Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down

Bitcoin Up or Down - November 2, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET

Resolved Down. 74% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.

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RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Down 74%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$16.3K

Combined PnL

$-1.6K

Smart Money Signal

Down

37 of 50 top traders (74%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed13 hold an outcome priced under 50%30 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down37 traders

Total Value$16.2K

Total Shares16,189

Combined PnL$-1.3K

Up13 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares4,009

Combined PnL-$318.42

Down — 74%Up — 26%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
AR arcsine-barrister	Down	$8.0K	$8.0K	$-2.1K	56% 3715-2865 (6580)
HO hoodquant	Downavg 98.2¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	+$20.04	93% 24866-1838 (26704)
CR CrouchPredictions	Downavg 83.8¢	$785.76	$923.77	+$138.01	56% 15085-11833 (26918)
0X 0xd33d0d185cd215162c86cb481cd01acdc7d28489	Downavg 99¢	$898.03	$907.1	+$9.07	77% 208-63 (271)
UN uninformedfloww	Downavg 79.8¢	$479.65	$595.7	+$116.05	57% 72544-55201 (127745)
DA dangerously-skip-permissions	Downavg 67.6¢	$500.06	$519.72	+$19.66	55% 15927-13256 (29183)
PL ply-pm0	Downavg 90.4¢	$480.15	$495.91	+$15.76	50% 5727-5762 (11489)
BL blue.birds	Downavg 80¢	$376.36	$377.03	+$0.66	51% 10167-9750 (19917)
10 1000monkeys	Downavg 71.9¢	$278.58	$327.15	+$48.57	60% 7816-5265 (13081)
ST stepahead	Downavg 68.5¢	$259.9	$304.79	+$44.89	55% 8761-7282 (16043)
ST std0	Downavg 92.5¢	$296.32	$293.44	-$2.88	67% 53356-26743 (80099)
0X 0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989	Downavg 83.4¢	$789.44	$276.57	+$8.21	53% 7951-6997 (14948)
0X 0x941743De228c1339B996ae09cc84BD8179D86e5e-1780214631894	Downavg 64.3¢	$246.96	$224.52	-$22.44	65% 15134-8146 (23280)
GA gansinimen	Downavg 78¢	$160.99	$199.99	+$39	51% 17237-16746 (33983)
GO GoodFallen	Downavg 54.2¢	$115.48	$182.27	+$66.8	56% 14156-11253 (25409)
x-MoneyForWhiskas	Downavg 69.1¢	$146.94	$154.78	+$7.84	53% 17530-15791 (33321)
RE Repentant-Dealer-Gliding	Downavg 84.7¢	$136.94	$149.27	+$12.33	60% 12711-8474 (21185)
AS asdcaxz	Downavg 75.9¢	$121.83	$135.83	+$14	48% 4685-5102 (9787)
13 13897651ARB<$100	Upavg 50.8¢	$133.35	$111.84	-$21.51	59% 7232-5095 (12327)
└ Up leg	Upavg 50.8¢	$78.5	—	-$78.5
└ Down leg	Downavg 49¢	$54.85	$111.84	+$56.99
0X 0x280E296e5f14091642208Ac24614826D9902fbd8-1780260958670	Downavg 39.3¢	$85.55	$217.44	+$131.89	52% 13109-11920 (25029)
0X 0x3708CEF9f92678DF15A0473e36c45d68A16cdAf9-1780222715877	Downavg 85¢	$86.26	$101.49	+$15.22	52% 7538-6896 (14434)
0X 0xB129a54d3b23214728Dcc544034fc83067CD890C-1780260877658CTR<$100	Upavg 47.2¢	$79.51	—	-$79.51	52% 9057-8529 (17586)
AL Alpharo28<$100	Downavg 49.5¢	$42.98	$79.99	+$37.01	50% 37381-37254 (74635)
VE Vega7CTR<$100	Upavg 1¢	$15	—	-$15	73% 2946-1093 (4039)
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100	Downavg 98¢	$58.8	$60	+$1.2	65% 127125-67915 (195040)

arcsine-barrister

Down

Invested

$7,995

Value

$8.0K

PnL

$-2.1K

Record

56%

3715-2865 (6580)

hoodquant

Down

Invested

$1,113.95

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$20.04

Record

93%

24866-1838 (26704)

