Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down

Bitcoin Up or Down - November 2, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET

Resolved Down. 70% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.

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RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Down 70%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$32.3K

Combined PnL

$468.65

Smart Money Signal

Down

32 of 46 top traders (70%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed14 hold an outcome priced under 50%23 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down32 traders

Total Value$32.2K

Total Shares32,196

Combined PnL+$893.37

Up14 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares2,046

Combined PnL-$424.72

Down — 70%Up — 30%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xd33d0d185cd215162c86cb481cd01acdc7d28489	Downavg 99.9¢	$14.5K	$14.5K	+$14.48	77% 208-63 (271)
AR arcsine-barrister	Down	$8.0K	$8.0K	+$12.44	56% 3715-2865 (6580)
HC Hcrystallash	Downavg 98.6¢	$1.8K	$1.8K	-$8.76	29% 11004-26846 (37850)
CR CrouchPredictions	Downavg 87.7¢	$1.1K	$1.2K	+$109.77	56% 15085-11833 (26918)
cryingbabydicer87	Downavg 99.5¢	$930.17	$934.71	+$4.54	48% 9289-10165 (19454)
HO hoodquant	Downavg 98¢	$882	$900	+$18	93% 24866-1838 (26704)
UN uninformedfloww	Downavg 73.4¢	$756	$1.0K	+$245.12	57% 72544-55201 (127745)
DA dangerously-skip-permissions	Downavg 72.9¢	$439.57	$456.47	+$16.9	55% 15927-13256 (29183)
BL blue.birds	Downavg 74¢	$377.44	$395.78	+$18.34	51% 10167-9750 (19917)
ST stepahead	Downavg 66.7¢	$372.81	$382.27	+$9.46	55% 8761-7282 (16043)
x-MoneyForWhiskas	Downavg 75.2¢	$346.75	$354.4	+$7.66	53% 17530-15791 (33321)
FairValueMachine	Downavg 67.8¢	$234.28	$319.2	+$84.91	56% 12863-9909 (22772)
AS asdcaxz	Downavg 67.8¢	$180.66	$252.45	+$71.79	48% 4685-5102 (9787)
PL ply-pm0	Downavg 67.6¢	$184.79	$208.96	+$24.17	50% 5727-5762 (11489)
ST std0	Downavg 77.9¢	$178.37	$213.14	+$34.77	67% 53356-26743 (80099)
10 1000monkeys	Downavg 75.4¢	$168.72	$184.44	+$15.72	60% 7816-5265 (13081)
PB PBot-6CTR	Upavg 47.1¢	$125.08	—	-$125.08	58% 51506-37568 (89074)
GO GoodFallenARB<$100	Upavg 27.8¢	$143.07	$96.55	-$46.52	56% 14156-11253 (25409)
└ Down leg	Downavg 69.7¢	$67.34	$96.55	+$29.21
└ Up leg	Upavg 27.8¢	$75.73	—	-$75.73
GA gansinimen	Downavg 78.9¢	$85.86	$107.56	+$21.71	51% 17237-16746 (33983)
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e	Downavg 73.3¢	$87.55	$119.37	+$31.82	55% 7933-6479 (14412)
0X 0x7743AEa53ACd19E496C1C515EB0a143fb437fB42-1780258394212	Downavg 97¢	$185.69	$101.5	-$84.19	52% 7507-6938 (14445)
machinelearned	Downavg 75.1¢	$81.24	$108.14	+$26.89	55% 9108-7524 (16632)
0X 0xB129a54d3b23214728Dcc544034fc83067CD890C-1780260877658	Downavg 70¢	$84.33	$120.56	+$36.22	52% 9057-8529 (17586)
AL Alpharo28ARB<$100	Upavg 46.5¢	$62.88	$48	-$14.88	50% 37381-37254 (74635)
└ Up leg	Upavg 46.5¢	$37.2	—	-$37.2
└ Down leg	Downavg 53.5¢	$25.68	$48	+$22.32
AA aaa221<$100	Downavg 77¢	$45.94	$56.31	+$10.37	64% 25897-14422 (40319)

0xd33d0d185cd215162c86cb481cd01acdc7d28489

Down

Invested

$14,464.97

Value

$14.5K

PnL

+$14.48

Record

77%

208-63 (271)

arcsine-barrister

Down

Invested

$7,994.88

Value

$8.0K

PnL

+$12.44

Record

56%

3715-2865 (6580)

