Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down

Bitcoin Up or Down - November 4, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET

Resolved Down. 67% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.

View on Polymarket

RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Down 65%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$14.5K

Combined PnL

$-1.2K

Smart Money Signal

Down

28 of 42 top traders (67%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed14 hold an outcome priced under 50%21 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down28 traders

Total Value$14.3K

Total Shares14,300

Combined PnL+$82.72

Up14 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares2,481

Combined PnL$-1.3K

Down — 67%Up — 33%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BO Bonereaper	Downavg 88.2¢	$3.7K	$3.7K	+$1.05	66% 100505-52530 (153035)
BoneOhio	Downavg 99.1¢	$3.4K	$3.4K	+$32.73	74% 104319-36841 (141160)
HO hoodquant	Downavg 99¢	$1.6K	$1.6K	+$15.52	91% 26742-2516 (29258)
TH THG.	Downavg 99¢	$1.3K	$1.3K	+$12.69	56% 29664-23206 (52870)
DA dangerously-skip-permissions	Downavg 53.5¢	$945.29	$910.89	-$34.4	54% 16267-13646 (29913)
GA gansinimen	Downavg 82.5¢	$720.17	$606.24	-$113.93	51% 17458-16898 (34356)
x-MoneyForWhiskas	Downavg 52.1¢	$308.27	$455.86	+$147.59	52% 20812-18896 (39708)
GO GoodFallen	Downavg 62.2¢	$374.72	$383.15	+$8.43	55% 14497-11865 (26362)
pspspsps5	Downavg 99¢	$367.69	$353.5	-$14.19	46% 39414-46931 (86345)
CR CrouchPredictionsCTR	Upavg 25.7¢	$397.53	—	-$397.53	56% 15496-12177 (27673)
BL blue.birds	Downavg 59¢	$216.39	$250.25	+$33.87	51% 11049-10545 (21594)
10 1000monkeys	Downavg 56.9¢	$222.85	$226.68	+$3.84	59% 10707-7370 (18077)
Polkadot-FrogCTR	Upavg 48.8¢	$258.31	—	-$258.31	63% 60039-34531 (94570)
PL ply-pm0	Downavg 77.4¢	$223.77	$187.09	-$36.68	50% 6036-6024 (12060)
FairValueMachine	Downavg 57.9¢	$150.06	$183.99	+$33.92	55% 13193-10785 (23978)
MayorMamdani	Downavg 99¢	$180.7	$165	-$15.7	55% 50608-42054 (92662)
BO bosonaCTR	Upavg 29.8¢	$150.4	—	-$150.4	55% 51185-41537 (92722)
AS asdcaxzCTR	Upavg 27.1¢	$118.99	—	-$118.99	48% 5542-5979 (11521)
WZ wzbbbARB<$100	Downavg 52.5¢	$113.15	$124.75	+$11.6	56% 8923-7003 (15926)
└ Down leg	Downavg 52.5¢	$65.52	$124.75	+$59.23
└ Up leg	Upavg 56.2¢	$47.62	—	-$47.62
MO mo-moneyARB<$100	Downavg 26¢	$52.43	$111.56	+$59.13	55% 51819-42268 (94087)
└ Down leg	Downavg 26¢	$29.01	$111.56	+$82.56
└ Up leg	Upavg 21¢	$23.42	—	-$23.42
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609<$100	Downavg 41.9¢	$78.16	$94.71	+$16.55	67% 101382-49705 (151087)
AS asdaefef	Downavg 77.6¢	$101.4	$91.33	-$10.06	66% 129245-66642 (195887)
DR drfc4eybh7i8	Downavg 65.4¢	$100.37	$83.43	-$6.32	65% 128717-68964 (197681)
machinelearnedCTR	Upavg 61.9¢	$129.52	—	-$129.52	55% 9414-7791 (17205)
PA PapeasyCTR<$100	Upavg 54.1¢	$47.15	—	-$47.15	49% 3690-3811 (7501)

Bonereaper

Down

Invested

$3,708

Value

$3.7K

PnL

+$1.05

Record

66%

100505-52530 (153035)

BoneOhio

Down

Invested

$3,413.73

Value

$3.4K

PnL

+$32.73

Record

74%

104319-36841 (141160)

hoodquant

Down

Invested

$1,594.48

Value

$1.6K

PnL

+$15.52

Record

91%

26742-2516 (29258)

THG.