CrouchPredictions

Down

Invested

$785.76

Value

$923.77

PnL

+$138.01

Record

56%

15085-11833 (26918)

0xd33d0d185cd215162c86cb481cd01acdc7d28489

Down

Invested

$898.03

Value

$907.1

PnL

+$9.07

Record

77%

208-63 (271)

uninformedfloww

Down

Invested

$479.65

Value

$595.7

PnL

+$116.05

Record

57%

72544-55201 (127745)

dangerously-skip-permissions

Down

Invested

$500.06

Value

$519.72

PnL

+$19.66

Record

55%

15927-13256 (29183)

ply-pm0

Down

Invested

$480.15

Value

$495.91

PnL

+$15.76

Record

50%

5727-5762 (11489)

blue.birds

Down

Invested

$376.36

Value

$377.03

PnL

+$0.66

Record

51%

10167-9750 (19917)

1000monkeys

Down

Invested

$278.58

Value

$327.15

PnL

+$48.57

Record

60%

7816-5265 (13081)

stepahead

Down

Invested

$259.9

Value

$304.79

PnL

+$44.89

Record

55%

8761-7282 (16043)

std0

Down

Invested

$296.32

Value

$293.44

PnL

-$2.88

Record

67%

53356-26743 (80099)

0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989

Down

Invested

$789.44

Value

$276.57

PnL

+$8.21

Record

53%

7951-6997 (14948)

0x941743De228c1339B996ae09cc84BD8179D86e5e-1780214631894

Down

Invested

$246.96

Value

$224.52

PnL

-$22.44

Record

65%

15134-8146 (23280)

gansinimen

Down

Invested

$160.99

Value

$199.99

PnL

+$39

Record

51%

17237-16746 (33983)

GoodFallen

Down

Invested

$115.48

Value

$182.27

PnL

+$66.8

Record

56%

14156-11253 (25409)

x-MoneyForWhiskas

Down

Invested

$146.94

Value

$154.78

PnL

+$7.84

Record

53%

17530-15791 (33321)

Repentant-Dealer-Gliding

Down

Invested

$136.94

Value

$149.27

PnL

+$12.33

Record

60%

12711-8474 (21185)

asdcaxz

Down

Invested

$121.83

Value

$135.83

PnL

+$14

Record

48%

4685-5102 (9787)

13897651ARB<$100

Invested

$133.35

Value

$111.84

PnL

-$21.51

Record

59%

7232-5095 (12327)

Both legs:

Up$78.550.8¢-$78.5

Down$54.8549¢+$56.99

0x280E296e5f14091642208Ac24614826D9902fbd8-1780260958670

Down

Invested

$85.55

Value

$217.44

PnL

+$131.89

Record

52%

13109-11920 (25029)

0x3708CEF9f92678DF15A0473e36c45d68A16cdAf9-1780222715877

Down

Invested

$86.26

Value

$101.49

PnL

+$15.22

Record

52%

7538-6896 (14434)

0xB129a54d3b23214728Dcc544034fc83067CD890C-1780260877658CTR<$100

Invested

$79.51

Value

—

PnL

-$79.51

Record

52%

9057-8529 (17586)

Alpharo28<$100

Down

Invested

$42.98

Value

$79.99

PnL

+$37.01

Record

50%

37381-37254 (74635)

Vega7CTR<$100

Invested

$15

Value

—

PnL

-$15

Record

73%

2946-1093 (4039)

drfc4eybh7i8<$100

Down

Invested

$58.8

Value

$60

PnL

+$1.2

Record

65%

127125-67915 (195040)

Smart Money Signal

Down

37 of 50 top traders (74%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed13 hold an outcome priced under 50%30 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

Market Info

Condition ID

0xd9654ac5...b237dc

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1793629500

Traders in this Market

arcsine-barrister

Down — $8.0K

$-2.1K

hoodquant

Down — $1.1K

+$20.04

CrouchPredictions

Down — $923.77

+$138.01

0xd33d0d185cd215162c86cb481cd01acdc7d28489

Down — $907.1

+$9.07

uninformedfloww

Down — $595.7

+$116.05

dangerously-skip-permissions

Down — $519.72

+$19.66

ply-pm0

Down — $495.91

+$15.76

blue.birds

Down — $377.03

+$0.66

1000monkeys

Down — $327.15

+$48.57

stepahead

Down — $304.79

+$44.89

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