Hcrystallash

Down

Invested

$1,829.39

Value

$1.8K

PnL

-$8.76

Record

29%

11004-26846 (37850)

CrouchPredictions

Down

Invested

$1,127.85

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$109.77

Record

56%

15085-11833 (26918)

cryingbabydicer87

Down

Invested

$930.17

Value

$934.71

PnL

+$4.54

Record

48%

9289-10165 (19454)

hoodquant

Down

Invested

$882

Value

$900

PnL

+$18

Record

93%

24866-1838 (26704)

uninformedfloww

Down

Invested

$756

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$245.12

Record

57%

72544-55201 (127745)

dangerously-skip-permissions

Down

Invested

$439.57

Value

$456.47

PnL

+$16.9

Record

55%

15927-13256 (29183)

blue.birds

Down

Invested

$377.44

Value

$395.78

PnL

+$18.34

Record

51%

10167-9750 (19917)

stepahead

Down

Invested

$372.81

Value

$382.27

PnL

+$9.46

Record

55%

8761-7282 (16043)

x-MoneyForWhiskas

Down

Invested

$346.75

Value

$354.4

PnL

+$7.66

Record

53%

17530-15791 (33321)

FairValueMachine

Down

Invested

$234.28

Value

$319.2

PnL

+$84.91

Record

56%

12863-9909 (22772)

asdcaxz

Down

Invested

$180.66

Value

$252.45

PnL

+$71.79

Record

48%

4685-5102 (9787)

ply-pm0

Down

Invested

$184.79

Value

$208.96

PnL

+$24.17

Record

50%

5727-5762 (11489)

std0

Down

Invested

$178.37

Value

$213.14

PnL

+$34.77

Record

67%

53356-26743 (80099)

1000monkeys

Down

Invested

$168.72

Value

$184.44

PnL

+$15.72

Record

60%

7816-5265 (13081)

PBot-6CTR

Invested

$125.08

Value

—

PnL

-$125.08

Record

58%

51506-37568 (89074)

GoodFallenARB<$100

Invested

$143.07

Value

$96.55

PnL

-$46.52

Record

56%

14156-11253 (25409)

Both legs:

Down$67.3469.7¢+$29.21

Up$75.7327.8¢-$75.73

gansinimen

Down

Invested

$85.86

Value

$107.56

PnL

+$21.71

Record

51%

17237-16746 (33983)

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e

Down

Invested

$87.55

Value

$119.37

PnL

+$31.82

Record

55%

7933-6479 (14412)

0x7743AEa53ACd19E496C1C515EB0a143fb437fB42-1780258394212

Down

Invested

$185.69

Value

$101.5

PnL

-$84.19

Record

52%

7507-6938 (14445)

machinelearned

Down

Invested

$81.24

Value

$108.14

PnL

+$26.89

Record

55%

9108-7524 (16632)

0xB129a54d3b23214728Dcc544034fc83067CD890C-1780260877658

Down

Invested

$84.33

Value

$120.56

PnL

+$36.22

Record

52%

9057-8529 (17586)

Alpharo28ARB<$100

Invested

$62.88

Value

$48

PnL

-$14.88

Record

50%

37381-37254 (74635)

Both legs:

Up$37.246.5¢-$37.2

Down$25.6853.5¢+$22.32

aaa221<$100

Down

Invested

$45.94

Value

$56.31

PnL

+$10.37

Record

64%

25897-14422 (40319)

Smart Money Signal

Down

32 of 46 top traders (70%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed14 hold an outcome priced under 50%23 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

Market Info

Condition ID

0x2fc6be6e...ce3c72

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1793629200

Traders in this Market

0xd33d0d185cd215162c86cb481cd01acdc7d28489

Down — $14.5K

+$14.48

arcsine-barrister

Down — $8.0K

+$12.44

Hcrystallash

Down — $1.8K

-$8.76

CrouchPredictions

Down — $1.2K

+$109.77

cryingbabydicer87

Down — $934.71

+$4.54

hoodquant

Down — $900

+$18

uninformedfloww

Down — $1.0K

+$245.12

dangerously-skip-permissions

Down — $456.47

+$16.9

blue.birds

Down — $395.78

+$18.34

stepahead

Down — $382.27

+$9.46

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