Fortaleza EC vs. Vila Nova FC: O/U 2.5

8 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Under (80%) · Under at 61¢ · $1K held · ended Nov 14

Over40¢Under60¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 80%

Total Value

$1.3K

Combined PnL

$7.84

Smart Money Entry

50¢ → 60.5¢

+21% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 61%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

8 of 10 top traders (80%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over40%

Under61%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under8 traders

Total Value$1.2K

Total Shares2,355

Combined PnL+$6.55

Over2 traders

Total Value$120.58

Total Shares236

Combined PnL+$1.28

Under — 80%Over — 20%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+3 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 80%

Freshness

Fresh

5h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

78% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 80% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUnder 83% · 6

Aligned

Top 1000Under 78% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp	Underavg 50.7¢	$525.8	$523.66	-$2.14	49% 3959-4107 (8066)
MA MadridTime	Underavg 49.7¢	$406.95	$413.74	+$6.79	38% 1014-1686 (2700)
ZT ZTMZqClEsjMmwCDWXoGCTR	Overavg 51.1¢	$114	$113.83	-$0.17	35% 269-489 (758)
GC GC-P<$100	Underavg 49¢	$93.06	$93.06	-$0	37% 367-618 (985)
LI Limousin<$100	Underavg 49¢	$79.44	$81.87	+$2.43	36% 975-1701 (2676)
FE ferdinand2<$100	Underavg 49¢	$36.26	$37	+$0.74	48% 2157-2304 (4461)
SE sentrio<$100	Underavg 49.9¢	$23.33	$23.33	-$0	42% 1030-1415 (2445)
GO GoalLineGhost<$100	Underavg 50¢	$16.78	$15.57	-$1.22	53% 2162-1905 (4067)
DA DanielsDixonCTR<$100	Overavg 40¢	$5.3	$6.75	+$1.46	21% 16-62 (78)
VE Venusian<$100	Underavg 50¢	$2.83	$2.77	-$0.06	37% 991-1715 (2706)

Flaznorp

Under

Invested

$525.8

Value

$523.66

PnL

-$2.14

Record

49%

3959-4107 (8066)

MadridTime

Under

Invested

$406.95

Value

$413.74

PnL

+$6.79

Record

38%

1014-1686 (2700)

ZTMZqClEsjMmwCDWXoGCTR

Over

Invested

$114

Value

$113.83

PnL

-$0.17

Record

35%

269-489 (758)

GC-P<$100

Under

Invested

$93.06

Value

$93.06

PnL

-$0

Record

37%

367-618 (985)

Limousin<$100

Under

Invested

$79.44

Value

$81.87

PnL

+$2.43

Record

36%

975-1701 (2676)

ferdinand2<$100

Under

Invested

$36.26

Value

$37

PnL

+$0.74

Record

48%

2157-2304 (4461)

sentrio<$100

Under

Invested

$23.33

Value

$23.33

PnL

-$0

Record

42%

1030-1415 (2445)

GoalLineGhost<$100

Under

Invested

$16.78

Value

$15.57

PnL

-$1.22

Record

53%

2162-1905 (4067)

DanielsDixonCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$5.3

Value

$6.75

PnL

+$1.46

Record

21%

16-62 (78)

Venusian<$100

Under

Invested

$2.83

Value

$2.77

PnL

-$0.06

Record

37%

991-1715 (2706)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 61%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Under

8 of 10 top traders (80%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+3 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 80%

Freshness

Fresh

5h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

78% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 80% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUnder 83% · 6

Aligned

Top 1000Under 78% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance62.7%

60.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$59.53

Max Loss

-$100.00

159.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.