Down

Invested

$1,256.31

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$12.69

Record

56%

29664-23206 (52870)

dangerously-skip-permissions

Down

Invested

$945.29

Value

$910.89

PnL

-$34.4

Record

54%

16267-13646 (29913)

gansinimen

Down

Invested

$720.17

Value

$606.24

PnL

-$113.93

Record

51%

17458-16898 (34356)

x-MoneyForWhiskas

Down

Invested

$308.27

Value

$455.86

PnL

+$147.59

Record

52%

20812-18896 (39708)

GoodFallen

Down

Invested

$374.72

Value

$383.15

PnL

+$8.43

Record

55%

14497-11865 (26362)

pspspsps5

Down

Invested

$367.69

Value

$353.5

PnL

-$14.19

Record

46%

39414-46931 (86345)

CrouchPredictionsCTR

Invested

$397.53

Value

—

PnL

-$397.53

Record

56%

15496-12177 (27673)

blue.birds

Down

Invested

$216.39

Value

$250.25

PnL

+$33.87

Record

51%

11049-10545 (21594)

1000monkeys

Down

Invested

$222.85

Value

$226.68

PnL

+$3.84

Record

59%

10707-7370 (18077)

Polkadot-FrogCTR

Invested

$258.31

Value

—

PnL

-$258.31

Record

63%

60039-34531 (94570)

ply-pm0

Down

Invested

$223.77

Value

$187.09

PnL

-$36.68

Record

50%

6036-6024 (12060)

FairValueMachine

Down

Invested

$150.06

Value

$183.99

PnL

+$33.92

Record

55%

13193-10785 (23978)

MayorMamdani

Down

Invested

$180.7

Value

$165

PnL

-$15.7

Record

55%

50608-42054 (92662)

bosonaCTR

Invested

$150.4

Value

—

PnL

-$150.4

Record

55%

51185-41537 (92722)

asdcaxzCTR

Invested

$118.99

Value

—

PnL

-$118.99

Record

48%

5542-5979 (11521)

wzbbbARB<$100

Down

Invested

$113.15

Value

$124.75

PnL

+$11.6

Record

56%

8923-7003 (15926)

Both legs:

Down$65.5252.5¢+$59.23

Up$47.6256.2¢-$47.62

mo-moneyARB<$100

Down

Invested

$52.43

Value

$111.56

PnL

+$59.13

Record

55%

51819-42268 (94087)

Both legs:

Down$29.0126¢+$82.56

Up$23.4221¢-$23.42

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609<$100

Down

Invested

$78.16

Value

$94.71

PnL

+$16.55

Record

67%

101382-49705 (151087)

asdaefef

Down

Invested

$101.4

Value

$91.33

PnL

-$10.06

Record

66%

129245-66642 (195887)

drfc4eybh7i8

Down

Invested

$100.37

Value

$83.43

PnL

-$6.32

Record

65%

128717-68964 (197681)

machinelearnedCTR

Invested

$129.52

Value

—

PnL

-$129.52

Record

55%

9414-7791 (17205)

PapeasyCTR<$100

Invested

$47.15

Value

—

PnL

-$47.15

Record

49%

3690-3811 (7501)

Smart Money Signal

Down

28 of 42 top traders (67%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed14 hold an outcome priced under 50%21 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

Market Info

Condition ID

0xb918b76b...868549

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1793800800

Traders in this Market

Bonereaper

Down — $3.7K

+$1.05

BoneOhio

Down — $3.4K

+$32.73

hoodquant

Down — $1.6K

+$15.52

THG.

Down — $1.3K

+$12.69

dangerously-skip-permissions

Down — $910.89

-$34.4

gansinimen

Down — $606.24

-$113.93

x-MoneyForWhiskas

Down — $455.86

+$147.59

GoodFallen

Down — $383.15

+$8.43

pspspsps5

Down — $353.5

CrouchPredictions

Up — $0