.71

Value

$672.48

PnL

+$122.78

Record

53%

10098-9104 (19202)

ply-pm0CTR

Invested

$594.34

Value

—

PnL

-$594.34

Record

50%

6036-6024 (12060)

NIULAI4

Down

Invested

$646.7

Value

$602.19

PnL

-$44.51

Record

76%

9708-3130 (12838)

CrouchPredictionsCTR

Invested

$500.94

Value

—

PnL

-$500.94

Record

56%

15496-12177 (27673)

Polkadot-Frog

Down

Invested

$284.4

Value

$340.22

PnL

+$55.82

Record

63%

60039-34531 (94570)

machinelearnedCTR

Invested

$303.22

Value

—

PnL

-$303.22

Record

55%

9414-7791 (17205)

bosona

Down

Invested

$288.18

Value

$345.64

PnL

+$57.46

Record

55%

51185-41537 (92722)

hoodquant

Down

Invested

$183.25

Value

$185.1

PnL

+$1.85

Record

91%

26742-2516 (29258)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

Down

Invested

$135.25

Value

$207.15

PnL

+$71.9

Record

58%

39485-28519 (68004)

0xB129a54d3b23214728Dcc544034fc83067CD890C-1780260877658ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$158.15

Value

$149.08

PnL

-$9.07

Record

51%

9337-8812 (18149)

Both legs:

Down$82.6155.4¢+$66.47

Up$75.5435.1¢-$75.54

wzbbbARB<$100

Invested

$221.62

Value

$85.72

PnL

-$135.89

Record

56%

8923-7003 (15926)

Both legs:

Up$169.8956.1¢-$169.89

Down$51.7360.3¢+$34

almach

Down

Invested

$119.17

Value

$144.19

PnL

+$25.02

Record

55%

49727-41275 (91002)

OhioAIARB<$100

Down

Invested

$161.07

Value

$122.77

PnL

-$38.3

Record

54%

10227-8598 (18825)

Both legs:

Down$93.2375.9¢+$29.54

Up$67.8437.5¢-$67.84

EZTRADENL2

Down

Invested

$129.87

Value

$127.66

PnL

-$2.22

Record

57%

12337-9329 (21666)

mo-money

Down

Invested

$148.8

Value

$175.09

PnL

+$26.29

Record

55%

51819-42268 (94087)

Smart Money Signal

Down

28 of 42 top traders (67%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed14 hold an outcome priced under 50%17 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

Market Info

Condition ID

0x62e64bad...d810b3

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1793799900

Traders in this Market

arcsine-barrister

Down — $8.0K

+$280.48

THG.

Down — $3.2K

+$32.49

dangerously-skip-permissions

CTR

Up — $0

$-1.6K

Bonereaper

Down — $1.3K

+$171.83

GoodFallen

Down — $1.1K

+$102.48

FairValueMachine

Down — $1.1K

+$284.95

1000monkeys

Down — $991.51

+$25.29

asdcaxz

Down — $854.39

-$1.18

blue.birds

CTR

Up — $0

-$626.28

x-MoneyForWhiskas

Down — $774.58

+$260.99

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